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Seeing Cryptids: The Problems

The Shrike said:
*

Remember the context of the conversation: I claimed to have seen a fisher in Maine. Were I to report that to the Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife, no one would bat an eye because fishers are well known to occur there.

If, however, I had reported an ocelot, I would expect (hope!) that the DIFW file my uncorroborated anecdote in the loony bin, despite the fact that I know what an ocelot looks like. This is because the claim is of something so unusual that it's more likely that I - world's foremost ocelot expert that I am - was simply mistaken.

*Over the past 24 hrs, I have been engaged in a protracted discussion with our state bird records committee chair of the merits of a bird I claim to have seen. I know the species quite well, but my sighting is about a week late for a migratory species like this one. His day job? He's a mortician.
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That's just a cosmic coincidence:). Seriously? He's a mortician? Now why can a bird not be one week late migrating considering the weather changes we've had in the last 10-20 years?
 
I generalized a bit. Technically, he teaches anatomy and embalming to aspiring morticians.

Why won't he just accept my claim? Well, the fact is that we actually know a helluva lot about a lot of species, and something as trivial as "one week later than expected" really is unexpected, and it demands extra scrutiny. His job is to decide to include my anecdotal claim in a database intended to last for, potentially, ever. With a specimen or at least a diagnostic photo, all he has to go on is my anecdotal claim.
 
Northern Lights said:
Okay, let's play out this scenario. You have reported the ocelot to the DIFW which is summarily disregarded, not making it into any official database.
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It wouldn't be a big deal, but I'll bet it wouldn't be ignored either. "I saw an ocelot" is a credible report. Ocelots are real.
 
The Shrike said:
Why won't he just accept my claim? Well, the fact is that we actually know a helluva lot about a lot of species, and something as trivial as "one week later than expected" really is unexpected, and it demands extra scrutiny.
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That is absolutely extraordinary to me. I had no idea that migration was so well understood that one week falls out of bounds, so to speak.
 
It's a little known fact that the sooper-secrit Maine Ocelot stocking program seemed to fail every winter.
 
John Nowak said:
That is absolutely extraordinary to me. I had no idea that migration was so well understood that one week falls out of bounds, so to speak.
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For most migratory bird species in North America, we have enough information to predict when they will be where. Picture a normal curve of date on the X-axis and number of individuals on the Y-axis. Some individuals will come pre-peak, most will come around the peak, and some will come post-peak. In this case, I reported something ~ 2 standard deviations later than the peak, so I'm way out on that right tail along the X-axis. Last week would've been more on the cusp between 1 and 2 standard deviations later than the peak and seeing this species then would have been less unusual than it is now.

*Note - I haven't actually analyzed descriptive stats on this, I'm using a statistically analogy to explain the rarity of what I reported. It's unusual enough that it gave the records guy pause without anything to corroborate my claim.
 
The Shrike said:
I generalized a bit. Technically, he teaches anatomy and embalming to aspiring morticians.

Why won't he just accept my claim? Well, the fact is that we actually know a helluva lot about a lot of species, and something as trivial as "one week later than expected" really is unexpected, and it demands extra scrutiny. His job is to decide to include my anecdotal claim in a database intended to last for, potentially, ever. With a specimen or at least a diagnostic photo, all he has to go on is my anecdotal claim.
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I think he ought to include it in case these kinds of sightings increase over the next few years. It might be an anomaly now, but who is to say it's not the beginning of some sort of change either in the environment or with the species itself. It might be important to trace that back to the first sighting.

I don't know why I find it funny but the thought of a rogue ocelot on the loose makes me smile.
 
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A few years ago, I was getting out of my car late on a winter evening when I heard a commotion over my head. There was very large white and gray barred bird on the lines overhead. We have red tail hawks in our city, but it certainly did not look like one of those or an osprey, especially when I saw it turn to look at me ( or at the sound of me calling my family to come out and see) and the body didn't turn with the head . A snowy owl!.
It then flew into nearby bushes, came out with a sparrow and flew off with the sparrow still struggling against the larger bird. So was it a snowy owl? I thought so, but looked up to see if they were typically in our area. They were usually seen off the coast but had been seen in more frequently in our immediate area that winter after some major storms had blown through.
It could have been a snowy owl based on physical description and range, but do snowy owls hunt sparrows or small birds? It turns out that they do hunt small birds as well as small mammals.

Was it as snowy owl? Probably. It turned its head like an owl ,it was big and white with gray bars like a snowy owl, it was within a possible range for the animal, it was catching prey that it typically hunts, but I had never seen this type of owl other than in Harry Potter movies or National Geographic and the whole experience lasted maybe 20-30 seconds. But still, I am not sure.
 
I've been swooped by a barred owl, you haven't known fear until a massive ball of feathers flies in your face. I have no doubt it was a barred owl.
 
No, it was an owl. I went out to smoke on my front porch and as soon as I stepped down onto the sidewalk, BAM, there it was in my face swerving at the last minute. It must have seen a frog, snake, rodent, or something like that and I got in the way.
 
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The Shrike said:
*Note - I haven't actually analyzed descriptive stats on this, I'm using a statistically analogy to explain the rarity of what I reported. It's unusual enough that it gave the records guy pause without anything to corroborate my claim.
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Yeah, I get the concept - I'm just impressed that one week is enough time to be two standard deviations.
 
^Natural selection is pretty good at determining how species look, but also what they do.

Arrival dates for spring migrants are even more predictable.
 
chuff8xt said:
Was it as snowy owl? Probably. It turned its head like an owl ,it was big and white with gray bars like a snowy owl, it was within a possible range for the animal, it was catching prey that it typically hunts, but I had never seen this type of owl other than in Harry Potter movies or National Geographic and the whole experience lasted maybe 20-30 seconds. But still, I am not sure.
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The Snowy Owls are in the midst of a huge irruption.

They have been sighted in places they rarely occur.

http://www.projectsnowstorm.org/what-is-an-irruption/
 
Drewbot said:
The Snowy Owls are in the midst of a huge irruption.
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Well they WERE in 2013-14 and to a lesser degree in 2014-15. In both cases though, they pretty much have vacated the entire Lower 48 by the end of March. Irruptions are still seasonal events. We'll see how 2015-16 shapes up, but we're already getting reports that it might be a good year for Pine Siskins and Red-breasted Nuthatches in the Lower 48 - same principle, different mechanism.
 
Jodie said:
I think he ought to include it in case these kinds of sightings increase over the next few years. It might be an anomaly now, but who is to say it's not the beginning of some sort of change either in the environment or with the species itself. It might be important to trace that back to the first sighting.
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If it's a important change, however, then it won't be one errant individual lagging behind. There will be lots of them to be seen and lots of photos to prove that they were. This, of course, has been documented many times over in wild birds, especially in Europe where their record-keeping for many species is superior.
 
The Shrike said:
Well they WERE in 2013-14 and to a lesser degree in 2014-15. In both cases though, they pretty much have vacated the entire Lower 48 by the end of March. Irruptions are still seasonal events. We'll see how 2015-16 shapes up, but we're already getting reports that it might be a good year for Pine Siskins and Red-breasted Nuthatches in the Lower 48 - same principle, different mechanism.
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We have had huge irruptions here in Michigan since at least 2011

Hundreds of birds
 
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