Skepticism and The Normal

Bubble,

I'm really not convinced that OS 0 1 2 really solves any kind of problems, makes any useful predictions, or really does anything useful that hasn't already been addressed by some other discipline. I'm fairly sure I'm following the arguments, I just don't see it as being unique. You've been making your points for a while now, and I'm really not convinced.

I see you kind of dodged my set counting issue by stating that counting dates back 50,000 years and it's really got 2 in there. You are correct that we do create symbols to represent amounts, but we don't necessarily have to. If I were to draw this on a wall;

||

You would recognize it as two objects, but you wouldn't need the symbol "2" to do anything. "2" just represents the thought that is evoked by seeing two of a particular object.

Mathematically, this is shown as {1, 1}.

There isn't a symbol for 0 in this system, there is simply nothing. There isn't a symbol to conceptualize this, as 0 took humans a long time to figure out.

Really, 0 is hardly innate. The simplest human counting system has a series of marks. Properly speaking, it would be a one-value system. If you want to go down the road of calling higher groupings of marks different "values" or "distinctions" or whatever, then it becomes an infinity-value system.

That's all splitting hairs, but that's what math is all about. Yes, you can conceptualize human counting as 0 (nothing), 1 (a single value), 2 (the first value made up of a whole fraction of 1's), but there really isn't a particular reason to do this. Binary also has a value for greater than 1, despite being based on only two numbers. Again, you can claim they really included "2" in there with that value, but it's imprecise to do so.

My issue is that you keep saying that 2 is a conceptual concept, but it really isn't. Groups of things are conceptual concepts, numbers are not. Numbers are a way of describing conceptual concepts precisely and relating them to other concepts. I'm going to get into this issue in more detail when I talk about summation below.

You still need to address a few problems with mathematics. These are simple things critical to describing the real world, but currently appear to be totally outside the concept of 0, 1, or 2 even as you set it up.

These don't have anything to do with truth values, but have a lot to do with human conceptualization of numbers. In fact, they are required to fully describe numerical concepts precisely.

If you're going to lump this stuff in with "many", "mystery", "infinity" or whatever and still try to claim the mathematical elements of OS 0 1 2 have any ability to describe reality as we perceive it, you're going to have serious problems.

  1. Irrational numbers: These cannot be reduced to fractions of 1. They are not natural numbers, but several of them are absolutely essential to describing reality. Pi, for example, is critical to describing numerous geometric shapes accurately.
  2. ∑: This is the mathematical symbol for summation. Interestingly enough, it would provide a far more logical symbol to connote "everything more than one" than 2.

    In fact, there is a specific formulation using ∑x with "1 < x < ∞" written below it (sorry, I'm not good with LaTeX so I can't make it all purty-like) that would mean "the sum of all numbers greater than 1 and less than infinity" without including any symbol for "2" at all.

    You want to use set notation, you could even restrict it to natural numbers. I think this is the closest mathematical representation of "many" you can get.
  3. ∆: The mathematical symbol representing "change". I would think that, since you say this system is supposed to represent human experience, that this would be important.
  4. ∞: Interestingly enough, 0, 1, and 2 does not explicitly contain the concept of infinity (you keep mentioning it, but didn't include it as a symbol). The concept itself is separate from "an infinite number of 1's" and can't really be mathematically described as such. You see, the concept of "an infinte number of x" is not really the same as the concept of infinity itself.
I won't bring up imaginary numbers again, because their connection to reality is considerably harder to conceptualize. Still, if you want to perform operations on numbers, you're going to eventually describe how you solve
√-1 or say it's unsolvable. If you're willing to include i on your list of things, then the problem can be solved.

Number theory is considerably more involved than ordering and counting.

I'll address the concept of absolute certainty again. I wouldn't even go so far as to say that you can be absolutely certain about the ending of your sentence, because there is always the small chance that I am perceiving it incorrectly or none of this is real, in which case your statement wouldn't reflect objective reality.

I agree you can be 100% certain about what you think you perceive at any given moment, and you can be 100% certain that you are perceiving (unless you want to get really weird, philosophically). Other than that, nope.

And finally, I'd like to talk about your idea that human experience can be perfectly "noted" as objective, subjective, 0, 1, and 2 (I'll assume you mean true, false, and mystery).

