Six Reason to Question Vaccinations

And what does "correlation" mean to you ?

Correlation: the degree to which two or more attributes or measurements on the same group of elements show a tendency to vary together.

From Dictionary.com. The attributes may vary together, but does it mean they are linked ?

A statistically significant correlation coefficient implies they are linked in some way but not necessarily directly to each other. For example, drownings and ice cream cones are highly correlated. They are both linked to a third causal variable, temperature. Figuring out the linkage between correlated variables can be quite difficult in some situations.
 
Last edited:
A statistically significant correlation coefficient implies they are linked in some way but not necessarily directly to each other. For example, drownings and ice cream cones are highly correlated. They are both linked to a third causal variable, temperature. Figuring out the linkage between correlated variables can be quite difficult in some situations.

I'm sorry, but you are off-base here. A statistically significant correlation coefficient does not imply that they are linked in some way under the conditions that I and others have outlined. Two variables that progressively increase over time will vary together (i.e. a statistically significant correlation coefficient can be obtained), but the only connection between the two is the relationship with time. To say that these two variables are linked makes the use of the term meaningless. Your example of the drownings and ice cream cones does not address this complaint, since those are not progressive variables, whereas both child mortality rates and vaccination uptake rates are. That is child mortality rates have been decreasing over time irrespective of vaccination and as a new vaccine is introduced its use gradually increases. An understanding of how the two are linked really has to be based on individual, not group data, when both are subject to long-term trends. Otherwise the relationship between the long-term trends dominates the analysis.

Linda
 
I'm sorry, but you are off-base here. A statistically significant correlation coefficient does not imply that they are linked in some way under the conditions that I and others have outlined. Two variables that progressively increase over time will vary together (i.e. a statistically significant correlation coefficient can be obtained), but the only connection between the two is the relationship with time. To say that these two variables are linked makes the use of the term meaningless. Your example of the drownings and ice cream cones does not address this complaint, since those are not progressive variables, whereas both child mortality rates and vaccination uptake rates are. That is child mortality rates have been decreasing over time irrespective of vaccination and as a new vaccine is introduced its use gradually increases. An understanding of how the two are linked really has to be based on individual, not group data, when both are subject to long-term trends. Otherwise the relationship between the long-term trends dominates the analysis.

Linda

No no, Beth and Ivor are entirely right. The decrease in pirates really has caused global warming.:rolleyes:
 
Based on your response, my assumption is that you have no idea what the actual correlation is between the variables you referenced and whether or not it's significant. Instead, you want me to buy your argument that they are, in fact, related and comment on their relationship assuming that fact. Then, when I refuse, you insult my understanding of the concept. That's a winning argument.
Bold added.

No, you claimed that correlation means a relationship. I am trying to teach you that claim is wrong.

Facts are not insults. I am not a lawyer; thus, if you call me ignorant of the law- it is not an insult.

Incidently, the correlation coefficient {snip}
Is something I learned and understand.
 
A statistically significant correlation coefficient implies they are linked in some way but not necessarily directly to each other. For example, drownings and ice cream cones are highly correlated. They are both linked to a third causal variable, temperature. Figuring out the linkage between correlated variables can be quite difficult in some situations.

Oooh, so now it's a significant correlation !

You might as well get to your final definition before we move on.
 
[slight derail]

This reminds me of one of my pet peeves with some literature attempting to prove the validity of a new assay for a standard analyte. SOP for demonstrating this is to analyse a range of samples by both the new method and the current one - the "reference method". There isn't a perfect statistical method for declaring this to be AOK, partly because the range of concentrations in the chosen samples has a significant impact on the resulting correlation coefficient, and partly because exacly how good you need to be varies with both analyte and the situation in which the assay will be used (e.g. emergency interim guesstimate or detailed case workup).

In this context the correlation coefficient can be a useful thing to look at, if cycled through brain. However, what is NOT valid is simply to announce smugly that "there was a highly significant correlation (p<0.001)". Yeah, right. When you're measuring the same variable by two methods? I should bloody well hope so! But that's hardly good enough to demonstrate that the new assay performs well enough for actual use. (Hint. r<0.98 is pretty much mandatory, and r>0.99 for the really staple assays, for a reasonable clinical range of sample concentrations.)

Just a little example of another misunderstanding of what a "significant" correlation can be held to mean, at the other end of the scale.

</derail>

Rolfe.
 
A couple of questions:

1) What do you think causes child mortality to decline over time in a developed country like the US?

2) What do you think causes an increase in vaccine uptake over time in a developed country like the US, for vaccines that have been around for many years?
 
1) What do you think causes child mortality to decline over time in a developed country like the US?

Health care, nutrition, dental care, living conditions, peace time (not much applicable in the US, of course), crime rate, etc.
 
I'm sorry, but you are off-base here. A statistically significant correlation coefficient does not imply that they are linked in some way under the conditions that I and others have outlined. Two variables that progressively increase over time will vary together (i.e. a statistically significant correlation coefficient can be obtained), but the only connection between the two is the relationship with time. To say that these two variables are linked makes the use of the term meaningless. Your example of the drownings and ice cream cones does not address this complaint, since those are not progressive variables, whereas both child mortality rates and vaccination uptake rates are. That is child mortality rates have been decreasing over time irrespective of vaccination and as a new vaccine is introduced its use gradually increases. An understanding of how the two are linked really has to be based on individual, not group data, when both are subject to long-term trends. Otherwise the relationship between the long-term trends dominates the analysis.

