Shermer flips GW stance

Malthus and others who have been prediction doom and gloom have made a major miscalculation. Actually, they simply left out the most important veriable in their calculations. The ability of the human mind to solve problems. That is why Julian Simon's predictions were correct and Paul Ehrlich's were wrong.

From Wkipedia :
Malthus himself noted that many people misrepresented his theory, and took pains to point out that he did not just predict future catastrophe. He argued "...this constantly subsisting cause of periodical misery has existed ever since we have had any histories of mankind, does exist at present, and will for ever continue to exist, unless some decided change takes place in the physical constitution of our nature."
Consider the slums and barrios of the world today, the rural poverty of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and the situation in some US inner-cites and tell me there isn't widespread misery, and with it vice of in all its forms, as Malthus might have put it.

The human mind does not have the capacity to solve every problem within any time-constraints. Nor does it have perfect systems for implementing every plan that's thought up. The Micawberish "Somebody will think something up and do it" doesn't work for me. Population growth is matching or outstripping production growth, and the demographic mix suggests that population growth is likely to speed up.
 
Anecdotes are so cool as evidence. Sorry AUP, I'm giving you a hard time. There is some truth to what he said but it isn't absolute. There are rational people who will change their mind if reason shows that they should. Look at red shift, solar wind, etc. These things were rejected when first introduced but they are now embraced because logic and evidence will eventually triumph with folks that are rational. Taking a defeatist attitude is of little help to anyone. Thank Ed Randi doesn't throw up his hands in such a fashion.
I would claim to be in this group, if you look back to january i often voiced my opinion that global warming isn't caused by humans. I'm still not convinced it is, but i'm not as secure in my position as i was back then, because some of my sources turned out to be false, and because some of my information was replaced by newer information that, sometimes, contradicted my belief.

So, i'm no longer participating as much in the threads about GW, but i'm reading, and i'm studying.

I'm not entirely there yet, but i have changed my position(or rather, the strength of my conviction) in the past 6 months.
 
That is why Julian Simon's predictions were correct and Paul Ehrlich's were wrong.
How have the prices for those commodities performed since 1990? Which,as I recall, was slow year for economic growth, even recessionary in some places.

Ehrlich was more than a little naive in his assumption that supply is the only determinant, not supply and demand. There is such a thing as the business-cycle. Duh. He should have argued for a bet on an average 70's price against an average 90's price, to even out the differences. Adjusted for inflation, of course, that being a feature of the 70's.
Your quote mentions the price of chrome - the demand for which fell of,f how much chrome do you see on cars these days? Compared to the 70' cars or, in spades, the 50's car? - and tin (more plastic containers and frozen/chilled food, how many tins are in your pantry), but not that old workhorse copper. Not a significant enough drop, I suppose.

Who'd have thought that stuff like niobium, gallium and ytterbium would ever feature seriously? The future's hard to predict in detail. In general, it's not so hard at all.
 
My original comment was directed at the way denialists argue against AGW. The subject involves more than just climate models, there's plenty of basic science, such as the infrared spectrum of CO2 and thermodynamics. But the denialists constantly witter on about the models not being perfect, as if that is the subject.

There's a very accurate - dare I say perfect? - analog model being run just outside our windows, but denialists prefer to concentrate on the digital ones. For obvious reasons - the analog model isn't behaving the way they'd like it to.

The similarity between the imperfect models and the absence of an unbroken line of fossilised transition species is that they aren't going to go away. Persuade people, by constant reference to them, that these are the important points and the arguments will never be lost.
I'm sorry, but I don't accept that there is such a thing as a "denialist". I think that is simply a rhetorical device. It is ad hominem.

The facts are that the world has been going through periods of warming and cooling both severe and moderate for just about as long as we can tell. There are many variables for this fluctuation. Humans have only been apart of the equation for a short time. It has been quite valid to note that it is very difficult to access to what extent humans have contributed to GW. It's also worthy to note that the problems inherent in the modeling because there are so many variables.

Many if not most skeptics haven't been skeptical of GW and then AGW for lack of anything better to do. The skeptics have rightfully questioned the science. I realize that you feel that you find yourself on the winning side of a debate and therefore feel that it is appropriate to now lump those skeptics in with those who have fought evolution. This is simply wrong IMO. And disappointing and it has nothing to do with advancing your argument. In the end it is simply ad hominem. But, hey, it's human nature. I get it. Revel in it. I can't stop you.
 
