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Simple Question About AGW

Are you refusing to read Tamino's blog posts because you don't regard him as an authority? That would explain some things - such as your evidence ignorance of what Tamino's challenge is.

And it would also explain those things. Tamino explains why 11-year smoothing in correlation analysis is problematic because it introduces large-scale auto-correlation.

My my, now. It was me who said I did like Tamino's blog and his technique, or have you forgotten?

D'Aleo's responses can be seen on the thread, linked to by fsol. Your characterisation of Tamino is clearly invalid, but unsurprising. After all, he say sthings you don't want to hear and supports them with sound statistical analysis. That's harsh.
Suit yourself. Like I said, I'm glad you have a new handler there. Well, but just an earnest amateur, unlike Gavin Schmidt, who is a published professional "climatologist".

At least you're admitting that sceptical posts can be made at RC, which seems to be a shift in your belief system.
Both Tamino and RC are moderated blogs in which many posts are not allowed. I was discussing the rather routine debunking of circuituous RC logic here on JREF.
 
Suit yourself. Like I said, I'm glad you have a new handler there. Well, but just an earnest amateur, unlike Gavin Schmidt, who is a published professional "climatologist".


A 'new handler'.

What the hell? :boggled:
 
Tamino criticised the work and then D'aleo comes back with "Maybe you never had a real job and had to work with real data to make real forecasts that had to satisfy real clients to make real money...."

So just who was attacking who?

What's your point? The discussion between those two is in several other places other than the thread referenced here, and goes back a ways, as I recall. Sometimes people are angry and sometimes there not, etc. Which was why I said "just inconsistency" and tried to bring a few quotes to show that.

It is nice to see that you apparently have no answer to the rest of my post though. I wonder what to make of that...

I wonder what happens to unanswered things in posts I make also....

Well, let's see. Sometimes sidetracks are not taken because they are sidetracks. Sometimes questions do not look interesting. Etc. Anyone is welcome to restate or repeat something if they think it is important, of course.
 
Tamino criticised the work and then D'aleo comes back with "Maybe you never had a real job and had to work with real data to make real forecasts that had to satisfy real clients to make real money...."

Unforgettably frickin' sad. And mhaze is cheering for D'Aleo because he's a proper scientist. Make of that what you will.
 
A 'new handler'.

What the hell? :boggled:

Well, quite, and this from a McIntyre groupie. Makes you think, if you haven't thought it long ago.

So is this "handler" as in agent of Conspiracy, or "handler" as in animal-trainer? The first says "loonie", the second is reprehensible. Maybe mhaze can waffle out something he would sadly regard as a third option. I hope so.
 
My my, now. It was me who said I did like Tamino's blog and his technique, or have you forgotten?

That's not the same as reading him. For all I know you like the pictures and the layout.

And you say you liked it when you knew that D'Aleo wouldn't be allowed to respond. "It can't exist." Remember?

Both Tamino and RC are moderated blogs in which many posts are not allowed. I was discussing the rather routine debunking of circuituous RC logic here on JREF.

You weren't discussing you were claiming victory for the likes of you. No doubt you think you're kicking ass, but you're sadly mistaken.

When your posts are moderated you find that you've really got nothing to say. I can see why you'd resent that. It must be very discomfiting for someone as driven as you are to keep saying something, even if it's gibberish. What the hey, you never stand and defend anything, so why not gibber? You move on and claim victory in retrospect, when your painful memories have faded.

You could earn yourself a real claim to victory by signing-up to the "global warming has stopped" end of Tamino's challenge. Not now, nor in the past, but in the unknown future. I will very publicly cede victory to you, and only ever say nice things about you afterwards.

Is that not a tempting prize? Considering the risk (which is surely minimal, given that AGW is so miasmic in your opinion)? Or do you feel like disparaging me more?

If money's all that counts to you, that's your loss. Treasure yadda trash; good name yadda blood-bath.
 
What's your point? The discussion between those two is in several other places other than the thread referenced here, and goes back a ways, as I recall. Sometimes people are angry and sometimes there not, etc.

Of course people become angered, but it's how they act that's the mark of them.

'"Maybe you never had a real job and had to work with real data to make real forecasts that had to satisfy real clients to make real money....".

That's D'Aleo. And there's the point. Sarcastic and puerile. More than a hint of fury. And really bad tactically. There's a lot to be said for the Delete key.