No, I disagree. You even said that things like emotions work into the "mystery" category. This by itself indicates your system does not perfectly describe human experience at all, it simply attempts to simplify and model it in some way. I don't think human experience can ever be perfectly described by anything.

Is "mystery" by any chance a scalar value?
 
Well here we have a conflict of idea. I can say for almost certainty that it can do what I say it can do.

Then demonstrate it. Because I say with equal certainty that it can't; that you are at best misguided.

In particular, you claim that you can use this framework for "conflict resolution." GIve a detailed and non-trivial example

You claim that you can use this framework to predict human behavior. Again, a detailed and non-trivial example would lend your statements the only shred of credibility they will have managed to achieve.

Jonny put it well: "I'm really not convinced that OS 0 1 2 really solves any kind of problems, makes any useful predictions, or really does anything useful that hasn't already been addressed by some other discipline. I'm fairly sure I'm following the arguments, I just don't see it as being unique. You've been making your points for a while now, and I'm really not convinced" I also don't see that there's anything either novel or useful in your framework.
 
I notice, though BF, that you have refused to reply to my posts; either my over-long posts from before, nor my simple request for you to demonstrate how OS012 deals with the conflict of ideas between the required death of a heretic, and the idea that there is no God, as I requested such a demonstration earlier.

sorry, zaay. It's certainly not a refusal by any means. I just havent gotten to them yet. As you know, your posts, like mine, are long. And your posts also address more subtle philosophical areas, and the discussion with Jonny and myself was more concrete and mathematical, which I think addresses the most basic questions.


I've asked for a very simple and concrete demonstration. We have two persons whose ideas are in conflict. One has the idea that his faith requires him to kill a heretic. The other has the idea that God does not exist.

yes, neither side is allowing the third value to operate here.

How, then, does OS012 resolve this conflict? Indeed, how do both sides 'win' in this case?

In theory, which is to assume that both parties would discuss, each one of them would be 'walked' through a specific framework inside of the discussion where the third value is addressed. Each point of view is deconstructed, 'gamed', into three values of truth and the standards of certainty that exist within each one.

So in theory, by allowing the third value to operate, 'God' becomes neither certainly true nor certainly false, but rather certainly a 'mystery'.

This is not to say that either side will discuss, nor discuss honestly, rather, when or if they discuss (and the natural 'conflict' of idea insures that most parties will discuss to advance their 'truth') the natural method of dialectic inside of this framework will create the only rational and certain definition of what God could be. The framework can't be said to 'cure' irrationality, but rather, outcompete irrationality with the most refined rational idea that in princaple, but both sides can agree on is 'true'.

1.)Mysterious Ideas are not in conflict with true ideas.
2.) False ideas are not in conflict with true ideas.
3.)Only ideas that are believed to be true are in conflict with true ideas.

Our behavior alters and changes around what we believe to be true.


Bubblefish
 
Bubblefish, in post 858. you clain that OS012 can be used to resolve conflict and predict human behaviour. Prove it by resolving the conflict of ideas on this thread and by predicting how the rest of us are going to behave (on the thread, so prediction and results are visible to all).

Didn't I do that on badscience? Was'nt I correct?

First off, I can't resolve your conflicting ideas with me unless you agree to 'tit for tat' with me, honestly, like Jonny 5 and myself.

Secondly, I most likely do not have the time to 'tit for tat' with everyone here, I hardly have time to tit for tat with Jonny and Zaay and kitten.

I'm still working, with a few others, on an elegant way of introducing the behaviorial aspects of this game.

In princaple, however, I can outline it like this.

Assuming that I did have the time to tit for tat with all of you and you all attempted to with me

A very limited set of behaviors occur in the conflict of idea.

The behaviors of Perfect agreement is what is supported by the framework. Through refined exchange, both of us would 'see' what each other means. If this was to occur, this would mean that both of us would have to admit either errors, mistakes, or delusions in our truth values. Niether of us knows what this 'synthesis' of idea is currently. It's a 'third value' scenario. I naturally lead the discussion to this place, and so would a framework for discussion. As has been addressed, the 'third value' is unknown, and human beings have an innate fear of the unknown, and when faced with the unknown, everyone has simply two options, face the unknown or avoid the unknown.

If the opponent is rational and honest, seeking truth, synthesis is the outcome. Behavior can be predicted to be polite, gentle, humourous, reasonable, cordial.