From Wkipedia :
Consider the slums and barrios of the world today, the rural poverty of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and the situation in some US inner-cites and tell me there isn't widespread misery, and with it vice of in all its forms, as Malthus might have put it.

The human mind does not have the capacity to solve every problem within any time-constraints. Nor does it have perfect systems for implementing every plan that's thought up. The Micawberish "Somebody will think something up and do it" doesn't work for me. Population growth is matching or outstripping production growth, and the demographic mix suggests that population growth is likely to speed up.
I don't accept it. Though I do agree that the human mind can't solve every problem. But it humans have done a great job on most to prove Ehrlich wrong. And for the record, the starvation and misery you mention have nothing to do with the ability of the human mind to solve technological problems. The misery is political. To date, population is not the problem. Dictators and idiots who don't care about others are largely the problem.

I don't accept the doom and gloom. We have done an amazing job of producing food and solving problems. Now if we could just overcome backward ideas and bring the world into the 21st Century. There is no utopia but if you could compare Western life today to the lived by those in the past it is pretty incredible. There was a time when there were no days off. No minimum wage. No workplace safety standards, no modern conveniences, the average person didn't go on vacation every year.
 
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How have the prices for those commodities performed since 1990? Which,as I recall, was slow year for economic growth, even recessionary in some places.
You tell me? What has inflation been since then? Do you know that even with our recessions we have been in unprecedented cycle of growth and stable prices for nearly 2 decades?

Ehrlich was more than a little naive in his assumption that supply is the only determinant, not supply and demand. There is such a thing as the business-cycle. Duh. He should have argued for a bet on an average 70's price against an average 90's price, to even out the differences. Adjusted for inflation, of course, that being a feature of the 70's.

Your quote mentions the price of chrome - the demand for which fell of,f how much chrome do you see on cars these days? Compared to the 70' cars or, in spades, the 50's car? - and tin (more plastic containers and frozen/chilled food, how many tins are in your pantry), but not that old workhorse copper. Not a significant enough drop, I suppose.

Who'd have thought that stuff like niobium, gallium and ytterbium would ever feature seriously? The future's hard to predict in detail. In general, it's not so hard at all.
The prices for raw materials are down. More importantly the doom and gloom predicted by Ehrlich never happened. Not even close. Hell, he said England wouldn't survive to see 2,000. How utterly ridiculous that is now. Again, Ehrlich predicted that life would significantly worsen. It hasn't by nearly any standard.
 
I don't think he quite said that. I think that's what he meant though and it does seem like to me that epepke is working too hard too get deep meaning out of a short statement.

That could be true. I could be completely wrong. But I'm still practicing skepticism when I'm doing it, and I'm seeing responses, and that's more data.

I don't see that there is any difference, in principle, between working hard to find flaws in what Shermer says and working hard to find flaws in what Geller says. The only practical difference I can see is the status, in the skeptical movement/community, between Shermer and Geller.

In any event, your comment seems much more reasonble than the other comments that I've seen here. I think that you have to admit that these other comments do exist in this thread.

I also think (though this is weaker) that the fact that only you have made a more reasonable comment on what I wrote also indicates something about the community here. Whether that maps onto the skeptical community at large, I don't know, but it gives me pause.

My assumption is that if one actually asked Shermer about this he would agree that he meant something like AUP, et al. have suggested.

OK, that's an assumption, and we all know about those. I think I'd feel happier with a clarification from Shermer. And the only way I know of to increase the probability of that is to bring up the issue.
 
The bashers are the heretics.

The thumpers are the fundamentalists.
Thank you for that clarification.

Where does that put Presbytarians? No, sorry, forget I asked. Life's confusing enough as it is.

Kill them all, God will know his own. (That's definitely Catholic, and the Vatican prefers to leave the Bible out of it. Catholicism I can understand, it's a business and hardly tries to pretend otherwise.)
 
I don't see that there is any difference, in principle, between working hard to find flaws in what Shermer says and working hard to find flaws in what Geller says. The only practical difference I can see is the status, in the skeptical movement/community, between Shermer and Geller.

I have thought a bit about what you said here.

I have thought that it is interesting that for most of the regular JREF posters there is solid consensus with regards to alleged paranormal/supernatural phenomena, and yet there is no such solid consensus on almost any other topic.

