It's an appeal to the supernatural as soon as you invoke the concept of divine intervention to explain observed phenomena.
Hmm - I don't think you got my analogy of the cup moving without "divine intervention" as you are calling it. I'm not hiding from the details and arguing from ignorance any more than an evolutionist is hiding from the details of the parts of his theory he can't explain. I'm still seeking the truth and will not stop until I find it all.
If there is a God, (which is possible) then it's perfectly valid to consider that He exists and that He has a part in reality. The practice of avoiding any mention of God would keep you from finding the truth, if in fact God exists. It's a fallacy to say that "because we have been able to explain X, Y, and Z without needing to include God, God must never enter into the equation."
It doesn't affect me, exactly, but it does reveal that I have no choice in the matter, and never did. I'm not saying that predetermination somehow removes free will that was there before; I'm saying that determinism simply reveals the fact that it never existed in the first place. If I truly had free will, then it would be impossible to predict my actions. Conversely, if you can predict my actions with 100% accuracy, then I am, by definition, an automaton and not a free agent.
I get what you're saying but it doesn't make sense to me. Your choice is not effected by my knowledge in any way whatsoever. Free will is the ability to do what you want to do without anyone forcing you to do what they want - nothing more. If someone knows what you're going to do because they are smart, it has absolutely no bearing on the choice you make and whether you are doing what you want to do.
An automaton in this context by Merriam Webster's definition is "a machine or control mechanism designed to follow automatically a predetermined sequence of operations or respond to encoded instructions." [emphasis mine] I am a software engineer and so I know about predetermined sets of instructions and how a computer is forced to follow my predetermined set of instructions without any free will of its own.
Again, if I'm smart and know what you're going to do, that doesn't mean that you are following a set of instructions with no choice to deviate, you are acting independently of my knowledge. You are not an automaton. I could cease to exist and it wouldn't all of a sudden give your free will back - you wouldn't even know that I had died - except that I would stop posting here.
Neither. I'm saying that, in a universe where free will existed, you wouldn't be able to predict the actions of another being, no matter how smart you were. Some degree of unpredictability is an absolute prerequisite of free will.
What are the sources of your assertions? Who said that you cannot predict the actions of someone who has free will? I predict my kids' actions and I thereby violate your law - my prediction doesn't affect their free will. Who said that some degree of unpredictability is a prerequisite of free will?
Consider the opposite: how can you possibly claim a being is capable of making choices it is absolutely impossible for him to choose opposite the way you expect?
Interesting question but that scenario reflects God's intelligence, not a person's free will. Again, free will is the ability to do what one wants to do without any outside compulsion or force. It has nothing to do with someone else's smartness or ability to predict what you'll do. I'm not taking my children's free will from them when I know they'll run out onto the ice and fall down. My prediction has absolutely nothing to do with my child's free will or their ability to choose to run out onto the ice.
Maybe this is just a matter of mismatching definitions. Thanks for the debate - I like it.