Skepticism and the memo controversy

epepke said:
This is backward reasoning. Common superscipts and subscripts were available on many typewriters.

* * *

We're not talking a superscripted "hey non nonny and a hot cha cha" here; these were things that were common even on monospaced typewriters of the time.

Superscripts that rise above the line of the regular text with a smaller font? So far, I have not seen any examples -- but I am more than willing to admit I am wrong if you can point to a model that can duplicate the thing.

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Meadmaker said:
Let me see if I understand, Crim.

Are you saying that "extraordinary proof" has been presented, and that the memos have been conclusively demonstrated as forgeries?

If I was saying that, you would have no trouble linking directly to the quote of those exact words, would you?
Or are you just fabricating something I never said, in order to deflect the real question?

As long as CBS fails to provide the originals or to explain how a retired Colonel was involved in pressuring active duty officers, I remain skeptical.

Everyone else can feel free to invest themselves in whatever theories work for them...I'll wait for more facts.
 
NoZed Avenger said:
Superscripts that rise above the line of the regular text with a smaller font? So far, I have not seen any examples -- but I am more than willing to admit I am wrong if you can point to a model that can duplicate the thing.

Hmmm... I wish I hadn't thrown all of my old typewriters away. I don't have a model that can duplicate the thing.

Looking around, I found this on the IBM Executive. http://www.etypewriters.com/a-thumb.htm From 1952-1953. This, the model A, looks a lot like my father's IBM Executive.
 
Crim,

I don't get it. I said there was no extraordinary proof.

You said.


crimresearch said:
And all you have to do to buy into that argument, is to completely and repeatedly ignore the fact that Col. Staudt had been retired for 18 months when the memos claim he was involved in these events.


So, was there something in my argument that would require ignoring Colonel Staudt? Since my argument was that the evidence presented did not constitute "extraordinary proof" I took you to mean that Col. Staudt's retirement must somehow be related to extraordinary proof, but you seemed to take offense when I asked that.

As for Col. Staudt, that is a bit suspicious, and weighs a little bit toward the pro-forgery side of things. On the other hand, we know that people outside of the NG could influence the Guard. In particular, we know that political strings were frequently pulled so that rich, powerful, or influential people, and their sons, could secure spots in the National Guard that would keep them out of Vietnam.

The fact that a retired officer might be part of that string-pulling does not strike me as totally outrageous. A little odd, perhaps, but not the sort of thing I would call, "extraordinary proof".

Colonel Staudt is alive today. If he were to speak to the press, and say that he didn't ever do anything like that after he retired, and no credible counterclaimants came forward, I would call that extraordinary proof.
 
epepke said:
Hmmm... I wish I hadn't thrown all of my old typewriters away. I don't have a model that can duplicate the thing.

Looking around, I found this on the IBM Executive. http://www.etypewriters.com/a-thumb.htm From 1952-1953. This, the model A, looks a lot like my father's IBM Executive.

I looked at the ads, but don't see anything -- is there one in particular, or am I missing it?
 
Meadmaker said:

So, was there something in my argument that would require ignoring Colonel Staudt? Since my argument was that the evidence presented did not constitute "extraordinary proof" I took you to mean that Col. Staudt's retirement must somehow be related to extraordinary proof, but you seemed to take offense when I asked that.

As for Col. Staudt, that is a bit suspicious, and weighs a little bit toward the pro-forgery side of things. On the other hand, we know that people outside of the NG could influence the Guard. In particular, we know that political strings were frequently pulled so that rich, powerful, or influential people, and their sons, could secure spots in the National Guard that would keep them out of Vietnam.

The fact that a retired officer might be part of that string-pulling does not strike me as totally outrageous. A little odd, perhaps, but not the sort of thing I would call, "extraordinary proof".

Colonel Staudt is alive today. If he were to speak to the press, and say that he didn't ever do anything like that after he retired, and no credible counterclaimants came forward, I would call that extraordinary proof.

