So, what should we do?

[Marc L]

You want a viable solution? Get out of Iraq NOW, and publically announce that you're handing over security to the Iraqi government, and that you devoutly hope that Iran and Syria will help securitywise.

This is eventually what will happen anyway -- except that it will take a longer time of bleeding before the Bush admin gives way to the inevitable. But it will.

This is actually my biggest concern over the whole thing. By just pulling out, do we let the insurgents win, and end up with yet another theocracy in the Middle East? On the other hand, if the people truly want a theocracy (which it kind of seems like they do), then should we just let them have it?

Marc

 

[Garrette]

First off, we could start giving small pieces of Iraq back to its residents. We have been in charge of everything since demolishing the country. My opinion is "Why fight to protect or improve on the American's property/responsibility?". If piece by piece is given back, you would see more citizens taking charge of the situation instead of screaming for the US to protect them.

It's happening and has been happening for quite some time.

ETA:

Here's a recent example.

If you have time on your hands go here, click the Press Room tab and click on Advisor. Go to the archives. This is their weekly newsletter. They tend to run 9 or 10 pages, though their hundredth issue last month was about 30 pages. It's slanted, but it's not hard to determine what's factual and what's propaganda.

There is also no search-ability, so you need to have time to do a hit and miss check, but every time there has been a security handover, it's been in the Advisor.

 

[Gurdur]

This is actually my biggest concern over the whole thing. By just pulling out, do we let the insurgents win, and end up with yet another theocracy in the Middle East?

I think I posted my prediction on another thread, but anyway here it is again.

The final result will be:

1) an autonomous Kurdistan in the north of Iraq. It will still have big internal tensions, and it will have an extremely tense relationship with Turkey, but it will muddle along relatively well. In practice, it will mostly be secular relatively-speaking, meaning it will be a muddle religious-rule-wise.

2) A de facto autonomous Shia south, centred on Basra but taking part of Baghdad. It will actually fight to retain independence from Iran -- there is no great support for union with Iran among Iragi Shi'ites.
Apart from that tension, it will be on relatively friendly terms with Iran and Syria. It will have border difficulties with the rest, and it wil have more internal tensions than the Iraqi Kurdistan, but it will just barely muddle along.

3) The rest of the country will resemble Somalia as Somalia is now; there will be an enclave ruled by Sunnis, but pretty much all will be fluid, with constant lowlevel warfare.

4) much of Baghdad will be in for a very nasty civil war. And it won't end quickly.

On the other hand, if the people truly want a theocracy (which it kind of seems like they do), then should we just let them have it?

If enough of them want it, what's your choice? Impose a dictatorship or wipe them all out for wanting the wrong thing?

 

[Darth Rotor]

I think I posted my prediction on another thread, but anyway here it is again.

The final result will be:

1) an autonomous Kurdistan in the north of Iraq. It will still have big internal tensions, and it will have an extremely tense relationship with Turkey, but it will muddle along relatively well. In practice, it will mostly be secular relatively-speaking, meaning it will be a muddle religious-rule-wise.

2) A de facto autonomous Shia south, centred on Basra but taking part of Baghdad. It will actually fight to retain independence from Iran -- there is no great support for union with Iran among Iragi Shi'ites.
Apart from that tension, it will be on relatively friendly terms with Iran and Syria. It will have border difficulties with the rest, and it wil have more internal tensions than the Iraqi Kurdistan, but it will just barely muddle along.

3) The rest of the country will resemble Somalia as Somalia is now; there will be an enclave ruled by Sunnis, but pretty much all will be fluid, with constant lowlevel warfare.

If enough of them want it, what's your choice? Impose a dictatorship or wipe them all out for wanting the wrong thing?

On points two and three: I don't think the Shia will stop fighting until they have ethnically cleansed the Sunni from around a certain radius of Baghdad. That city is too important an economic and transportation hub not to control. It is seen as a prize.

On point last, the Islamic Republic is a matter of when, not if, and in how much of the country.

DR