Statement Expiring in 3... 2... 1... (4)

[BPSCG]

President-elect Barack Obama said that Democrats and Republicans need to act with urgency to address the “great and growing” economic crisis, warning of double-digit unemployment if swift action isn’t taken.

“These are America’s problems, and we must come together as Americans to meet them with the urgency this moment demands,” he said today in his weekly radio address. “If we don’t act swiftly and boldly, we could see a much deeper economic downturn that could lead to double-digit unemployment.”

Link

In an interview with Bloomberg News’ Al Hunt today, President Obama says he thinks unemployment will hit 10% this year.

Will unemployment reach 10%? asks Hunt.

“Yes,” says the president.

Before the end of this year? asks Hunt.

“Yes,” says the president.

“I think that what you’ve seen is that the pace of job loss has slowed,” Mr. Obama says, “and I think that the economy is going to turn around. But as you know, jobs are a lagging indicator. And we've got to produce 150,000 jobs every month just to keep pace.”

But, he said, “we will end up seeing recovery shortly.”

In January, the incoming administration predicted in a white paper study that without a huge stimulus package, unemployment would reach just over 8%, and would be contained at under 8% with a stimulus package.

Link

 

[Upchurch]

You're too late. Zig and BAC have already flogged that deceased equine.

 

[maddog]

You're too late. Zig and BAC have already flogged that deceased equine.

Late, perhaps. But still -- doesn't this topic get a lot more credibility coming from BPSCG than the others? BAC has been known to border on trolldom at times, but BPSCG is generally highly respected.

 

[Oliver]

Is the end of the world near, or what is the intend of the thread?

 

[Upchurch]

Late, perhaps. But still -- doesn't this topic get a lot more credibility coming from BPSCG than the others? BAC has been known to border on trolldom at times, but BPSCG is generally highly respected.

You haven't been following his "Statement Expiring in 3... 2... 1..." series, have you? There hasn't been one yet that wasn't a bucket full of fail.

• First
• Second
• Third
• Bonus

This is the best one he's had and all it proves is that Obama isn't the omniscient being that nobody was claiming he was.

 

[Beeyon]

I for one hope that Obama does not use unemployment in order to excuse even more 'bold' policy making.


If you don't like the sound of barking dogs, let them rest.

 

[linusrichard]

I'm trying to figure out how the second statement contradicts the first without affirming the consequent or similar. Can't do it.

 

[maddog]

You haven't been following his "Statement Expiring in 3... 2... 1..." series, have you? There hasn't been one yet that wasn't a bucket full of fail.

• First
• Second
• Third
• Bonus

This is the best one he's had and all it proves is that Obama isn't the omniscient being that nobody was claiming he was.

Actually, I read them. And none of them were "bucket full of fail" -- they simply failed to worship the Lord Messiah Obama -- which is apparently problematic for you. Omniscient? Hell, a news guy compared him to god last week. I'm not making up calling him the "messiah", others were doing so -- and seriously, I might add -- before the election.

Personally, even if it seems a bit repetitive to you, I think Beeps is right on target, and a freaking needed wake-up call to anybody who will open-mindedly listen! I don't want to see books being written in a couple years called "The Gospel of Lord Messiah Obama"

Plus, that sumbitch said he was gonna pay my mortgage, and oddly enough, Wells Fargo keeps insisting that *I* pay it.

 

[Upchurch]

Actually, I read them. And none of them were "bucket full of fail" -- they simply failed to worship the Lord Messiah Obama -- which is apparently problematic for you.

Strawman argument aside, each thread fundamentally failed to show what Beeps attempted to show, namely a contradiction in what Obama had said previously to what he was saying currently (or, rather, at the time of the thread).

In the first thread, Obama said he would not help speculators. Later, Freddie and Fannie said they would. That is not a contradiction in what Obama said he would do.

In the second thread, Obama said one thing about taxing insurance benefits. Later, various White House advisers said something else.

In the third thread, which was markedly better in that both comments actually game from Obama, he would reject the Military Commissions Act. Later, he said would "revive military commissions but with greater legal safeguards for defendants". In other words, he still rejected the Military Commissions Act has it had been. What he accepted was a better version.

None of these showed any dishonesty or "expiring statements" on Obama's part, as Beeps implied. To put it simply: Fail, Buckets of

Omniscient? Hell, a news guy compared him to god last week. I'm not making up calling him the "messiah", others were doing so -- and seriously, I might add -- before the election.

That's nice. What does it have to do with this conversation? Did any of them say Obama could predict the future with 100% accuracy?

