So who is the anthrax killer?

...I never had sexual relations with that woman...

Another example would be:
Hatfill was framed...by the Mossad...

However in this case no one would suggest it is done convincingly. Since anyone who bothers to read the article cited ("The Message in the Anthrax") will see for themselves it provides no support whatsoever for this wild claim.
 
Another example would be:


However in this case no one would suggest it is done convincingly. Since anyone who bothers to read the article cited ("The Message in the Anthrax") will see for themselves it provides no support whatsoever for this wild claim.

The Message in the Anthrax article indicates Hatfill was framed.
Next question, who framed Hatfill?
I provided you with the answer.
 
-Speaking of Megrahi, if the evidence against him is, relatively speaking, of the same magnitude as that which exists against Ivins, then I'm not surprised many people came to believe Megrahi is guilty.


I would say the evidence against Ivins is much stronger than that against Megrahi. I admit I haven't waded through all the details involving how the particular strains were tied to Ivins, but I would put the probability of Ivins guilt in the 90% to 100% range.

Megrahi, on the other hand, only feels like 50% to 60% to me.

The volume of evidence tying Ivins to the crime seems far greater than what investigators were able to cobble together against Megrahi.
 
Wired article

Wired Magazine published an article in April 2011 which I think is a good detailed account of the anthrax investigation. I think it shows where the FBI suspected Ivins as well as some of the holes and circumstantial evidence used against him are.

The link to the article:
Anthrax Redux: Did the Feds Nab the Wrong Guy?

Did I think Ivins did it? I don't know. But I think the FBI was acting on the best evidence they think they had.
Ixion,

I read that article several months ago. I came away thinking that there was a good chance that Ivins did it. However, I was not past reasonable doubt, and I have some concern that the investigation led to his suicide (I am not sure whether or not they could have done anything differently). Even if he were guilty, that is not the ideal endpoint, but if he were innocent, it is a terrible result.
 
Still haven'tlooked atWiredor thePBS show.Just thought I'd say I scanned Magz's link:
http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/bioter/messageanthrax.html
And this is one of the early sources I was impressed with,and worth a good look. All language-based, subjective, but consistent. Spends some time clarifying why this wasn't an Arab terrorist, which hasn't been credited ever except the first couple weeks a decade ago.

Very interesting bits:
In November, some of the West's top biowarriors converged on Swindon, England, for an advanced training course for the United Nations Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission. One of the big names on hand for the conference was Steven J. Hatfill, a former USAMRIID virologist and a protégé of Bill Patrick's. Those who completed the course and were certified would have a chance to join the search for Saddam's bioweapons in Iraq. While the 12-day course was under way, someone sent another biothreat letter, postmarked in November in London, to Senator Daschle. When the powder proved nontoxic, the letter was filed away and escaped further scrutiny.

Also mentioned, Ayaad Assaad and the "camel club." He was harrassed for years at USAMRIID for being Arab, was fired in 1997, had a lawsuit pending, and then was implicated for the Anthrax attack by an anonymous letter from someone most likely involved in the attack.
New USAMRIID hires that year, following Assaad's departure, included Steven J. Hatfill, a recruit from the National Institutes of Health. Hatfill was a concept man with a detailed vision for building mobile germ labs.

Him, Bill Zeck,Bill Patrick, and a couple others are all in a groupof special interest.

Steven Hatfill was now looking to me like a suspect, or at least, as the F.B.I. would denote him eight months later, "a person of interest." When I lined up Hatfill's known movements with the postmark locations of reported biothreats, those hoax anthrax attacks appeared to trail him like a vapor cloud. But in February 2002, shortly after I advanced his candidacy to my contact at F.B.I. headquarters, I was told that Mr. Hatfill had a good alibi. A month later, when I pressed the issue, I was told, "Look, Don, maybe you're spending too much time on this." Good people in the Department of Defense, C.I.A., and State Department, not to mention Bill Patrick, had vouched for Hatfill.

In 1999, Hatfill was fired by USAMRIID. He was then hired at Science Applications International Corporation (S.A.I.C.), a contractor for the Department of Defense and the C.I.A., but he departed S.A.I.C. in March 2002, a month after he took a polygraph concerning the anthrax matter that he says he passed. Hatfill at the time was building a mobile germ lab out of an old truck chassis, and after S.A.I.C. fired him he continued work on it using his own money. When the F.B.I. wanted to confiscate the mobile lab to test it for anthrax spores, the army resisted, moving the trailer to Fort Bragg, North Carolina, where it was used to train Special Forces in preparation for the war on Iraq. The classes were taught by Steve Hatfill and Bill Patrick.
 
Bruce Ivins.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/12/entertainment/la-ca-david-willman-20110612

The circumstantial evidence Willman lays out is strong, though not undisputed. Scientific tests identified the anthrax in the letters as coming from a unique batch Ivins had mixed at USAMRIID. He had worked alone in a "hot suite" (a lab designed to keep dangerous germs from escaping) on a series of nights immediately before the two mailings of anthrax letters in September and October 2001. His whereabouts were unaccounted for long enough for him to have driven on both occasions from Fort Detrick, Md., to the mailbox in Princeton, N.J., where the letters were posted — a mailbox adjacent to the office of Kappa Kappa Gamma, a sorority with which Ivins had been obsessed ever since one of its members turned him down for a date in college in the 1960s.