Linda


I agree that a correlation may indicate a relationship no more "meaningful" than that of piracy and global warming. Still (and I'm assuming a correlation actually exists between those two variables, I haven't run the numbers myself) a relationship does exist between the two variables. That's what a significant correlation means.

"Meaningful" is a quality that we humans assign to relationships based on what we value. It's up to us to look at the variables to decide if the relationship is "meaningful". Pirates and global warming - not meaningful. Vaccination rates and under 5 mortality rates - well, if you, skeptigirl, cuddles, or anyone else wants to claim the correlation between those two variables is not meaningful, I will not dispute you on that. Certainly, it might be no more than simultaneous but otherwise unrelated trends. I'm not arguing that point, though most here seem to think that I am. All I'm saying is that a correlation coefficient statistically significantly different from zero indicates that a relationship (or association if you prefer) exists. It does. It's up to us to choose variables that make sense to look at together.
 
Last edited:
Here's my simple solution: bring back smallpox and let polio climb again to epidemic proportions. That'll shut-up all the anti-vax nutters.

-Dr. Imago
 
Here's my simple solution: bring back smallpox and let polio climb again to epidemic proportions. That'll shut-up all the anti-vax nutters.

-Dr. Imago

Yes, it certainly would. Personally, I think that's a rather high price to pay just to shut them up. I'd rather listen to them, address their concerns when valid and try to persuade them otherwise when their concerns are not valid. In the end, I'd prefer to allow them to opt out of getting vaccinations for themselves or their children if they so choose rather than force it upon them.
 
I got a tetanus shot today, and a TB test to see if I need a TB shot. The nurse said she didn't want to give me any unnecessary shots, in spite of my just begging for the shot instead of the TB test. She wants my records from childhood before she gives me any more shots. Why won't she just give a bunch a shots? Sheesh, protocols. So, I won't get any extra shots they figure I don't need. But I have to spend money to call BC and get my childhood records from them. What a pain. Would have been easier just to get the shots. Harumph.
 
Yes, it certainly would. Personally, I think that's a rather high price to pay just to shut them up. I'd rather listen to them, address their concerns when valid and try to persuade them otherwise when their concerns are not valid. In the end, I'd prefer to allow them to opt out of getting vaccinations for themselves or their children if they so choose rather than force it upon them.

That would be all well and good if they LISTENED to the answers to their questions instead of harping on and on and on the same old answered questions. But, nobody listens, they just harp on and on. and ON AND ON. IT never ends, no matter how many answers they get. They just go back to the quacks for the same old tired garbage dredged all over the internet. One gets tired of answering the same questions over and over again when nobody asking them listens to the answers. They just want to accuse with the same old tired lies about conspiracies and non-related health problems. ON and ON and ON.

If the liars would stop lying and misleading people in hopes that people would buy their alternatives, then there wouldn't be the mass confusion with the ware the alties are waging against good common sense.

The only way it seems to debunk the lies about diseases being benign is to show people how much harm they can do, but that is really unethical too. So, people are left to make misinformed choices about "vaccine damage" and leave their children open to diseases. Well, now the unethical ones are the ones lying to parents about how harmless diseases are and how you should use vitamins or oils instead. And who gets villified??? Vaccine makers???

Stuff it. The liars need to stop lying. It's not anyone's fault but theirs if children are harmed by diseases. There's just no way to stop liars though, because there is freedom of speech.

So, the answers the questions are repeated over and over, but unverified anecdotes about kids maimed by vaccines get all the attention. How does one tell parents these stories are just stories made up by people whose children were actually harmed by their own genetic make-up or even the alternatives that could contain anything?

It's the source that people listen to or not. The answers are there, but people choose to listen to liars or the misinformed. We humans are good at tuning into what we want to hear rather than what may be fact-based information. We're predisposed to filtering out what we don't want to agree with. Antivaccinators are good at getting people to tune into them and filter out facts.

So, don't say others aren't listening and answering parents' questions. The answers are repeated over and over again. Liars are also listening and answering with their versions. It's easier to listen to the liars as they have emotional appeals that win over explanations about ethyl and methyl mercury.

So, try as we might, we can be relieved that enough haven't stopped vaccination to cause too many deaths so far.

Some people are panicking in their concerns, and harping about "mandatory vaccines". This does just feed the antivaccine frenzy about "forcing people agains their will" rather than viewing it from a protecting their children perspective.

Just don't claim the answers aren't out there. They are. Especially if you actually ask a healthcare professional directly.
 
Yes, it certainly would. Personally, I think that's a rather high price to pay just to shut them up. I'd rather listen to them, address their concerns when valid and try to persuade them otherwise when their concerns are not valid. In the end, I'd prefer to allow them to opt out of getting vaccinations for themselves or their children if they so choose rather than force it upon them.