I'm glad you came to his board. I've seen many people come through here wanting to become skeptics thinking they were but merely being dissidents or partisans.

You have a ways to go but at least you have the basics down.

Col. Staudt speaking to the press isn't necessary at all and as an exercise for you, find me one big reason why (clue: its based on your assumption that retired people come back onto the base and use army typewriters to write official memos with no strikethroughs).

Happy hunting kiddo!
 
Actually the assumption that a retired officer would still be receiving memos and exerting influence needs to be broadened to explain why Alabama officers would make a special case for the son of a Texan, whose chief claim to fame at the time was LOSING an election to Lloyd Bentsen before being tapped to attend the UN. It isn't like Bush's family had enough clout to get him into one of the elite Northeastern Guard units reserved for the sons of the rich and powerful.

Anything is *possible*, but I'm still waiting for some facts, not suppositions, to answer a few basic questions on this matter, before I take a position either way on the authenticity of these memos.

And the longer that I wait for plausible answers (and there are answers that would be perfectly plausible, but so far no one is presenting them), the more I remain skeptical.

.
 
crimresearch said:
Actually the assumption that a retired officer would still be receiving memos and exerting influence needs to be broadened to explain why Alabama officers would make a special case for the son of a Texan, .

I'm about to go into wild speculation. This is really just a diversion until something interesting pops up.

The retired officer wouldn't be receiving the memos, but he would be exerting influence. And it would be Texan on Texan. The assertion that the memos make is that Killian, a Texan, was being pressured to rate Bush, even though Bush had left for Alabama.

As for connections, GWB was in very, very, good shape. His granddad was a senator. His dad was a Congressman. (I think. If I remember right, he was a one term congressman who gave up his seat to run for the Senate, and lost.) And there was plenty of money involved.

Corplinx,
I'm glad to see you think I'm learning skepticism. But, frankly, I think you have a way to go on it. You seem to have jumped to the conclusion that these memos had to have been made on a word processor. I don't think that conclusion is warranted just yet.
 
Meadmaker said:
You seem to have jumped to the conclusion that these memos had to have been made on a word processor. I don't think that conclusion is warranted just yet.
Despite dozens of inconsistencies in just a few documents, you hold on to the possibility that they are authentic. What kind of evidence would you require before being presuaded that they are not? There's a difference between healthy skepticism and just plain stubbornness.
 
The extraordinary evidence bit is a nice way of prejudging the likelihood of an event before looking at the evidence, too.

Document forgery, for example, is not an extraordinary claim. There was a case from just a few years ago involving someone who created documents against President Bush. By memory, it was for the last election. Then you have the Hitler Diaries. From memory, CBS/60 minutes had at least 1 prior instance (2001? 2002?) where they had to apologize for publicizing what turned out to be a bogus memo from a questionable source. The person maligned had to bring suit before CBS admitted it, IIRC. (It involved a drug story and California - anyone remember a name?)

The insistence that these documents be accepted as authentic (without any details regarding the source and without the originals to look at) until "extraordinary" evidence is presented looks remarkably like Dan Rather's defense on the air: The preponderence of evidence is in favor of the documents, but we'll consider retracting our statements if they can be shown conclusively to be forgeries.

Easy - just change the burden of proof for any facts or opinions contrary to what you'd like to believe, anyway.

As an aside, what would extraordinary evidence look like? So far, I only know what extraordinary evidence ISN'T: any evidence shown tyo date.


N/A
 
To believe that these documents are obvious forgeries you have to accept that a major media outlet got duped by a very easy forgery. That, to me, is pretty extraordinary.

My position is not that these documents are authentic, but that they have not been proved one way or another.

At least, that has been my position up until now.

What would "extraordinary proof" look like? First, I will say what it would not look like. The majority of the evidence presented has been showing that these documents could be produced on a word processor. Yes, indeed, they could have been. Word processors can mimic typewriters. That's their job.

Another set of evidence presented has been of the form, "Typewriters can't do X". However, typewriters can do X, where X is superscripts, Times New Roman, whatever. One model, the IBM Executive, Model D, can do all of them.