Tamino's demolition of D'Aleo is clear, concise and devastating. In one recent blog post. If the exchange has been going on a while, why is D'Aleo still so angry? Tamino isn't. Tamino's in his comfort-zone - he knows he's right, because he knows why. You're not in your comfort-zone which is why you've clung to D'Aleo's qualifications, not his argument. You've attacked Tamino - D'Aleo's responses "can't exist", remember? - not the argument. Perhaps you can't follow the argument, or are too scared to find out what it is.

Which was why I said "just inconsistency" and tried to bring a few quotes to show that.

You avoided science, statistics, anything to do with the subject, and clung to blog policies. Are you quite sure you wouldn't be more comfortable in the Politics or Conspiracy Forums? Philosophy, even?

I wonder what happens to unanswered things in posts I make also....

Such as? I respond to many things you post (it amuses me) and you mostly ignore me, moving on. You seem to have this illusion that you dictate the course of the conversation, and you really don't.

Well, let's see. Sometimes sidetracks are not taken because they are sidetracks.

Sometimes they're pointed out. Like when in Arctic summer you want to talk about the Antarctic, and when the subject turns to the Antarctic you want to talk about last summer in the Arctic. Or the Medieval Warm Period, whatever.

You must be simply jonesing to post a picture of Al Gore. Go ahead and indulge yourself, you've more than proved that particular point.

Sometimes questions do not look interesting. Etc. Anyone is welcome to restate or repeat something if they think it is important, of course.

fsol responded to what you thought worth saying in the first place. You ignore his response. Why? Maybe it wasn't interesting in the first place. Or maybe you've realised you have no response. I favour the latter, unsurprsingly.

Your wriggling has become a subject of interest in itself. So at least you've made that much of a mark on the world.
 
Arctic warming unprecedented?

http://www.springerlink.com/content/8j71453650116753/?p=2aebfff0ca6540fab5f10146ad4e84b7&pi=5
The 200-year long warm period centered on ad 1000 was significantly warmer than the late-twentieth century (p < 0.05) and is supported by other local and regional paleoclimate data. The new tree-ring evidence from Torneträsk suggests that this “Medieval Warm Period” in northern Fennoscandia was much warmer than previously recognized.
Scientific results that do not change, irregardless of the outcome of a bet by an anonymous Internet Blogger, Tamino.
 
Scientific results that do not change, irregardless of the outcome of a bet by an anonymous Internet Blogger, Tamino.

You're right. It says nothing about the current rate of warming.
 
It also says nothing about global temperature trends of the past.

Global extents?

http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/data/mwp/description.jsp
The project's reason for being begins with the claim of many scientists - and essentially all of the world's radical environmentalists - that earth's near-surface air temperature over the last two decades of the 20th century (and continuing to the present) was higher than it has been during any similar period of the past millennium or more. This claim is of utmost importance to these climate alarmists; for it allows them to further claim there is something unnatural about recent and possibly ongoing warming, which allows them to claim that the warming has its origins in anthropogenic CO2 emissions
 
It also says nothing about global temperature trends of the past.

Especially as the paper actually says that other "MWPs" occur at different times depending where they are.

Although the paleoclimatic records show a high degree
of similarity in North Fennoscandian and, possibly, North
Atlantic trends over the last millennia, it is important to
also note that there are large regional differences in the
timing and the magnitude of climatic periods such as the
‘‘Medieval Warm Period’’ (Hughes and Diaz 1994;
Crowley and Lowery 2000) and the ‘‘Little Ice Age’’
(Bradley 1992; Jones and Briffa 2001). Hence, although the
climate of northern Fennoscandia seems to have been
significantly warmer during medieval times as compared to
the late-twentieth century, the published composite records
of northern hemisphere climate (Moberg et al. 2005) do not
show a conspicuously warm period around AD 1000.
 

None of this has any bearing on Taminos bet. It is what it is. It doesn't depend on paleoclimate reconstructions, just the surface temp record. If you don't want to stick your neck out and take the bet that's fine. Just stop trying to make it into something it isn't.
 
It turns out that 2007 was the second hottest.

Which means the prediction was pretty darn accurate.

This goes to show how reasonable you are, sharing with readers how accurate the Met Office was despite that you've been critical of them. Right? :)

Oh yes Varoche, you must always choose that which best supports your view rather than the most accurate. It is also interesting that Hansen is now the outlier :)

Shall we dig up all the studies showing the warm bias in the surface station network?

So Varoche, please explain how the surface, based on AGW hypothesis, can warm more and faster than the lower troposphere. That is diametrically opposed to AGW, I'm sure you know that. You do understand what the hypotheses say?

Megalodon, please link to the post where I said 2007 would be much cooler than 2006. Thank you.
 

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