Split Thread Scottish Independence

[Aitch]

Actually, I didn't say I was complaining. I said there would be a lot of complaining. I think FdeF has outlined who that will be.

Well, as PG Wodehouse said, "It is never difficult to distinguish between a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine."

 

[mummymonkey]

If there's one thing the English and Scots have in common it's a love of moaning. Stop moaning about our moaning.

 

[Rolfe]

I don't want to derail the thread on the new coalition with this point, and in fact it's a continuation of a topic which occurred several pages back in this thread.

You [D'rok] suggested that we'd get on better if we abandoned support for independence in favour of supporting a federal settlement. I said that it was a poor bargaining strategy to enter negotiations by putting forward the very minimum one might accept as one's starting position. At present, everything the SNP has gained has been by way of concessions to try to buy off the continuing call for independence. Seems to be working quite well to me. [....]

Nevertheless, it is perfectly possible, indeed likely, that the route to independence will be by way of a much more federalised settlement.

To repeat, Scotland has achieved a great deal and made significant advances along the road to self-determination, coming from a position of desiring full independence. I fail to see how this could have been bettered, or could be bettered at present, by declaring that federation was or is the ultimate goal. I'd hardly describe the institution of a devolved Scottish parliament in 1999 as "gridlock", by anybody's standards. Especially adding to that the first-ever SNP government coming in 2007.

An important point to bear in mind is that federalism has to be achieved as a multilateral settlement. No one region can demand federated status. Scotland can, however, achieve independence unilaterally. Like it or not, this is the practical position. If the SNP's posiiton was that we would never contemplate a complete dissolution of the union, but please grant us federated status, how far do you think we'd get?

In contrast, the appreciation of the fact that Scotland can declare independence has concentrated unionist minds quite wonderfully to figure out how to stop this. Some of that has taken the form of lies and scaremongering. But on the other hand some of that has taken the form of a devolved parliament. How gridlocked is that?

It was announced this morning that one of the concessions given to the LibDems was that the Calman Report is to be implemented in full - perhaps more than "in full", as the radio news spoke of "Calman Plus". The LibDems have always been a federalist party, so perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised about that, though indeed they've not been pushing the point much recently.

The coalition deal struck between Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats has several implications for Scotland, including a commitment to implement the recommendations of the Calman Commission review of devolution to give Holyrood far greater tax varying powers.

There will also be a commission on a possible English Assembly and to look at the West Lothian question - whether it is right for Scottish MPs to vote on policies which affect other parts of the UK.

This is of course not independence, but it is likely to be a significant step on the road, with a more federalised arrangement being a staging-post.

So how did Calman come to be? The SNP set up something called the "national conversation" about independence, seeking views from individuals and interested groups across the nation. The unionist parties largely boycotted it, and indeed derided it. Instead, they instituted the Calman Commission, as a direct rival. This was widely criticised for exclusivity, for denying input from the public, and in particular from any individual or group favouring independence, and for excluding any consideration of independence as an option.

It's perfectly clear that this commissions would never have been established if it had not been for the "national conversation". It was quite specifically and explicitly a reaction to that, to try to take the wind out of the SNP's sails. Nevertheless, it reached conclusions and made recoomendations that the powers of the Scottish parliament should be significantly strengthened, moving towards a more federated settlement.

We are now being told that the Calman Report is to be implemented. Do we really think the commission would even have existed if the SNP hadn't been campaigning for independence?

If you demand a mile, you may get half a mile. If you request half a mile, good luck to you.

Rolfe.

 

[zooterkin]

We are now being told that the Calman Report is to be implemented. Do we really think the commission would even have existed if the SNP hadn't been campaigning for independence?

If you demand a mile, you may get half a mile. If you request half a mile, good luck to you.

So... does that mean that asking for independence is just a negotiating position?

 

[Rolfe]

Maybe it is, for some. It's more complex than that, though.

In the 1990s, there was huge debate within the SNP about the relative merits of gradualism and fundamentalism. Fundamentalism being the position that we don't want no steenkin "wee pretendy parliament", we're going to sulk in the corner until we can declare UDI. The general consensus came together as, we'll take anything we can get and use that as a basis to campaign for more.

Iin the middle of that debate, I asked Alex Salmond if he wasn't worried that a devolved parliament would stall the progress to independence - that people would feel that was enough, and just sit back. This is what seems to have happened in Catalonia, and that was the example I gave. Alex said to me that we were nothing if we weren't democrats, and that if an interim settlement was reached that satisfied "the settled will of the people", then so be it.

It may even be that some who at present see independence as their genuine goal, might find that they were content with a favourable federal solution. People's opinions and outlooks do change. In my view the size disparities of the countries comprising the UK makes a genuinely fair and stable federal solution difficult, but we don't know till we get it.

Rolfe.

 

[funk de fino]

There is a possbility of a pushback against the Libs in the next Scottish election. Labour could be seen as powerless against the coalition and support could move towards the SNP. Or Labour could get even stronger.