If we are being objective and we are all privy to roughly the same information shouldn't we be coming to roughly the same views on the world at large? But there is no widespread consensus about most political and social ideas here at JREF. So does that mean that we aren't being as objective as we think we are? Does that mean I'm being objective and the people who tend to agree with me are being objective but the rest of you bozos are biased to the point that you have lost your objectivity? I tend to favor the latter explanation, but I am troubled by the idea that it probably is exactly the idea that the people who disagree with me have about me. So what's going on here? I'm not sure, but I suspect that for most people objectivity is far less achievable than we think.
 
I have thought a bit about what you said here.

I have thought that it is interesting that for most of the regular JREF posters there is solid consensus with regards to alleged paranormal/supernatural phenomena, and yet there is no such solid consensus on almost any other topic.

If we are being objective and we are all privy to roughly the same information shouldn't we be coming to roughly the same views on the world at large? But there is no widespread consensus about most political and social ideas here at JREF. So does that mean that we aren't being as objective as we think we are? Does that mean I'm being objective and the people who tend to agree with me are being objective but the rest of you bozos are biased to the point that you have lost your objectivity? I tend to favor the latter explanation, but I am troubled by the idea that it probably is exactly the idea that the people who disagree with me have about me. So what's going on here? I'm not sure, but I suspect that for most people objectivity is far less achievable than we think.
(My emphasis)

Objectivity is never perfect, but we can at least reach for the stars. However many assumptions we recognise and examine, there will always be unrecognised ones. You are clearly one who has reached for the stars from an early age. If you are in any way partisan it's too slight to show up on JREF.

Not something that can be said for everybody.
 
f we are being objective and we are all privy to roughly the same information shouldn't we be coming to roughly the same views on the world at large? But there is no widespread consensus about most political and social ideas here at JREF.

That's a good question. I don't see much political consensus and only a few political patterns. But there are some issues that stand out, GW among them.

So does that mean that we aren't being as objective as we think we are? Does that mean I'm being objective and the people who tend to agree with me are being objective but the rest of you bozos are biased to the point that you have lost your objectivity? I tend to favor the latter explanation, but I am troubled by the idea that it probably is exactly the idea that the people who disagree with me have about me. So what's going on here? I'm not sure, but I suspect that for most people objectivity is far less achievable than we think.

Probably true. I do my best, though I'm an imperfect human being.

What troubles me is the possibility that the skeptical community may make this even more difficult than it need be. At this point, I think that the quo vadis? question is important to ask.
 
Epepke,

I think I agree with everything you're saying about what skepticism should be: we should continue to be skeptical of things after they are supported by evidence - that's the only way we can learn knew things.

I don't know if Shermer was saying that we shouldn't be though. At least, that's not how I read his comments.
When he is saying "skeptical" I think he's using the word there in a colloquial meaning that implies that we think it's false.
This is very different from the meaning of "skeptical" that suggests that we should doubt and look at new evidence, but only ammend our conclusions as far as the evidence warrents.

That's how I read what he said. I may be wrong though.
I think you make a good point though - it is important to continue to doubt our conclusions, even when they are supported by the preponderance of evidence.
 
I'm sorry, but I don't accept that there is such a thing as a "denialist". I think that is simply a rhetorical device. It is ad hominem.

I think there are many such people. My dad, for example! He literally spits on the ground when anybody mentions "global warming," or "climate change." His explanation: "Buncha pinko ****."

That's outright denial. He's not even remotely interested in discussion. I could ignore it, except I sit at sponsored events in his golf club and rotary club meetings where speakers from the Fraser Institute lecture in front of a packed audience with this exact narrative: It's all a conspiracy to destroy their investments, and their patriotic duty is to do anything they can to stop it. These guys own newspapers, advertising companies... one is an MLA, and another is a senator at UBC. These are what I would call denialists.
 
I've been wondering about that for a long time.

1) There's traditional skepticism, which is Hume and people like that, and is sometimes called philosophical skepticism.

2) Then there's the skepticism that is practiced as an integral part of the culture of science, which is what Richard Feynman wrote a lot about.

3) Then there's the skepticism practiced as part of the culture of what might be called the skeptical movement, which is what this newsgroup is about, what the Skeptical Inquirer is about (or was before their quality dropped), what Skeptic is about, etc.

4) Then there's religious skepticism, which is more what Free Inquiry is about.

Yes, the term has many meanings. I'd like to add a type 0, which would be the classical (antique) skepticism, from which the others originated. ie: the Academy.



I am operating from the position of 2, which is what I consider real scientific skepticism. That's just to tell you where I'm coming from. I'm not going to try singing its praises, and I doubt it would have any effect if I did.