If the opponent is dishonest or irrational, then this process will be hi-jacked. Their behavior can be predicted to A.) Leave the discussion before completion B.) Avoid answering questions which lead them to honestly face their truth values, manipulation, deception. C.) resort to personal attack and refrences to the character of the opponent to 'cloud' the perception of the idea being discussed. This would include character assasination, shaming, and in real life, offline, could include phyical harm or threat of physical harm to the person advancing the conflict of idea. Online, this includes threats to 'banish' or ban those who advance the conflicting idea.

It's really no more complex than that. The thing that seduces the opponent to stay inside of the conflict of idea is simply human nature. We are driven to the conflict of idea almost like the drive to mate. Just like a young lustful female will alter the behavior of men (glances, advances, etc etc), the conflict of idea alters our behavior. Innately, we are driven to 'fight' for our truths to advance. each point of view wants to 'win' the conflict of idea. each side will take what they believe to be the most appropiate steps to 'win' the conflict of idea.


Bubblefish


The author of this posts declares the wish and desire to maintain all copyrights/trademarks assosciated with ™OS 0 1 2 in this public discussion, and declares that such posts relate, involve proprietary and copyright protected information, ©2003-2007.
 
Didn't I do that on badscience? Was'nt I correct?

No and No.

First off, I can't resolve your conflicting ideas with me unless you agree to 'tit for tat' with me, honestly, like Jonny 5 and myself.

Secondly, I most likely do not have the time to 'tit for tat' with everyone here, I hardly have time to tit for tat with Jonny and Zaay and kitten.

Not really much use for conflict resolution, then, if you have to do it one person at a time. You won't stop any wars using OS012

I'm still working, with a few others, on an elegant way of introducing the behaviorial aspects of this game.

In princaple, however, I can outline it like this.

Assuming that I did have the time to tit for tat with all of you and you all attempted to with me

A very limited set of behaviors occur in the conflict of idea.

The behaviors of Perfect agreement is what is supported by the framework. Through refined exchange, both of us would 'see' what each other means. If this was to occur, this would mean that both of us would have to admit either errors, mistakes, or delusions in our truth values. Niether of us knows what this 'synthesis' of idea is currently. It's a 'third value' scenario. I naturally lead the discussion to this place, and so would a framework for discussion. As has been addressed, the 'third value' is unknown, and human beings have an innate fear of the unknown, and when faced with the unknown, everyone has simply two options, face the unknown or avoid the unknown.

If the opponent is rational and honest, seeking truth, synthesis is the outcome. Behavior can be predicted to be polite, gentle, humourous, reasonable, cordial.

If the opponent is dishonest or irrational, then this process will be hi-jacked. Their behavior can be predicted to A.) Leave the discussion before completion B.) Avoid answering questions which lead them to honestly face their truth values, manipulation, deception. C.) resort to personal attack and refrences to the character of the opponent to 'cloud' the perception of the idea being discussed. This would include character assasination, shaming, and in real life, offline, could include phyical harm or threat of physical harm to the person advancing the conflict of idea. Online, this includes threats to 'banish' or ban those who advance the conflicting idea.

It's really no more complex than that.

You appear to be describing the ordinary exchange of ideas here, or possibly the Marxist notion of thesis, antithesis and synthesis.


The author of this posts declares the wish and desire to maintain all copyrights/trademarks assosciated with ™OS 0 1 2 in this public discussion, and declares that such posts relate, involve proprietary and copyright protected information, ©2003-2007.

You needn't worry. I have no intention of claiming intellectual ownership of "OS012" and I sincerely doubt anyone else here does either.
 
Bubble,

I'm really not convinced that OS 0 1 2 really solves any kind of problems, makes any useful predictions, or really does anything useful that hasn't already been addressed by some other discipline.


Jonny, that's fine. That's not what this discussion is about. This discussion is about the third value. I'm not here trying to sell anyone on OS 012, and anyone's personal opinion about it is not relevant to my work with it, nor the value it can have. I'm not alone on this project, I have pretty impressive individuals in academia and buisness who agree with me and are working with me to advance it.

I'm fairly sure I'm following the arguments, I just don't see it as being unique. You've been making your points for a while now, and I'm really not convinced.

My arguments have had absolutly nothing to do with the uniqueness of OS 012. I'm not here making a formal presentation. I am quite clear how this framework can be adopted into something extraordinarily unique, it's not neccesary to me or this project if anyone here sees that. actually, it's better if you dont yet.

