Merged SCotUS nominee - Neil Gorsuch

[Cain]

Why?

Because it's another bone to the base?

I predict it will energize Progressives. If Trump wasn't so ignorant, he would have noticed that the pro-life, anti-gay crowd is dwindling every year. He didn't win the majority, his ratings are low, (they'll go lower now), yet he still thinks he's Dear Leader. But he's not and the majority in this country are not going to sit still.

Nevertheless, it's a solid move politically. Suppose Trump nominated a moderate. Would progressives support him in the next election? Would they no longer be "energized"? While the anti-gay crowd is dwindling, I don't think that's true for pro-lifers (it's a remarkably resilient movement). Besides, the demographics aren't going to change that much in four years. What sucks is that Gorsuch will likely serve for decades on the court while America becomes more socially liberal. It's also insane that Republican obstructionism on Obama's nominee actually panned out.

 

[sunmaster14]

Good question, don't know.

As the rest of the justices seem to be in decent health, I don't think there'll be another appointment (absent serious medical emergency) for at least a year. We'll see how this goes.

Ginsburg is not in decent health. She's already survived colon cancer and pancreatic cancer (the good kind!), and she's almost 84. The probability she survives until 2020 is not good. In fact, according to the Social Security Actuarial Life Table, an 84 year old woman only has a 60% chance of surviving 4 more years. And Ginsburg is probably well below average, with a grueling job.

 

[sunmaster14]

Like the Republicans accepted we had Obama at the end of January 2009?

Yes, that would be nice.

 

[Cain]

Good question, don't know.

As the rest of the justices seem to be in decent health, I don't think there'll be another appointment (absent serious medical emergency) for at least a year. We'll see how this goes.

Ginsburg looks like she's on the verge of death. Breyer and Kennedy are both over 75. This is bad. All kinds of bad. Not to mention all of the federal judges Trump'll appoint.

 

[sunmaster14]

I don't know if it's been remarked upon yet, but Gorsuch was in the same law school class as Obama.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Like the Republicans accepted we had Obama at the end of January 2009?

Or 2014-15 when Obama nominated a SCOTUS Justice.

 

[sunmaster14]

Or 2014-15 when Obama nominated a SCOTUS Justice.

Huh?

 

[Darth Rotor]

Ginsburg looks like she's on the verge of death. Breyer and Kennedy are both over 75. This is bad. All kinds of bad. Not to mention all of the federal judges Trump'll appoint.

To you and sunmaster, I was not aware of Ginsberg's medical things, I was under the impression that she was one of those people who keep on going for years and years. I've met a few old ladies in that past few years who, at 89-90, are still sharp and have surprising energy. Thanks for the correction on that.

As to the other two, my dad is 88 and still compus mentus. With health care that is available to people in that SC justices' financial means, I expect that they'll be able as long as they are willing. Justice O'Connor retired, maybe one day you just wake up and decide "OK, it's not worth it anymore."

 

[Wayward son]

Nothing keeping some old Republicans from retiring while they are sure of being replaced by more republicans. Add the possibility of an old Dem getting dead, and we'll have the Young Republicans running the place-all three divisions!

The swing vote, Kennedy is 80 and Dems Ginsburg and Breyer are 83 and 78. Any one of them being replaced shifts the court from being slight right to being far right. I predict that Trump will replace all 3 of them either due to death or stepping down due to health considerations. Otherwise, Thomas is the oldest at 68, so I don't see him retiring. Especially as the possibility is there for the court to shift far to the right, justices like Thomas are going to want to be there to be a part of that.

 

[Meadmaker]

One thought occurred to me. A lot of recent appointments have been sort of low key judges or lawyers without a lot of track record. The thought among watchers was that there wasn't much of a paper trail to attack.

This guy has quite a paper trail. He wrote one of the most contentious opinions of the last decade. Also, his name was floated months ago, giving lots of time for opposition research. Finally, he's not a compromise candidate.

I think Trump's throwing down the gauntlet and daring the Democrats to attack. I suppose we'll see how he handles the hearings.

 

[TragicMonkey]

I don't understand, it's not the current president's job to nominate anyone to the SC, that's the job of the next president. Because democracy or something.

 

[Dumb All Over]

I do not agree with your false dichotomy in this case. SCOTUS positions are decades long so that's another serious issue that isn't neutralized because Progressives are energized.

