The Man
Unbanned zombie poster
I will concede as rather obvious that, yes, there is no actual event horizon inside the shell, since it's all flat space in there. We can calculate where that horizon would be, but yep, it ain't there yet.
BUT that brings me back to the original question. From the frame of a distant observer, that would kinda be what a "black hole" really looks like, innit? Mind you, the shell would probably be within planck lengths of the Schwarzschild radius, if it's got billions of years (again, in the frame of an external and distant observer) to fall in, and that shell's been red-shifted into being blacker than black, so essentially it would look indistinguishable from an actual black hole by any practical measurement. You couldn't really tell if the Schwarzschild metric begins at the actual event horizon or picometres from it by any measurement from light years away.
But my question is really a theoretical one, really. And to make it clearer about which frame and whatnot, it's really this that got me thinking: let's say we have a star orbiting a black hole. Like, say S2, a.k.a. S0-2, one of the stars orbiting real close to Sagittarius A, the supermassive black hole at the centre of our galaxy. Well, about 17 light hours way, so time and space will get WEIRD there, but that's not relevant.
And my question was really just this: from the frame of S0-2, is it observing that it orbits around an actual black hole, with the mass inside its Schwarzschild radius, or around an empty shell just outside Sagittarius A's Schwarzschild radius? I'm thinking that from the perspective of S2, it's orbitting around that shell, innit?
Of course, from the perspective of something that already fell into Sagittarius A, it's inside the event horizon of a proper black hole and it probably hit the singularity at the centre billions of years ago. But that's not what I'm asking.
Not according to the hoop conjecture, the mass is already inside the hoop (the Schwarzschild radius) for the black hole and event horizon to form.