To rise to the level of "extraordinary proof", I would have to see investigative journalists and experts in the field tell me that these documents couldn't be produced on any typewriter they could find. I would like to see people put their reputations on the line. A blogger doesn't have much of a reputation. Like us, they can write whatever they want.

Until today, I hadn't seen that, but it begins to look like this might be happening. The Washington Post had a harsh article. National Review has finally jumped on it, although they haven't come out quite yet and said they were forgeries.




And here is a quote from a piece taken from NR, quoting the New York Post, I think.

"The expert chosen by CBS to check Dan Rather's disputed National Guard documents got his start as a graphologist analyzing "Spirituality in Handwriting" and lacks recognized document training, The Post has learned. "

Meaningless, but amusing.


Meanwhile, Laura Bush called them fake, which means that people in the White House are talking about them as fake, and while they are not ready to put an official "fake" stamp on them, at least some of them must believe them to be fake.




I find all of this quite extraordinary. My skepticism had been based on the fact that I didn't think a staff like Dan Rather's could accept something so easily. If it was that obviously a fake, surely someone would have raised a red flag, and they wouldn't have rushed to publish before they could get a better view of this. Right?

Well, maybe. I don't think "extraordinary proof" has yet been presented, but it's getting closer. I;ve definitely been moved toward the "fake" side in the last 24 hours.
 
Meadmaker said:
I find all of this quite extraordinary. My skepticism had been based on the fact that I didn't think a staff like Dan Rather's could accept something so easily. If it was that obviously a fake, surely someone would have raised a red flag, and they wouldn't have rushed to publish before they could get a better view of this. Right?
Maybe. It will certainly be an important question when the brass at CBS eventually decides whose heads should roll.

This article claims it was a two-part screwup - that the DNC didn't know if it was legit or not, and trusted CBS to do the heavy research, and CBS, delighted to have a hot scoop, ran with it after some pro forma research and in spite of some doubts.
 
Meadmaker said:
To believe that these documents are obvious forgeries you have to accept that a major media outlet got duped by a very easy forgery. That, to me, is pretty extraordinary.

Sorry, but CBS has now admitted they only had a handwriting expert take a cursory glance. They have basically admitted to not properly investigating it.

I'm not sure why you can't come to grips with this.
 
Meadmaker said:
What would "extraordinary proof" look like? First, I will say what it would not look like. The majority of the evidence presented has been showing that these documents could be produced on a word processor. Yes, indeed, they could have been. Word processors can mimic typewriters. That's their job.

Another set of evidence presented has been of the form, "Typewriters can't do X". However, typewriters can do X, where X is superscripts, Times New Roman, whatever. One model, the IBM Executive, Model D, can do all of them.

A number of people -- people with experience in this specific field -- have set out to duplicate the different anomolies contained in the questionable memos. To date no one has.

The $10,000.00 challenge is now over $37,000. If it is so easy to locate a typewriter that can make a memo that matches up, then for the love of Pete, collect it.

Do you have a cite for the model D? Or where you are getting the information about what it can do? I might like the chance to pick up an easy 37 grand, myself.
 
I have searched high and low for specifics on the Model D, but have found only cites that appear to list the exact same bits of information that have nothing specific enough to form an opinion on. Nor have I seen examples of writing from it that would allow any conclusions.

I did find reference to the latest Washington Post article, however, which mentions this machine:

Thomas Phinney, program manager for fonts for the Adobe company in Seattle, which helped to develop the modern Times New Roman font, disputed Glennon’s statement to CBS. He said “fairly extensive testing” had convinced him that the fonts and formatting used in the CBS documents could not have been produced by the most sophisticated IBM typewriters in use in 1972, including the Selectric and the Executive. He said the two systems used fonts of different widths.

Note that the CBS consultant was not allowed to look at the actual documents in CBS' possession, either, but had to use the same PDFs everyone else is looking at.


Summary:

Pro CBS: A typewriter repair guy that says he *cannot authenticate the documents*, but who asserts that these *types* of features were available.