A lot of what I see as the success of the skeptical movement has involved comes from the overlap of 3 with 2. There has also been a traditional agreement that 3 not overlap much with 4, due to some sort of coalition building.

My concern, however, is that 3 is becoming less and less overlapped with 2. This is why I criticized Shermer's statement.

I think it's important to understand that skepticism - even the modern movement - has undergone significant changes over the last 30 years.

Consider: why are there three major organizations? CSICOP, Skeptics, and JREF? The answer: they have different agendas, with enough overlap to be still considered 'part of skepticism'.



Your reaction, and the reaction of others, seems to be confirming my observation. I see it as essentially a social response of a community protecting itself. I see your argument as essentially an argument from authority, which is very much disjoint from meaning 2.

It is an argument from authority. Argument from authority is part of how science operates. By rejecting arguments from authority, you are undermining all of science.




Note also that I seem to be the only one saying that.

Don't take this the wrong way, but we hear it all the time. Rarely from skeptics, though. It's very popular when a scientific authority shows up in court to contest, say, creation science. Or when a government panel listens to a debate on homeopathy. The countersuggestion is called populism: that everybody can be their own expert. Altmed argues this, too: your doctor's just a guy. Take charge of your own health. Read some pamphlets, and you'll know more than the MD. Ivory towers are for the tumbling.




That is, skepticism is what Shermer said it is, and he has the right meaning because he founded the Skeptics Society. So what I call the skeptical movement is becoming more and more like a waterfall community, where what skepticism is, what one is supposed to consider an appropriate target for skepticism, and to some extent what one is supposed to conclude are determined by leaders, and that trickles down. Being a member of the community becomes more and more defined by acceptance of these dicta. And then the community protects itself and its leaders in an emotional manner, involving contempt and gang behavior. So, basically, I'm an upstart and have little or no alpha male status, and that makes me wrong.

I didn't say he had *the* right meaning, just because he founded the Skeptics Society. I said that when I disagree with him, it's a sign that I should pay more attention to my position.

Credibility is earned, not assumed to be equal for every participant.



Trouble is, that in itself is not what I consider a skeptical process. Yet I notice it happening a lot in the skeptical movement. There's gang behavior in this forum.

I've also noticed quite a few of what I'd call shibboleths in the skeptical movement. Global warming is one of them. The Monty Hall problem was the first that I noticed, and I found it notable because the Gary Posner article specifically missed the actual skeptical content (in sense 2) in the original question that sparked the controversy. (One letter to the editor printed in SI got it, out of dozens that played follow-the-leader.)

One of the problems is that we are not actually experts in these things, yet we have a metric assload of opinions about them. This is why there's a schmozzle when discussions can only be resolved after detailed analysis.

Years ago, CSICOP got into massive trouble with the Mars fiasco: a bunch of amateurs took it upon themselves to resolve a complicated question.

Skeptics on this forum - and globally, of course - are a real mix. I try to stay within my scope of competence (I exceed it from time to time), but the real problem is that the experts aren't interested in this level of debate, and tend not to participate. All we can do is read their work and talk about it.
 
I sympathize with RandFan's feelings about labeling people as denialists. It is very easy to believe that one has overcome one's own biases so that an objective truth can be known and to denigrate those with whom one disagrees with one kind of epithet or another.

Still, in looking around for order in this world it seems that there are people who are more inclined to believe things that are consistent with their biases than others. And in the case of the AGW issue, I agree with Blutoski that it is reasonable to label some people, including some prominent people as denialists.

I think there is still room for thoughtful people to hold a variety of opinions on this issue, especially given the complexity of the issue. But when one denies the possibility of AGW or only listens to people that have something to say that supports one's view or intentionally misrepresents information then it seems to me that one has moved into the range of being a denialist and labeling somebody like that a denialist seems reasonable to me.
 
It is an argument from authority. Argument from authority is part of how science operates. By rejecting arguments from authority, you are undermining all of science.

Thank you. That's pretty unambiguous.

It's not what I think of as science, but then again, part of the point is to determine what "science" means in the skeptical community.

I'm merely someone who worked as a research scientist for 13 years. I'm not as tall as Penn Jillette, and I don't have a contract with SA like Shermer does, so what the heck do I know? I'm a mere peon.

Don't take this the wrong way, but we hear it all the time.

I'm pretty sure that you do, or at least that you hear something that you are unable and/or unwilling to distinguish from what I'm saying.
 

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