The poisoned chalice of Mr Cameron as PM.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

There is a possbility of a pushback against the Libs in the next Scottish election. Labour could be seen as powerless against the coalition and support could move towards the SNP. Or Labour could get even stronger.

The poisoned chalice of Mr Cameron as PM.

The weird situation Scotland finds itself in though is that until we get full independence the more we vote SNP the more we will get shafted by Westminister.

If there is an SNP govt in Holyrood and a Unionist government in Westminister there is significant political capital in making sure the Scottish economy suffers.

 

[funk de fino]

The weird situation Scotland finds itself in though is that until we get full independence the more we vote SNP the more we will get shafted by Westminister.

If there is an SNP govt in Holyrood and a Unionist government in Westminister there is significant political capital in making sure the Scottish economy suffers.

Definitely, but the more they push us and cut us the greater the support for the SNP should become. It may not be the best of times but it may lead to what a lot of us have been looking for.

 

[Rolfe]

Definitely, but the more they push us and cut us the greater the support for the SNP should become. It may not be the best of times but it may lead to what a lot of us have been looking for.

In a rational world, maybe. I no longer think this is rational. If the Westminster parties keep telling the Scots that the country can't look after itself and will be bankrupt, people may go on believing this. Even with the awful warning of the 1970s and McCrone staring at us. Even with all the successful independent nations around the world as examples. (Even Iceland will probably recover before Britain, and I don't see that country petitioning to be reunited with Denmark - itself only the size of Scotland - any time soon.)

If the penny ever drops about the resources Scotland has, we'll just be back to "Oh, how could you be so selfish as to want to take your wealth away from your poor English cousins," which we also had in the 1970s. Some voters might even agree.

It's really a constant diet of "cling tightly on to nurse, for fear of finding something worse." "Oh, we're too wee and too poor and too stupid. We couldnae make it on oor ain."

Sorry, in a bad mood today.

Rolfe.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

In a rational world, maybe. I no longer think this is rational. If the Westminster parties keep telling the Scots that the country can't look after itself and will be bankrupt, people may go on believing this. Even with the awful warning of the 1970s and McCrone staring at us. Even with all the successful independent nations around the world as examples. (Even Iceland will probably recover before Britain, and I don't see that country petitioning to be reunited with Denmark - itself only the size of Scotland - any time soon.)

If the penny ever drops about the resources Scotland has, we'll just be back to "Oh, how could you be so selfish as to want to take your wealth away from your poor English cousins," which we also had in the 1970s. Some voters might even agree.

It's really a constant diet of "cling tightly on to nurse, for fear of finding something worse." "Oh, we're too wee and too poor and too stupid. We couldnae make it on oor ain."

Sorry, in a bad mood today.

Rolfe.

I think that if Scotland was to become independent you expect that we would 1) be shafted on the separation agreement and 2) face quite a long period of economic uncertainty/tough times before we came out of it at the other end.

I'm not sure the people of Scotland have the stomach or the resources to go through an extended period of getting the brown end of the stick, then trying to get the country up and running independently before getting back to normality/prosperity.

I certainly don't think its just as simple as saying 'Denmark does it' and suddenly we have an economy like Denmark. It's achievable but I still have my doubts that the people we have in charge could achieve it or that we wouldn't get stuffed by a separation agreement that left us needing snookers from the start.

 

[Rolfe]

I think we have to do it for the long-term future. I don't believe that we're the only country in the world that doesn't have people with political talent to run a country. And I don't think being shafted in a separation agreement is inevitable by any means.

The longer this drags on, the more we just wish we'd done it sooner. We should have done it in the 1970s. We need to do it to secure the future now, because we can't turn the clock back, and in another 30 years we'll just be wishing we could.

Rolfe.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

I think we have to do it for the long-term future. I don't believe that we're the only country in the world that doesn't have people with political talent to run a country. And I don't think being shafted in a separation agreement is inevitable by any means.

The longer this drags on, the more we just wish we'd done it sooner. We should have done it in the 1970s. We need to do it to secure the future now, because we can't turn the clock back, and in another 30 years we'll just be wishing we could.

Rolfe.

Oh we probably have people who can RUN a country. I'm just not sure we have people who can SET UP a country.

Regardless of whether getting shafted is inevitable I think we need to assume it as possible scenario and put together a plan to get from shafted to success. If independence is predicated on getting a good deal or even a fair one from the separation then we're taking a big risk.

Its a bloody complicated divorce as it is, even if both parties came to it in good faith it would be a huge job. In the current economic climate its even more huge. There's also a genuine concern that if we do anything to disadvantage people or business in Scotland (even as an interim step) they'll all bugger off to England.

 

[Rolfe]

Oh, I think naivete would be a bit silly. However, there is also the possibility of attracting business to Scotland. That potential is one of the main arguments in favour of independence.

Rolfe.