Personally, even if it seems a bit repetitive to you, I think Beeps is right on target,

How can someone be right on target and factually incorrect at the same time?

and a freaking needed wake-up call to anybody who will open-mindedly listen!

 

[maddog]

Bah. I disagree.

I think you've been drinking the Obama Kool-Aid.

What he said vs. what people that are under his charge said representing him... Okay, so, not EXACTLY he said then vs. he said later, but pretty daggone close. You're kind of splitting hairs.

And the omniscient comment -- you just said that

Obama isn't the omniscient being that nobody was claiming he was.

There were a bunch of people claiming that he was an awful lot of things that nobody with good sense would believe -- like that he was gonna pay their mortgages. That one in particular I remember hearing a lot, which is why I keep picking on it. Well, that plus -- I got laid off six days into the O'presidency and said "oh I'm not worried, Obama's gonna pay my mortgage!" which was great in terms of timely humor.

 

[Upchurch]

Bah. I disagree.

I think you've been drinking the Obama Kool-Aid.

Now, I've been backing up what I've been saying with sources, arguments, and reason. You've been pulling in off topic religious iconography and straw men that don't actually address what Beeps has been saying and amounts to "I also do not like Obama!"

And you think I've been drinking the Kool-Aid?

What he said vs. what people that are under his charge said representing him... Okay, so, not EXACTLY he said then vs. he said later, but pretty daggone close. You're kind of splitting hairs.

Heck, it isn't even what people under him have been saying, with the exception of the White House budget director, who only said something was "on the table".

You think I'm splitting hairs. I think Beeps is stretching facts to fit his desired conclusions.

And the omniscient comment -- you just said that

Obama isn't the omniscient being that nobody was claiming he was.

There were a bunch of people claiming that he was an awful lot of things that nobody with good sense would believe -- like that he was gonna pay their mortgages. That one in particular I remember hearing a lot, which is why I keep picking on it. Well, that plus -- I got laid off six days into the O'presidency and said "oh I'm not worried, Obama's gonna pay my mortgage!" which was great in terms of timely humor.

Ah. Did any of them say Obama was omniscient and could predict the future of the economy with 100% accuracy?

As was discussed in the other thread on this topic, Obama's predictions were wrong. Oddly, those who want to use that as an indicator that the stimulus has failed also want to use Obama's prediction of what the economy would do without the stimulus as accurate even though the rest of it wasn't.

 

[maddog]

Now, I've been backing up what I've been saying with sources, arguments, and reason. You've been pulling in off topic religious iconography and straw men that don't actually address what Beeps has been saying and amounts to "I also do not like Obama!"

How is it off topic to point out that a whole bunch of people have / had completely unrealistic and in some cases messianic and/or religious expectations of the guy, and point out that those expectations are going unfulfilled, in a thread that was started for exactly the purpose of showing how he flip-flopped on issues, positions, plans, etc.? Oh, that's right, it's not off topic at all!

And you think I've been drinking the Kool-Aid?

Well, you may have been mixing in something a bit stronger...

Oooh, I love it when you touch me like that!

You think I'm splitting hairs. I think Beeps is stretching facts to fit his desired conclusions.

That's probably an equally fair statement.

Ah. Did any of them say Obama was omniscient and could predict the future of the economy with 100% accuracy?

I dunno, I didn't pay any more attention to them all than you did, which is to say, probably not very much. And they were all too busy fainting at his rallies to think hard enough to contemplate any details, like his ability to predict the economy.

As was discussed in the other thread on this topic, Obama's predictions were wrong. Oddly, those who want to use that as an indicator that the stimulus has failed also want to use Obama's prediction of what the economy would do without the stimulus as accurate even though the rest of it wasn't.

Nonetheless, though I'm not sure how "accuracy" would be measured in this case, he doesn't have it. Consider these points:

• O says without the stimulus, unemployment will rise to an awful level (even if we ignore the numbers) and the economy will suck
• O says (or at the very least, STRONGLY IMPLIES) with the stimulus, unemployment will fall, or at worst, not rise; and the economy will improve over time
• Results - stimulus passes, unemployment rises to a beyond awful level, worse than what he said would happen without the stimulus
• Results - economy still sucks, signs of improvement over time are uncertain; ambiguous at best

Okay, so predictions are wrong about the specific numbers, percent unemployment 8% vs. 9% vs. 9.4% vs. 10%, okay, whatever. BUT, just take the direction: unemployment is UP, was supposed to go DOWN with stimulus.

Bottom line: if you don't understand the economy, don't mess with it. If you don't know what your "stimulus package" is going to do, you shouldn't be doing it. If you can't even be remotely close to predicting the effects, don't do it!

