Should the UN intervene in Mali?

[leftysergeant]

It appears that al Qaeda or a clone have duped the Tuareg into helping them set up a secessionist state in the north of Mali. They have now begun instituting an Islamic state totally inconsistant with the traditional values of the people of Mali. It should be clear to any rational person that it is not in the interest of the people of the effected territory to recognize this government as legitimate. The only question should be what the rest of the world should do about the situation.

 

[WildCat]

If it's al Qaeda the drones will soon be flying overhead, with or without the blessing of the UN.

 

[Laeke]

Aren't you reducing to the point of amalgam the situation in Mali? Is the secessionist state even existing other than on paper?
Not denying that salafist/islamist groups are taking advantage of the situation in the north, including "AQ for Islamic Maghreb", but the situation has a long history and is currently so confused I would be cautious of any judgement. I haven't seen a single comprehensive article on the situation that would leave me less confused. But maybe you have better sources: it would interest me.

Besides, let's not fool ourselves: apart from sanctioning a milita... sorry "peacekeeping" operation, what could the UN realistically achieve?
- There's no legit government in Bamako and the junta does not seem to cooperate despite the fact they agreed to step down. There's been reports of gunfights in Bamako between army units in the first days of May.
- Even if there was one, the regular army of Mali was unable to defend the northern half of the country and started retreating before the putsch. Unless it was all a massive blunder, it doesn't seem reasonable to expect they could regain control of the whole country alone.
- Regional diplomatic efforts are constantly failing, and the powers concerned in the area does not seem to agree on the course of action to follow. Algeria is accused (in Malian news sources) of not cooperating, to have provided a safe haven to rebel tuareg groups and even by some to be supporting those. French President Sarkozy said (during the presidential debate) that "Algeria had all the keys to the problem" which I guess is a way to imply they are not doing enough. Anyway, Algeria has not agreed to provide any sort of military help. Do note that 7 algerian diplomats stationed in Gao are held hostage by a splinter islamic group.
- I don't think a lot of powers are comfortable with either a "Tuareg" or "Islamic" splinter state here, but maybe I am mistaken. West African geopolitical issues are not my forte. But maybe everyone will decide to settle for the partition of the country...

Pretty good odds of a French military intervention under UN mandate in the next six months, I'd say, esp. if the situation worsens.

 

[-hp-]

The irony here is that the turmoil in Mali is a direct result of the Western intervention in Libya. If anything, the coalition forces that intervened in Libya should clean up their mess and hope they won't cause the same kind of collateral damage of driving armed militia's into a power vacuum region.

 

[Laeke]

The irony here is that the turmoil in Mali is a direct result of the Western intervention in Libya. If anything, the coalition forces that intervened in Libya should clean up their mess and hope they won't cause the same kind of collateral damage of driving armed militia's into a power vacuum region.

I've seen this said quite a lot in the last two months, reported from the mouth of various political analysts. While I can certainly agree with the claim that soldiers/mercenaries were drove away from Libya with the end of the regime there, the Tuareg situation long predates the intervention in Libya and Kadhafi was hardly a neutral force in previous Tuareg uprisings. I have no problem with Western powers taking part of the blame, I would find it disingenuous if they were the only ones to support it.

 

[leftysergeant]

I can see a justification for a Tuareg homeland. The nation of Mali as the borders were drawn was a legal fiction imposed by an occupying power, with no regard for the cultures upon which those boundaries were drawn.

I would be quite comfortable with the sort of society that would probably develop there once the political situation stabilized.

No rational person is going to like the outcome if the Wahabi invaders are not exterminated or driven back to where they came from. The existance of a Wahabi state will be a threat to world peace and to the liberty of the Tuareg, Hausa, Fula and Songhai people caught inside their border. If the Malian government cannot get its act together to combat this threat, somebody needs to do so, even if it means confirming the independent state under Tuareg rule.

 

[Laeke]

The borders may be artificial but some people from Mali seem pissed off nonetheless... judging from comments on Mali news site. The loss of Tombouctou alone is pretty huge.

I don't have an opinion really on the emergence of a new tuareg state (but I guess all the countries housing tuaregs will not be thrilled...), but if the "islamic terrorism" element could simply be routed out of North Mali, they wouldn't have raised in such a prominent manner in the first place, would they?

I also do not think that any Western powers would commit to a long, painful, complex COIN operation to weed out islamist elements who can just escape and hide in another state (it is pretty much what they did). An UN mandated force would either sit between the separated region or at the very most make a brief show of force if it could push back the tuaregs back on their bases with minimal effort. Until the next tuareg offensive...

 

[Johnny Brant]

Winston Churchill said something that's as true now as it was then- "In war, one has neither friends nor enemies, only interests".
So if western politicians think it's in their countries interest to get involved in Mali (or anywhere else) then they will, but not before..

 

[Laeke]

Two of the main Tuareg group, the MNLA (supposedly more secular) and Ansar Dine (tied to Al Qaida for Islamic Maghreb), decided to merge and to declare the "Islamic state of Azawad".
While everyone is nominally against a partition of Mali, several mediators say the move could ease negociations on virtue of having a single entity to discuss with (Algeria and the Cédéao -Economic Community of West African Countries-)...

It is clear I had overestimated the resistance that the idea of the independent Islamic state would raise. Nobody seems really pro-active in the situation, not even the western powers for which fighting AQMI was a priority. A position encapsulated in a nutshell by this anonymous quote of a diplomat in the Figaro:

"This could be a possibility to go to a political solution where the Tuaregs would push AQMI to the side. Anyway we do not have a choice in the matter as the Mali army no longer exist and nobody seems able to step forward and replace it" (Emphasis mine)

Source text: «Cela peut être une possibilité d'avancer vers une solution politique et de voir les Touaregs mettre à l'écart Aqmi, veut croire un diplomate. De toute façon, nous n'avons pas d'autres choix car l'armée malienne n'existe plus et personne semble en mesure de la remplacer.»
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Seems like the whole thing will drag for months or years unless (until?) it degenerates.