I see you kind of dodged my set counting issue by stating that counting dates back 50,000 years and it's really got 2 in there. You are correct that we do create symbols to represent amounts, but we don't necessarily have to. If I were to draw this on a wall;

||

You would recognize it as two objects, but you wouldn't need the symbol "2" to do anything. "2" just represents the thought that is evoked by seeing two of a particular object.

we only symbolize for the sake of simplicity, and if the elders wrote I I, they still, at some point, had one sound for I I and one sound for I.

Mathematically, this is shown as {1, 1}.

yes

There isn't a symbol for 0 in this system, there is simply nothing. There isn't a symbol to conceptualize this, as 0 took humans a long time to figure out.

agreed. but we did know what 'unknown' was at a very deep level, and we used other symbols to communicate unknown.

Really, 0 is hardly innate. The simplest human counting system has a series of marks. Properly speaking, it would be a one-value system. If you want to go down the road of calling higher groupings of marks different "values" or "distinctions" or whatever, then it becomes an infinity-value system.

agreed

That's all splitting hairs, but that's what math is all about. Yes, you can conceptualize human counting as 0 (nothing), 1 (a single value), 2 (the first value made up of a whole fraction of 1's), but there really isn't a particular reason to do this.

That's not a true statement I believe. There are the reasons listed in the Zero, One, and Infinity princaple. It's a way to model or map all possible values simply, as need in computer programming, and inside of this framework of OS 012.

It's irrelevant if anyone at this time finds a 'reason' to do so, for if there is a reason that could possibly exist, there is a mathematical notation that can define it. Again, I point to that discussion amongst mathematicians about 0, 1, and infinity. One of them suggested that this is not properly defined in standard mathematics, and a new branch of mathematics could or should be developed regarding these relationships.

Binary also has a value for greater than 1, despite being based on only two numbers. Again, you can claim they really included "2" in there with that value, but it's imprecise to do so.

I'm not following you here. No one, including me, is trying to compete binary and ternary values against each other, there is simply a place for both of them.

My issue is that you keep saying that 2 is a conceptual concept, but it really isn't.

all numbers are conceptual

Groups of things are conceptual concepts, numbers are not. Numbers are a way of describing conceptual concepts precisely and relating them to other concepts. I'm going to get into this issue in more detail when I talk about summation below.

Numbers are 'ideas' about ordering and counting, nothing more. Ordering and counting is 'hard wired' into us.

You still need to address a few problems with mathematics. These are simple things critical to describing the real world, but currently appear to be totally outside the concept of 0, 1, or 2 even as you set it up.

I personally don't understand how I need to address a few problems in mathematics, I am simply relating three distinctions that can be found in ordering and counting, that's it. Those distinctions exist in number. There is nothing else I see the need to address. If I am mistaken, then I need further understanding here.

These don't have anything to do with truth values, but have a lot to do with human conceptualization of numbers. In fact, they are required to fully describe numerical concepts precisely.

If you're going to lump this stuff in with "many", "mystery", "infinity" or whatever and still try to claim the mathematical elements of OS 0 1 2 have any ability to describe reality as we perceive it, you're going to have serious problems.

0 relates to unknown, both true and false at once. 0 is both 1 and -1 at once. Indeed, 0 is all postive and negatives at once.

1 relates to objective reality. 1 environment we all share in common, thus 1 truth that can be verified amongst all to relate to objective reality

2 relates to subjective reality, the point of view observing the 1, relativity.


  1. Irrational numbers: These cannot be reduced to fractions of 1. They are not natural numbers, but several of them are absolutely essential to describing reality. Pi, for example, is critical to describing numerous geometric shapes accurately.
  2. ?: This is the mathematical symbol for summation. Interestingly enough, it would provide a far more logical symbol to connote "everything more than one" than 2.


  1. Jonny, I'm not arguing that 012 is a 'mathematical' way to define things. That's what mathematics is for. I'm saying 0, 1, and 2 perfectly symbolize the relationship between the ternary aspects, that's it.

    I do appreciate this wonderful education you are giving me, however. I am not saying stop doing that, I'm just saying I have a very hard time understanding how it is relevant to the distinctions of truth values.

