So, is the Palestinian Intifada over?

[aerocontrols]

The end of the intifada does not mean the end of terrorism. There was terrorism before the intifada and there will be terrorism to come. What has happened, however, is an end to systematic, regular, debilitating, unstoppable terror -- terror as a reliable weapon. At the height of the intifada, there were 9 suicide attacks in Israel killing 85 Israelis in just one month (March 2002). In the last three months, there have been none.

Source
(Also available at the Washington Post, but they require registration nowadays...)



MattJ

 

[The idea]

It's not over 'till the Ara-fat man sings.

 

[Nikk]

Could be they wanted a change of scene and have moved to Iraq and Saudi for a summer sabbatical.

So many targets, so little time.

 

[aerocontrols]

Could be they wanted a change of scene and have moved to Iraq and Saudi for a summer sabbatical.

So many targets, so little time.

Certainly what's going on in Iraq (and probably Saudi) has hurt the funding of the Palestinian terror groups.

 

[TillEulenspiegel]

So, is the Palestinian Intifada over?

Na It got called off temporarily for Friday prayers and a nosh on some pita and falafel.

 

[Jon_in_london]

The Intifada is just the Arabic word for 'The War on Terror'. Is it over? Ask your talking monkey 'president'.

 

[Nikk]

Certainly what's going on in Iraq (and probably Saudi) has hurt the funding of the Palestinian terror groups.

Possibly. But is much funding needed? If the 9/11 operation came in at under $500,000 it would appear that these arabs can achieve a great deal on a shoestring.

 

[aerocontrols]

Possibly. But is much funding needed? If the 9/11 operation came in at under $500,000 it would appear that these arabs can achieve a great deal on a shoestring.

I believe they've had a lot less luck than that against Israel.

Is it actually your contention that Palestinian terror groups have shifted from attacks on Israel to attacks in Iraq?

 

[Jocko]

The Intifada is just the Arabic word for 'The War on Terror'. Is it over? Ask your talking monkey 'president'.

They'd just as soon ice your ass as anyone else's, infidel. Get your terms straight, put down the bottle and take a breather already.

 

[Rob Lister]

The Intifada is just the Arabic word for 'The War on Terror'. Is it over? Ask your talking monkey 'president'.

My my. Tell us how you really feel about him. Not that it much matters one way or the other. Personally, I rather like most of his policies. So my vote will probably be for him come this November. You don't get to vote so please feel free to whine some more.

 

[Rob Lister]

I believe they've had a lot less luck than that against Israel.

Is it actually your contention that Palestinian terror groups have shifted from attacks on Israel to attacks in Iraq?

That sounds plasable. Possibly the groups themselves haven't shifted so much as the money has shifted from one group to another.

 

[Mycroft]

Originally posted by aerocontrols
Source
(Also available at the Washington Post, but they require registration nowadays...)
MattJ

From the article:

At the height of the intifada, there were 9 suicide attacks in Israel killing 85 Israelis in just one month (March 2002). In the last three months, there have been none.

It's not looking good for the Palestinian-Arabs, but it's premature to call it over just because there have been no successful attacks in three months.

 

[Nikk]

I believe they've had a lot less luck than that against Israel.

Is it actually your contention that Palestinian terror groups have shifted from attacks on Israel to attacks in Iraq?

Firstly I do have doubts about the quantity of funds needed to run a very disruptive terrorist organisation, i.e. I doubt if there is much pro rata relationship between external funds and successful attacks ( the shoestring argument).

Secondly, if I were to be serious, I rather doubt if it is very practicable for the majority of activists in Palestine itself to shift their efforts to Iraq/Saudi even if they wanted to. That said their supporters outside the borders of Israel/Palestine may well be directing their funding and logistical efforts towards softer targets for the present.

Thirdly it is entirely possible that the Palestinian efforts have been thwarted by the Israelis for the time being but I am sure that there are many more rounds of this fight to come.

If one looks at the Middle East as a whole (hole?), as I am inclined to do, the situation looks less stable and the fundamentalists more threatening rather than less so.

 

[Rob Lister]

Re: Re: So, is the Palestinian Intifada over?

From the article:



It's not looking good for the Palestinian-Arabs, but it's premature to call it over just because there have been no successful attacks in three months.

That depends on how you view "looking good". In my view the best thing that could happen to them is that they become absorbed into the state of Israel. They would certainly have more wealth, more freedom, and more years than they do now or than they would in a really separate Palestine state.

 

[aerocontrols]

It's not looking good for the Palestinian-Arabs, but it's premature to call it over just because there have been no successful attacks in three months.

Keep in mind that the claim is very specific to suicide attacks as well.

The overall level of violence has reduced 70%, according to the article.

 

[Blue Monk]

Also one should bear in mind that there is now 200 miles of the Israeli protective barrior in place and actively monitored.

 

[aerocontrols]

Firstly I do have doubts about the quantity of funds needed to run a very disruptive terrorist organisation, i.e. I doubt if there is much pro rata relationship between external funds and successful attacks ( the shoestring argument).

I think you've focussed too much on this one point.

Perhaps you'll agree with my (and to some extent the article's) contention that simultaneously cutting off money, targetted assassinations of leadership, and restricting access (the fence) has had some effect.

[edit: The problem I am having is seeing what you are getting at. You don't believe that the Palestinian terrorist groups have gone to Iraq, you probably don't believe they have given up or 'taken a vacation'. You don't seem to believe that a lack of funds could slow them down. What do you think has caused the slacking off of violence?

The wall and the targetted assassinations were supposed to enrage the Palestinians and increase the cycle of violence, according to some...]

Secondly, if I were to be serious, I rather doubt if it is very practicable for the majority of activists in Palestine itself to shift their efforts to Iraq/Saudi even if they wanted to. That said their supporters outside the borders of Israel/Palestine may well be directing their funding and logistical efforts towards softer targets for the present.

So then you agree with me, then?

Thirdly it is entirely possible that the Palestinian efforts have been thwarted by the Israelis for the time being but I am sure that there are many more rounds of this fight to come.

Perhaps there will be, but my question is whether the intifada is over. This particular stretch of the conflict began in 2000 (after the Camp David meeting failed or after Sharon went to the Temple Mount, depending on one's biases) after a stretch of relative quiet.

The first intifada was from 1987-1993 and the end came about with the signing of the Oslo peace accords.

If one looks at the Middle East as a whole (hole?), as I am inclined to do, the situation looks less stable and the fundamentalists more threatening rather than less so.

Neither here nor there, as regards my question about the state of the intifada.

MattJ

 

[Mycroft]

Re: Re: Re: So, is the Palestinian Intifada over?

That depends on how you view "looking good". In my view the best thing that could happen to them is that they become absorbed into the state of Israel. They would certainly have more wealth, more freedom, and more years than they do now or than they would in a really separate Palestine state.

If they could avoid a civil war after doing this, it would be great. I don't think it's viable, though.

 

[Rob Lister]

Re: Re: Re: Re: So, is the Palestinian Intifada over?

If they could avoid a civil war after doing this, it would be great. I don't think it's viable, though.

I don't either. I also don't think the separate-state option is viable. The current situation is viable only by the default position of being mildly more viable that either of the other options.

Forth option anyone?

 

[Blue Monk]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: So, is the Palestinian Intifada over?

Forth option anyone?

I'm saving that for the Nobel Commision.