Why would someone considered a harmless geek by his colleagues commit this murderous act? Willman plausibly argues that by early September 2001 Ivins believed "the anthrax vaccine program — the apex of his life's work — was stalemated" because of the doubts government officials had about its effectiveness and necessity. The anthrax letters buried those doubts, and Congress quickly voted a massive increase in funding for biological defense, including the anthrax vaccine. At the very least, Ivins should have been among the suspects the FBI scrutinized in the investigation's early days, especially after a phone call in January 2002 from scientist Nancy Haigwood telling them she thought Ivins was the anthrax killer.

ETA: I'm sure it will be debated forever just like the Kennedy assassination, but I think we know the answer even if some people will never accept it.
 
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Bruce Ivins.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/12/entertainment/la-ca-david-willman-20110612



ETA: I'm sure it will be debated forever just like the Kennedy assassination, but I think we know the answer even if some people will never accept it.

You could be right, but I won't be able to agree until I've done this subject the treatment it deserves. And that won't be now. I'd have to do a lot of catching up and I'm already booked. But this being a strongpoint from your PoV and right here, I'll offer some thoughts:
The circumstantial evidence Willman lays out is strong, though not undisputed. Scientific tests identified the anthrax in the letters as coming from a unique batch Ivins had mixed at USAMRIID.
FBI science can wind up saying a lot of different things, depending. Even if this is a valid finding, is it meaningful? Did Ivins mix every batch for 20 years, even that later smuggled out by someone else? Too many unknowns for this to be as strong as it may sound. It does sound strong.

He had worked alone in a "hot suite" (a lab designed to keep dangerous germs from escaping) on a series of nights immediately before the two mailings of anthrax letters in September and October 2001.
And was that unusual? Do we know the Anthrax was that fresh? Did he ever take his work home with him like Steve did?
In August 2000, Hatfill trained forces at MacDill Air Force Base, in Tampa, using a makeshift bioterror "kitchen" lab that he built himself out of scavenged parts, as well as biosafety cabinets taken from USAMRIID. The borrowed cabinets, suitable for turning germs into weapons, are still missing and are said to have been destroyed. Hatfill, a certified scuba diver, once spoke of how to use a pond in the Frederick Municipal Forest a few miles from his former residence in Maryland" to dispose of toxins. On that information, the F.B.I. searched Whiskey Springs Pond and found a homemade biosafety cabinet. The pond, when later drained, disclosed a rusty bicycle and a street sign but no new evidence.

His whereabouts were unaccounted for long enough for him to have driven on both occasions from Fort Detrick, Md., to the mailbox in Princeton, N.J., where the letters were posted — a mailbox adjacent to the office of Kappa Kappa Gamma, a sorority with which Ivins had been obsessed ever since one of its members turned him down for a date in college in the 1960s.
Long enough... near a place he's said to have an obsession over. Okay.

Did Hatfill get off the hook for being having an alibi for any of the mailings or related hoax mailings which, as Don Foster says in that amazing article "appeared to trail him like a vapor cloud."

Why would someone considered a harmless geek by his colleagues commit this murderous act? Willman plausibly argues that by early September 2001 Ivins believed "the anthrax vaccine program — the apex of his life's work — was stalemated" because of the doubts government officials had about its effectiveness and necessity. The anthrax letters buried those doubts, and Congress quickly voted a massive increase in funding for biological defense, including the anthrax vaccine.
This same basic motive has been ascribed to every other witness, and the initial profile. It doesn't make Ivins any more or less a suspect than anyone else.

At the very least, Ivins should have been among the suspects the FBI scrutinized in the investigation's early days, especially after a phone call in January 2002 from scientist Nancy Haigwood telling them she thought Ivins was the anthrax killer.
He probably warranted scrutiny, and I'd be surprised if he didn't get some. Do we know he didn't? Did Haigwood have amazing evidence, or a hunch?Loooots of tips were called in. Ivins was reported, and so was guacamole.

And Hatfill too. Like Patrick, he apparently wasn't looked at seriously at first, as the investigation seemed unable to do anything for several months. He was first fingered by at least two private investigators, separately, who gave these findings to the FBI. Then after getting sick of waiting for action, they took it to the media. It made so much sense, and was now so widely known, the FBI had to act.

What they then did, as far as I can tell, was act like they didn't have enough, made sure to prominently hound the guy looking for more, even up to physically running over his foot, to illustrate that they were just harrassing and probably had northing, still, for all the effort. Once the public understood, they were happy enough when the pointless hounding stopped. And so was the investigators' work undone. I rather doubt any of the underlying facts changed.

Still a SS Rhodesian Nazi collaborator (and framed by Jews, says Magz), still working there when the SS killed hundreds with deliberate anthrax attack, still wrote that spooky novel (about a scientist based on him saving America from an Iraqi anthrax attack, which was actually a false-flag by the Russian mafia), the letters still claimed Arab origin, some versions using bad Engrish with backwards (cyrillic) Ns, Bill Patrick is still creepy, and he and Hatfill still had their "Batman and Robin" team thing going on, etc.
 
The Message in the Anthrax article indicates Hatfill was framed.
Next question, who framed Hatfill?
I provided you with the answer.

I can also provide an answer, using the same advanced forensic techniques that you have used:

It was totally Batman.
 
I would say the evidence against Ivins is much stronger than that against Megrahi. I admit I haven't waded through all the details involving how the particular strains were tied to Ivins, but I would put the probability of Ivins guilt in the 90% to 100% range.

Megrahi, on the other hand, only feels like 50% to 60% to me.

The volume of evidence tying Ivins to the crime seems far greater than what investigators were able to cobble together against Megrahi.


The amount of evidence against Ivins seems to me to pass the "balance of probability" test, even if not "beyond reasonable doubt".

Megrahi actually had an unbreakable alibi for the Lockerbie bombing, so 50% to 60% is way off beam.

Rolfe.
 

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