    The mathematical symbol representing "change". I would think that, since you say this system is supposed to represent human experience, that this would be important.

    interesting, very interesting

    [*]?: Interestingly enough, 0, 1, and 2 does not explicitly contain the concept of infinity (you keep mentioning it, but didn't include it as a symbol). The concept itself is separate from "an infinite number of 1's" and can't really be mathematically described as such. You see, the concept of "an infinte number of x" is not really the same as the concept of infinity itself.

    Yes, I agree with this somewhat, but 2 is a false symbol in OS 012. I dont have to define infinity, it's assumed that from 1 and up, we get infinity. 2 is just the first 'false' number in sequence, all numbers are symbols (false) of orderings of 1.

    False is the symbol, true is the signified.


    Number theory is considerably more involved than ordering and counting.

    i would imagine, yes

    I'll address the concept of absolute certainty again. I wouldn't even go so far as to say that you can be absolutely certain about the ending of your sentence, because there is always the small chance that I am perceiving it incorrectly or none of this is real, in which case your statement wouldn't reflect objective reality.

    If you are percieving it incorrectly, then you would not see the word 'this' at the end of this sentence which ends with 'this'.

    Certainty and truths are not things, they are functions of [EDIT, or rather 'for'] things. "absolute certainty" is a function of truth. It doesnt matter if something is absolutly certain or if it's not. Things function as 'if' they are absolutly certain, or they don't.

    It doesnt matter if none of this is real either. IT is functioning as if it is real, in the only way we can understand what 'real' is, via direct experience.

    If it is an illusion, then it is a real illusion.

    I agree you can be 100% certain about what you think you perceive at any given moment, and you can be 100% certain that you are perceiving (unless you want to get really weird, philosophically). Other than that, nope.

    that's all we have to go on! that is the foundation of all 'truth', what we directly experience. If it's not real, it's still a real illusion.

    And finally, I'd like to talk about your idea that human experience can be perfectly "noted" as objective, subjective, 0, 1, and 2 (I'll assume you mean true, false, and mystery).

    yes

    No, I disagree. You even said that things like emotions work into the "mystery" category. This by itself indicates your system does not perfectly describe human experience at all, it simply attempts to simplify and model it in some way. I don't think human experience can ever be perfectly described by anything.

    first off, all things can go in all three categories, depending upon the point of view. So your emotions, how you are feeling, is a mystery to me, true to you, and false when expressed into text.

    Our feelings or internal reality is ALWAYS a big 0 to the point of view of others, but always TRUE to ourselves, and FALSE when expressed.

    Is "mystery" by any chance a scalar value?

    hmmm, that is a good question. I'm not sure I can answer that properly yet. Let me sit on that one.

    Jonny, you always ask good questions!


    Bubblefish
 
Last edited:
The author of this posts declares the wish and desire to maintain all copyrights/trademarks assosciated with ™OS 0 1 2 in this public discussion, and declares that such posts relate, involve proprietary and copyright protected information, ©2003-2007.

Oh, no! This treasure-trove of ideas isn't in the public domain?

I was going to make use of it for a new method of pickling onions. Damn!
 
No and No.

yes and yes.

Not really much use for conflict resolution, then, if you have to do it one person at a time. You won't stop any wars using OS012
You appear to be describing the ordinary exchange of ideas here, or possibly the Marxist notion of thesis, antithesis and synthesis.
You needn't worry. I have no intention of claiming intellectual ownership of "OS012" and I sincerely doubt anyone else here does either.

JQH, I'm not interested in you believing this or not. I am in the process of formalizing it right now, and will either prove it's efficacy, or prove it's failure using the scientific method. I speak from my experience, and you speak from yours. From experience, I can say to myself that this works, now is the time to prove it scientifically, to see if I am right.

your personal value is not relevant to this project, sorry.

No, I dont think you or anyone here is likely to take this idea, but I have to do that none the less.

also, OS 012 is, in theory, a very refined dialectic, so it will naturally update and contain all elements of all systems of dialectic previous to it, including Socratic, Heglian, and Marxist.

I am not a marxist, and this has nothing to do with communism.
 
Oh, no! This treasure-trove of ideas isn't in the public domain?

I was going to make use of it for a new method of pickling onions. Damn!

hmm, is not an onion a wonderful metaphor for the many layers of truth to be discovered?
 
FYI, my first thought on mystery being a scalar value would be no, since it's sum is infinite, but again, I'm not a mathematician, so I still need to think about that one.
 
