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Simple climate change refutation challenge

Megalodon said:
March temperatures are out.
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They were out last month in these parts, and they weren't very welcome. It's not that warm even now, when you're out of the sun. (Of which there's been plenty.) Something to do with the Jet Stream, from what I've heard. What the hey, it's just weather, and we're used to lots of that around here.
 
Alric said:
So each decade is warmer than the previous.
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Yes, but in GWSceptic theory this decade was the peak of the cycle. Perhaps. Just as every previous decade was perhaps the peak of the cycle. Maybe the next decade will be if this one doesn't end well. Maybe it won't be if it doesn't start well. An El Nino for Christmas 2010 would present them with a quandary.

A resurrected thread. I notice (in passing) that the post that apparently killed it was one of mine. Am I really the kiss of death? Or is it more a team-effort, as I prefer to think?

The problem with challenges is that when all challengers have quit the field there's nothing much going on.
 
CapelDodger said:
They were out last month in these parts, and they weren't very welcome. It's not that warm even now, when you're out of the sun. (Of which there's been plenty.) Something to do with the Jet Stream, from what I've heard. What the hey, it's just weather, and we're used to lots of that around here.
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Yup, you betcha... Here we had snow and hail as late as early April. However, I haven't been here for long enough to assess how usual or unusual it is.

Back home, in Portugal, it was an unusualy mild winter, and they've had daily maximums in the 20s since early February.

But, that's why the G is there to begin with...
 
Geckko said:
I believe there are four credible independent estimates produced for global mean temeprature. Can I ask how you have settled on this one only for your analyses?
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It's the database I keep handy. Any particular problem?

That reminds me that I still owe you some residuals... I'll try to PM them for you today. Sorry for the delay.
 
Megalodon said:
It's the database I keep handy. Any particular problem?

That reminds me that I still owe you some residuals... I'll try to PM them for you today. Sorry for the delay.
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Just that there are four different measures and they provide some pretty different results.
 
mhaze said:
Just use Hansen's GISS numbers.

Almost magically they are sooo close to Hansen's predictions!:biggrin:
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Yes, and both the NCDC and HadCRU are in close agreement with the GISS.

So I guess it's back to the evil green-pinko commie scientists wanting to take over the world.

Come to the meetings, we have cookies...
 
Megalodon said:
Yes, and both the NCDC and HadCRU are in close agreement with the GISS.
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When the different base-lines are taken into account :). Watts (for one) doesn't seem to have grasped that yet.

GISS trends are higher, of course, because they include the Arctic ocean where a lot of warming is going on. As I understand it HadCRU excludes what appears to be a substantial heat-sink.

So I guess it's back to the evil green-pinko commie scientists wanting to take over the world.

Come to the meetings, we have cookies...
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It's the open bar that really pulls 'em in.
 
Geckko said:
I believe there are four credible independent estimates produced for global mean temeprature. Can I ask how you have settled on this one only for your analyses?
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I see no reason to think the results would be any different. The other measures are lower than GISS, but quite consistently, so you'll get the same contrasts between decades. Each decade warmer than the previous one.

This one hasn't even finished yet; what's passed has been mostly during the down-side of a solar cycle and hasn't seen a sustained El Nino. Then again, it hasn't included a tooled-up volcano either. It has seen some major ice-loss, and the latent heat for that had to come from somewhere. There's less ice to melt now, which implies a reduced heat-sink effect.

All in all, I think this decade's ranking is unlikely to be challenged, absent a seriously tooled-up volcano. Something much bigger than Pinatubo '91.
 
Megalodon said:
Yup, you betcha... Here we had snow and hail as late as early April. However, I haven't been here for long enough to assess how usual or unusual it is.

Back home, in Portugal, it was an unusualy mild winter, and they've had daily maximums in the 20s since early February.

But, that's why the G is there to begin with...
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Absolutely. What the Jet Stream takes from one place it gives back somewhere else.

Hail in April is not unusual in my parts. April is known for its April Showers, and it's easy for showers to become hail when cold air is coming down from the north. The ground is heating up rapidly at this time (equinox was weeks back), winter-wet ground is losing its moisture rapidly, it's a period of weather turmoil between relatively stable winter and summer conditions. Autumn is a much gentler season.

I'm a typical Brit, obsessed with weather :). But we do get so frickin' much of it.


While you're here, have you come across this http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/erhmm-its-the-ipcc-ar4-projections-that-are-falsified/?

The graph with the "Cochrane-Orcutt Fit" smells very bad to me. Let's ignore details such as the ridiculously short timespan yadda-yadda. It looks like a durkin to me. Am I right, do you think?

We're in the warmest decade ever, 2005 and 2007 were the warmest, and a steep downward trend is the best fit? I just don't see it.

(durkin, n : a made-up graph intended to influence the ignorant and/or credulous. See propaganda.)
 
mhaze said:
from http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/pr..._trends_1.html[URL]http://i.ixnp.com/images/v3.25/t.gif[/URL]
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A source provided for one of your pictures; award yourself a cookie.

And of course there's a Pielke in there. Don't you ever feel your world is a bit cramped?

Whatever. Junior has produced a bar-chart. Any father would be proud.

The embarrassment comes from what follows. Before we get into Junior's three points, let's take note of this :

"The data for the Hansen scenarios was obtained at Climate Audit from the ongoing discussion there, and the IPCC and observational data is as described on this site over the past week or so in the forecast verification exercise that I have conducted."
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The Hansen scenarios are clearly laid out in the 1988 paper, available online, even if you're Chinese you can Google it. But here's Junior reaching for the teat of Climate Audit. Not something to evoke a father's pride; far from it, I'd have thought.

The three points :

"1. Trends in all of Hansen's scenarios are above IPCC 1995, 2001, and 2007, as well as three of the four surface observations."
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(Junior has also mastered the "numbered bullet" icon, another source of parental pride were he an eight year old.)

So they are. The point being?

"2. The outlier on surface observations, and the one consistent with Hansen's Scenarios A and B is the NASA dataset overseen by Jim Hansen. Whatever the explanation for this, good scientific practice would have forecasting and data collection used to verify those forecasts conducted by completely separate groups."
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Overseen by Hansen. Who is top-man at GISS. Sinister? I don't think so, Junior seems to. mhaze cites this sad contribution, so by extension he thinks so.

The "SS" of "GISS" actually stands for "Space Studies".

"3. Hansen's Scenario A is very similar to IPCC 1990, which makes sense given their closeness in time, and assumptions of forcings at the time (i.e., thoughts on business-as-usual did not change much over that time)."
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Almost eighteen years have passed since 1990, during which Junior may well have built up some suppressed resentment towards his father. That may explain why his affections seem to have shifted to McIntyre. And might explain why he's giving his name to this babble.
 
Its silly to apply correlations and statistics to temperature data. Just show the averages up to the present and use history and physics to extrapolate temp based on greenhouse gas concentration.

Isn't that what the IPCC does? The temp estimates are best guesses based on sensitivity and greenhouse gas concentration.
 
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