Oh, I used to be that optimistic and idealistic too. Unfortunately, my day-to-day reality as beaten that out of me.
:explode

-Dr. Imago
 
Homeopathy causes child to die of eczema

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national...homeopath-rules/2007/11/19/1195321684868.html

This condition is easily treated, but because of the the usual altie claims that real medicine is more harmful than it is worth with claims that "steroids" are bad for everyone the child had to die a miserable death instead. Corticosteroids and other topicals used to tret eczema are not the same as steroids that regulate growth etc. But, the usual overblown altie claims about real medicine have claimed yet another victim. This also happens with claims about vaccines, but herd immunity is keeping things in check for now in most places.


A doctor could have explained this to the parents, had they asked a real medical doctor, but no, they listened to misinformation. Isn't it great to have choices in medical care? Wheee!!!! Free to choose and cause your child a miserable death that was easily preventable. Yahooo! Hear hear for choices and lies and misinformation that alties offer!!!
 
Last edited:
A doctor could have explained this to the parents, had they asked a real medical doctor, but no, they listened to misinformation. Isn't it great to have choices in medical care? Wheee!!!! Free to choose and cause your child a miserable death that was easily preventable. Yahooo! Hear hear for choices and lies and misinformation that alties offer!!!

If a father beats his children he gets arrested, the children taken...

If a parent tries to prevent his child from recieving a life saving blood transfusion based on religious dogma, what happens?

If a parent prevents their children from getting immunized (protection from serious, and potentially FATAL diseases), what happens.

I know the details, the degrees, are not the same in each case, but are we not sitting atop a slippery slope? Where do the rights of parents to choose end, and the duty of the health profession and lawmakers to protect those who cannot protect themselves begin.

Things to ponder.

TAM:)
 
Oh, I used to be that optimistic and idealistic too. Unfortunately, my day-to-day reality as beaten that out of me.
:explode

-Dr. Imago
You have my sympathies. I have found that changing my job, which significantly altered my day-to-day activities, I was able to regain a great deal of the optimism of my youth. :shysmile

That would be all well and good if they LISTENED to the answers to their questions instead of harping on and on and on the same old answered questions. But, nobody listens, they just harp on and on. and ON AND ON. IT never ends, no matter how many answers they get. They just go back to the quacks for the same old tired garbage dredged all over the internet. One gets tired of answering the same questions over and over again when nobody asking them listens to the answers. They just want to accuse with the same old tired lies about conspiracies and non-related health problems. ON and ON and ON.

Eos, I'm going to delete most of what you've posted. You spend a lot words moaning about how awful it is that many people listen to lying quacks instead of respected medical officials about such things as vaccinations. You call them liars many many times.

The thing that Ivan and I and some others have been trying to harp on has to do with being able to trust in what the people setting policy are recommending. The issue of bias on the part of the CDC vaccine committee was a big one for me. When I actually started looking into vaccination issues over a decade ago, I was quite disillusions to discover that so many members required official waivers of the conflict of interest regulations in order to participate on the committee.

Now, I understand the need for experts and that it's difficult to obtain the quality of specialists in the area who don't have such ties. I can certainly understand that the committee couldn't function without having some such members participate. But I don't find that need an acceptable excuse for having the majority (and sometimes all) of the members having such ties with the vaccine manufactures.

The fact that when I actually researched the issue, I found that was the case caused me to lose trust in their recommendations. The committee membership as a whole was going to be biased in favor of recommending vaccines. I could no longer trust their recommendations.*

Now, I'm intelligent enough to research stuff for myself. I can figure out that when the vaccine committee publishes their recommendations and identifies one of the reasons for recommending certain vaccines at certain ages because it's easier to get compliance, that isn't a consideration I need to apply to my own, personal, decision-making process.

But most people have not the time, the inclination, or (dare I say it) the ability to read and understand the actual policy recommendations and the reasoning behind them. They have to trust someone else. It would be nice if it were the vaccine committee and not their homopathic counselor. But frankly, I can't blame them for not trusting the vaccine committee recommendations. I don't feel I can; instead I feel I have to do the research myself.

If a father beats his children he gets arrested, the children taken...

If a parent tries to prevent his child from recieving a life saving blood transfusion based on religious dogma, what happens?

If a parent prevents their children from getting immunized (protection from serious, and potentially FATAL diseases), what happens.

I know the details, the degrees, are not the same in each case, but are we not sitting atop a slippery slope? Where do the rights of parents to choose end, and the duty of the health profession and lawmakers to protect those who cannot protect themselves begin.

Things to ponder.

TAM:)

Indeed, serious question to ponder. I think vaccines get so much debate space because they are quite literally on the bleeding edge. With some vaccines, I think it's reasonable to require them, at least of public school children. Other vaccines, not so reasonable and, IMO, an unwarrented intrusion of public policy into private medical decisions.


* I think the vaccine committee members are most likely decent, intelligent, hard-working individuals devoted to developing policies to safely and effectively improve the health of the general public. That I think they are biased is no more a denigration of them than to say that I think they are human beings with the normal failings of all human beings.
 
Last edited:

Back
Top Bottom