Therefore, it doesn't make a bit of difference how much this choice does or does not energize the base because of the length of time he will sit on the bench. Do I have that right?

 

[pgwenthold]

What are the odds that this guy will have been to plagiarize something?

I mean, it seems that a lot of Trump's people have done that at some point

 

[Wayward son]

an 84 year old woman only has a 60% chance of surviving 4 more years. And Ginsburg is probably well below average, with a grueling job.

I disagree. Ginsburg is probably well above average as she is active, with a job that keeps her mind active, extremely well educated, and financially very well off (probably about $15 million) - all of which bode well for her longevity. Supreme court justices live significantly longer than average - Holmes stayed on the court into his 90s, and I doubt he is the only one. I like her chances of remaining on the court for 4 years. I think her chances of lasting on the court for 8 years are slim.

Beyond the Supreme Court, the average age (70s) of the other federal justices is even older (with many in their 80s and 90s), plus there are several long-standing vacancies as the Republicans have preferred those positions stay empty....until now. So Trump will get to stack those courts as well.

 

[Dumb All Over]

Nothing keeping some old Republicans from retiring while they are sure of being replaced by more republicans. Add the possibility of an old Dem getting dead, and we'll have the Young Republicans running the place-all three divisions!

It would be in the best interest of Conservatives and Republicans to do everything in their power to persuade Justice Kennedy to resign sooner rather than later. Otherwise, they face the same problem Progressives and Democrats are facing with Ginsburg. From the perspective of the left, it would have been better if she had resigned a few years ago. After all, at the end of Trump's presidency, she will be ninety-one years old.

 

[Wayward son]

Energized or not, you (and Trump) forget they are the minority.

I have never forgot that they are a minority - a minority that I am not part of as someone on the left. Despite knowing that very well, almost a year ago, on this forum I predicted 100% that Trump would win the presidency - because my side has been, and will continue to be, a dumpster fire that eats its own every chance it gets, and failed to understand the rise of the populist right. In 2020 Trump will win easily without campaigning very hard, along the lines of the recent "The Atlantic" piece "How to Build an Autocracy".

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Nevertheless, it's a solid move politically. Suppose Trump nominated a moderate. Would progressives support him in the next election? Would they no longer be "energized"? While the anti-gay crowd is dwindling, I don't think that's true for pro-lifers (it's a remarkably resilient movement). Besides, the demographics aren't going to change that much in four years. What sucks is that Gorsuch will likely serve for decades on the court while America becomes more socially liberal. It's also insane that Republican obstructionism on Obama's nominee actually panned out.

You might have a point there. All Trump can ever expect to have is the base. However, not pissing everyone else off could be to his benefit.

 

[Wayward son]

It would be in the best interest of Conservatives and Republicans to do everything in their power to persuade Justice Kennedy to resign sooner rather than later. Otherwise, they face the same problem Progressives and Democrats are facing with Ginsburg.

It would be, but I don't imagine they would convince him. Kennedy will resign when he wants to. He is pretty independent. He is also in excellent health for his age and very busy outside of the court.

From the perspective of the left, it would have been better if she had resigned a few years ago. After all, at the end of Trump's presidency, she will be ninety-one years old.

Ginsburg was asked in 2013 why she was not resigning when she could be replaced at a time when democrats had solid control. She said she had zero interest in resigning before she was ready (and she was, and is, far from ready). She said that she wasn't worried about a Republican replacing her as she was confident that if a Republican won the presidency that Republican would be a good person. She was about as wrong as someone could be on that last point.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Therefore, it doesn't make a bit of difference how much this choice does or does not energize the base because of the length of time he will sit on the bench. Do I have that right?

No, because Trump only cares about Trump. He doesn't give a rip about SCOTUS decisions unless they affect his businesses. He doesn't need to energize his base (though I suppose from his POV adoring crowds are a goal in themselves). He needs to not lose so much support that millions come out into the street too many times. He didn't much like that reality.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Judicial activism is nothing except what's in the eye of the beholder. Scalia rationalized his decisions that weren't consistent just like all the other mere mortals.

I'm probably the only originalist out there (loving v Virginia decided incorrectly, obergefell v Hodges decided correctly).