How about a link, then? Must have missed it.

it's somewhere between pages 10 and 30 on the 'scientific expedition' thread. it was actually a topic of discussion, with mojo commenting on it heavily. It predicted what happened later in our discussion, the threat of 'ending' the discussion by banning me, the uproar and pressure the community was putting on stever to do so, and thus numerous warnings I recieved to 'alter' my communication, with the final warning being to simply not rebut arguments from members, it was considered offensive and that I was 'pushing people to believe in the supernatural!"

So why resort to baseless personal slurs when I dare to disagree with you then?

JQH, c'mon man, that's not fair. First off, how many personal snides have you thrown my way? And I don't recall you 'arguing' your truth values on where exactly you disagree, certainly not critically, I recall you constantly putting me down as a troll or something like it for arguing these ideas and make gross assumptions about who I am.

And my snipes to you about being drunk was not meant to be taken literally, but humoursly. I dont think you are really a drunk, nor have you given me any reasonable recourse to think you are drunk, it was just a joke, and used to get you to stay in the discussion and address me critically.

I have absolutly no conflict with anyone skepticism's about OS 012. I make big claims, I know that. I'm not trying to get you all to be believers in it or anything. I am not here to preach, i am here to uncover truth for my own value, and help others to do the same.

Did I say otherwise? Why are you so defensive?

I was making a clarification, nothing more. I didnt take it that you were assuming me to be a marxist, however, I must clarify, look how many strange ideas people assume about me already! Stever thought I was trying to get you all to believe in the supernatural, PV thinks I am simply a sadistic person who makes up an argument as he goes along for the pure sake of abusing people, Zep thinks I am like TimeCube guy, ST thinks I have a narcissistic personality disorder.

There are plenty versions of Bubblefish going around the internet, so I need to clarify for the sake of the real reader seeking clarification.
 
FYI, my first thought on mystery being a scalar value would be no, since it's sum is infinite, but again, I'm not a mathematician, so I still need to think about that one.

A scalar value is one that doesn't have a specific direction, only a quantity. Something like "speed" is a scalar property, as opposed to "velocity" which includes a direction, and hence is a vector value.

It was kind of a joke, but I'd really like to know if you account for different degrees of "mystery" specifically, or how you measure it. If you're going to solve conflict, I would think that would be important.
 
an example of human behavior avoiding answering the direct question. This is interesting indeed, since his behavior is also influenced by his idea about his job, which is to answer questions. Cannot we not make a statement that could be considered acurate and say that Tony Snow is having an internal conflict that he does not reveal?

http://movies.crooksandliars.com/Snow-Pace.mov
 
Here are two examples of dialectic happening.

The first one is Robert Wright, currently my favorite rational dialectician. Robert uses logic and honesty to arrive at truth. (he also said some nice things to me in an email about OS 012, yes, I am bragging about that, he is one of my heros, so why shouldn't i !;-)

http://bloggingheads.tv/video.php?id=199&cid=995

The second one is Stephan Colbert, my favorite irrational dialectician. he uses art to find the truth and expose it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJvY_RftA4I

I like to consider I do both, although admittadly not as well as either of them.



BF
 
It was kind of a joke, but I'd really like to know if you account for different degrees of "mystery" specifically, or how you measure it. If you're going to solve conflict, I would think that would be important.

very good question. It is something that I am currently working on. There are most certainly degrees to each truth value.

For example, the unknown could be simply the solution to a puzzle the first we approach it, and in princaple, we can uncover this unknown. another distinction is say, the future,which is always unknown, but in cases can be predicted in a limited sense. then there are great mysteries. existence and consciousness are great mysteries, there will always be mysteries revealed and further mysteries after that. each other's consciousness is permanently hidden from one another, so there are always mysteries there.

the universe itself is a great mystery.
we either get the universe in terms of something from nothing, or something eternal. That's a very very mysterious princaple to understand.
 
Three truth values in the news.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/02/14/wiran214.xml

Al-Sadr, is he in Iraq or Iran?

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/world/story.html?id=9980075c-91ed-419b-9d93-849350f25e9a&k=40051

The US Government says that he is in Iran. (t,f,m)

The Iranians say he is in Iraq (t,f,m)

Both sides have shown in recent history of distorting truth for political agenda, can we accept the truth value of either statement considering the parties making them? What is the probability that Al-Sadr is in either Iran or Iraq?

How can anyone possibly analyze this scenario for any certainty without the third value?


BF
 

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