Now, this guy/administration that screwed that up so bad wants to take over the health care system, too? Can anyone make a prediction, with any accuracy at all, what the effects of these proposals will be?

 

[GreyICE]

Late, perhaps. But still -- doesn't this topic get a lot more credibility coming from BPSCG than the others? BAC has been known to border on trolldom at times, but BPSCG is generally highly respected.

That's... um... okay, everyone is entitled to an opinion.

 

[quarky]

I like the chocolaty Obama Kool Aid. Its sweeter than the GWB Kool Aid.

 

[Beerina]

You haven't been following his "Statement Expiring in 3... 2... 1..." series, have you? There hasn't been one yet that wasn't a bucket full of fail.

• First
• Second
• Third
• Bonus

This is the best one he's had and all it proves is that Obama isn't the omniscient being that nobody was claiming he was.

On the other hand, other theories predicted this was completely the wrong way to go. Why does not the results above suggests re-considering that theory instead of continuing with Obama-as-Savior?

 

[Upchurch]

How is it off topic to point out that a whole bunch of people have / had completely unrealistic and in some cases messianic and/or religious expectations of the guy, and point out that those expectations are going unfulfilled, in a thread that was started for exactly the purpose of showing how he flip-flopped on issues, positions, plans, etc.? Oh, that's right, it's not off topic at all!

It's off topic because none of those people with messianic and/or religious expectations are in this thread or were referenced in this thread.

Okay, so predictions are wrong about the specific numbers, percent unemployment 8% vs. 9% vs. 9.4% vs. 10%, okay, whatever. BUT, just take the direction: unemployment is UP, was supposed to go DOWN with stimulus.

Check Zig's chart again. At this point, with the stimulus, unemployment was supposed to be in the process of leveling off, which is to say, still going up but at an ever decreasing rate. That is what is actually happening right now.

Now, I have no illusions that the real numbers will stick to Obama's curve, only with a greater amplitude, but if you want to compare rates of change with respect to time to date, Obama wasn't that far off yet.

 

[Upchurch]

On the other hand, other theories predicted this was completely the wrong way to go. Why does not the results above suggests re-considering that theory instead of continuing with Obama-as-Savior?

Such as?

I'm willing to consider alternatives, but the only things people ever suggest is the moronic ideas of doing nothing or cutting taxes. Do you have something better?

 

[maddog]

Looking at Zig's chart, as you suggest, there is no leveling off happening now! The slope is is remarkably constant from Feb. through May. So... in predictions that are only, what, 5 - 6 months out, he (his team) is off by 2% unemployment (which sounds small, "only 2%", but in reality that is a whole big stload to be in error); AND wrong on the direction of change!

Like I said:

Bottom line: if you don't understand the economy, don't mess with it. If you don't know what your "stimulus package" is going to do, you shouldn't be doing it. If you can't even be remotely close to predicting the effects, don't do it!

Now, this guy/administration that screwed that up so bad wants to take over the health care system, too? Can anyone make a prediction, with any accuracy at all, what the effects of these proposals will be?

And similar to what Beerina said, why not start giving a bit more credibility to the people & plans that actually predicted all this accurately? Why does "doing something", to you, have to take precedence over "doing nothing"?!? Doing nothing is WAY better than doing the WRONG thing, which is what Team Obama has pushed through.

Doing nothing would have been better. Tax cuts would have been better. Why do you call these "moronic ideas" -- but yet staunchly defend the truly and demonstrably moronic idea that is the "stimulus"?

 

[maddog]

And, let's see, you asked for other ideas... without even getting into complicated stuff like a flat tax, revising corporate & capital gains taxes, how about:

• Immediate end to all government funding of abortion
• Disallow earmarks and "plus-ups" to the federal budget (a "plus-up" is when, for example, the Defense Dept. budget for a particular item/program is for $X, and the congressman [read: Murtha] in whose district the work takes place adds money to it, up to $1.5X or $2X) - make the rule that congress can reduce but not add to the President's Budget
• Eliminate or phase out of all behavior-based tax deductions and credits, in concert with rate reduction - which will stop the subsidizing of mortgages and student loans
• Eliminate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
• Eliminate CAFE standards and requirements for airbags and such -- if consumers want these things, they will survive in the free market

That's a start, off the top of my head.

 

[Upchurch]

Looking at Zig's chart, as you suggest, there is no leveling off happening now!

Zig's chart is not detailed enough. Try this.


deleted argument about stimulus alternative: It's off topic and I've argued it all before on other threads.

Further, it doesn't matter how well the actual numbers fit the curve of Obama's predictions. The prediction was wrong.