Con CBS: Adobe guy that says *after testing* that he is convinced neither the Selectric nor Executive could have produced this memo.

Conclusion: Bolsters the case for forgery.

If the text is so easy to duplicate, why doesn't one of the mysterious experts used by CBS simply produce a document showing it? There are thousands of the typewriters available; surely CBS can manage to get ahold of one *somewhere*.

Conclusion: Allows inference that it cannot be done. Hardly conclusive, but it certainly has trouble passing the smell test.

For that matter, why doesn't CBS just release what documents they have to a panel of experts and let them have a look at the pages for themselves?

Conclusion: Under the circumstances, almost *compels* an inference against CBS. If 60 minutes were claiming someone else had forged documents in their possession, do you think for a moment that the failure to produce those documents and have them tested by independent experts would be accepted?

CNN experts (multiple) conclude forgery. ABC experts conclude forgery. Pentagon states forgery. CBS (other division) expert states forgery probable. Washington post experts conclude forgery.


Most telling for me -- and what pushed me out of the wait-and-see camp -- was the defense put forward by Mr. Rather. It failed to fairly meet the substance of the criticisms against CBS and relied on experts that have indicated that they did *not* say what is being attributed to them.

CBS also relied on anonymous experts that it will not reveal, even though people it consulted later are pushed forward hastily if anyhting they say can be considered useful. If CBS won't name their experts and show their reasoning, then the claim that such experts exist -- especially given how the handwriting expert has now claimed that his limited opinion was distorted by CBS -- is worthless.

Finally, CBS states that the papers come from an unimpeachable, yet anonymous, source.

Sorry, you don't get both. It is, of course, literally true that the source is unimpeachable -- since we aren't told who it is, we can hardly impeach him/her -- but you cannot simultaneously hide a person's identity and hold their hidden identity as support for your position.

CBS may well be entitled to hide the identity of a source (assuming the memos are authentic for the moment). However, that protection is a *shield* meant for protection. Instead, CBS is using it as a sword -- claiming that an anonymous source is unimpeachable or trustworthy without revealing their identity is just a convoluted way of saying "trust me." It isn't evidence; it isn't support; it isn't a credible defense.

N/A
 
"...It is, of course, literally true that the source is unimpeachable -- since we aren't told who it is, we can hardly impeach him/her..."


Her...

Its a her.
;)
 
Bush Bribed Guard Officials.

New Bush Memo Unearthed.

I love the CBS News forged-document story. To paraphrase the abominable snowman from the Bugs Bunny cartoons, I want to hug it and squeeze it and name it George. Okay, I don't want to name it George, but you get my drift. If this story were hot fudge, I would smear it all over my body and then roll around in nougat. --Jonah Goldberg
 
NoZed Avenger said:
I looked at the ads, but don't see anything -- is there one in particular, or am I missing it?

One of the ads shows samples from four fonts and says that the Model A is capable of nine other fonts. Alas, that's all I could glean from it.
 
epepke said:
One of the ads shows samples from four fonts and says that the Model A is capable of nine other fonts. Alas, that's all I could glean from it.

Ah, Ok. Check.
 
My first reaction, upon seeing the documents, is that they were not only a forgery, but an obvious one at that. I used many typewriters in the '70s (and typed my first book with a Smith Corona electric), and I knew what a hassle it was to do things like superscripts and the like. Non-uniform spacing was not available for any typewriter that a student could buy....

But I also remember, in 1976, visiting an office in my home town, in which the folks there COULD type in what we now commonly know as a Times font, and that used non-uniform spacing. The reason I remember it was because I had no idea such office machines even existed. The documents that these folks showed me looked like they came from a print shop, not a typewriter. I was very impressed. (Sorry, don't remember the make or model that these folks used.)

So then I wasn't so sure that the 1973 documents were fake, just by looking at them. I haven't seen a convincing case yet, either way, but I still am pretty darn suspicious that the documents are phonies.
 

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