Scientific Research on Crop Circles

[gs21stc]

This does not rule out the possibility of non-human-created crop circles, but it's sufficient for most reasonable people to dismiss the idea, simply because it is more probable that humans created them than that they were created by previously-unknown physical phenomena for which there is no evidence.

I have studied the "evidence" as presented in the OP, and am grateful to those people who have helped me evaluate them.

I conclude that it is possible that the anomalies reported can be caused by other factors, instead of some mysterious unknown phenomena.

 

[arthwollipot]

Huh. My impression was that there were actually no anomalies, only things that some people didn't know how to explain

 

[gs21stc]

Sorry, I must have missed that. When did anyone claim that it was "conclusively proven" that all crop circles are human-created?

They didn't say it, but the tone of posts #62, #76 and #124 certainly feels like they are making that claim to me. If I've misunderstood them, I apologise.

 

[gs21stc]

I have encountered yet another possibility in this forum, the sunlight hypothesis. I suggest the person who proposed this theory to construct a formal quantitative model with sound predictive power to explain Levengood's data if possible.

I just did that in post#129! Too bad there isn't enough data to test the validity of my equation.

 

[steenkh]

They certainly did measurements on known man-made circles. No anomalies were found in those circles.

Of course they did not find anomalies when they expected not to find any! They should look for anomalies without knowing if the circles were known to be man-made, and only afterwards would it be revealed if they were known to be man-made.

 

[arthwollipot]

They didn't say it, but the tone of posts #62 and #124 certainly feels like they are making that claim to me. If I've misunderstood them, I apologise.

Well, first there was:

As far as I'm concerned ALL circles are manmade, there is sufficient evidence for that conclusion.

This is essentially the same as what I said:

So on the assumption that the evidence does not exist that these circles were created by something non-human, why is there any reason to accept the hypothesis? Especially when the hypothesis involves previously-unknown physical phenomena? This is a classic case for Occam's razor and the most parsimonious explanation, which is that humans created them.

And secondly there's:

I think the fact that we know what causes crop circles (humans) against Levendick's hypothesis is the biggest clue. Even the merest whiff of Occam's Razor says that Leven is past his use-by date.

Well, that's TA for you. He can be a little direct. Neither EHocking or The Atheist were saying that it's conclusively proven that humans created all crop circles. All they were saying was that the evidence and Occam's razor suggest that all crop circles are human-created. And that's what I'm saying too.

 

[gs21stc]

Of course they did not find anomalies when they expected not to find any! They should look for anomalies without knowing if the circles were known to be man-made, and only afterwards would it be revealed if they were known to be man-made.

I think you mean blinding. They made the measurements before the identity of the samples were made known. Please read the first link in the OP.

The "anomalies" observed can be explained without invoking a mysterious phenomena. Why don't you explore this thread a bit?

 

[steenkh]

I think you mean blinding. They made the measurements before the identity of the samples were made known. Please read the first link in the OP.

You are right. I retract that part. I was put off by Levengood's acceptance that the complex "Mandelbrot" formation was not man-made.

So, what are the explanations that crop circles hardly existed before humans started producing their own? And why are crop circles so common in Europe and the U.S. but uncommon in other countries? Why are crop circles in Europe almost exclusively found in England? Denmark is a farming country, but crop circles have rarely been found, and I think most if not all have been admitted by the creators to be man-made.

 

[CFLarsen]

About Danish crop circles:

Crop Circles?
... or just Crap Circles?

 

[gs21stc]

You are right. I retract that part. I was put off by Levengood's acceptance that the complex "Mandelbrot" formation was not man-made.

So, what are the explanations that crop circles hardly existed before humans started producing their own? And why are crop circles so common in Europe and the U.S. but uncommon in other countries? Why are crop circles in Europe almost exclusively found in England? Denmark is a farming country, but crop circles have rarely been found, and I think most if not all have been admitted by the creators to be man-made.

That shows that a natural explanation of the crop circles is unlikely. This indicates that an intelligence is involved.

Alien or not? Your choice.

 

[CFLarsen]

That shows that a natural explanation of the crop circles is unlikely. This indicates that an intelligence is involved.

Alien or not? Your choice.

It's not a choice between two equally valid explanations.

 

[EHocking]

You are misunderstanding me. I did not say you made that claim. I am just saying that some random crop circle supporter can make that claim and you wouldn't be able to counter it with your evidence.

Firstly, it is not my evidence, but my analysis of the evidence croppies have presented.

Secondly, no support makes the claim that you are hypothesising. The evidence from them differentiates between what they consider to be hoaxes and what they consider to be real crop circles. THEIR evidence does not support you conjecture, so the discussion is pointless and merely obfuscates (if that is a proper use of the word) the issue.

 

[EHocking]

That means that the FMD evidence cannot prove conclusively that all the 'real' crop circles created in 2001 requires the rights of way to be open to the public.

Incorrect.

The facts are that cropcircles WERE created in 2001 in counties where FMD restrictions did not apply. First one was in Somerset done by an artist (the one I erroneously stated was in Hampshire).

In each of the counties where FMD restrictions DID apply, crop circles emerged the very next day after the restrictions were lifted. NOt only were they created the very next day, but for each of those counties the appearance of the crop circles were significantly late - May not April.

The counties I've discussed previously were Wiltshire and Hampshire, as they are the "hot" counties for circles and had good gov info on RoW closures during 2001.

I have to admit to an error when I stated that Hampshire had no restrictions - it had no cases of FMD.
Restrictions were in place and you were correct when you said they were lifted on the 15th May and that a circle was found in Hampshire 11th May.

But on going back over past posts to refresh my memory, this is what prompted me to "poo poo" the Hampshire circle.

It was created in an area outside of the FMD restrictions:
15th April RoW status
Note that the circle was on the field between Old Winchester Hill fort and
Meonvale Farm, bounded by two open bridleways and a minor (sealed) road.

There is evidence that humans can make crop circles, but there is no evidence that all crop circles are made by humans. You can extrapolate the man-made hypothesis to all crop circles since we do not know of any other way that crop circles can be made. However, you have to realise that this is only an assumption, not proof.

I agree in part.

There IS evidence that humans make crop circles.
I have yet to see evidence for crop circles that cannot be made by humans.

It is my current opinion, after analysing a multitude of poor evidence, poorly presented and sometimes invented, that there is no good evidence that crop circles are being created by anyone other than humans. This is my swipe of the Razor that Arthwollipot noted in his later post.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

It's a nice quote that one, isn't it?
In this case it does not apply as proponents supply huge amounts of "evidence" for the non-human creation of cropcircles. At best it borders on pseudoscience or lack of understanding of science and at worst it's presentation is pure misrepresentation and invention.

You cannot use that to justify the robustness of the FMD evidence. The only way to elevate the strength of this evidence is for the rights of way to be closed longer, at least until the end of the year. If you cannot see this, there is nothing I can do.

And as I point out, since this is NEVER going to happen, it is pointless discussing that line of testing the evidence.

What I have done is analyse the evidence we do have and that is that,

Going back to 1992, the average date of the first created cropcircle in the UK is 25th April.

In 2001 the first "real" circle was created the latest of all these years - *27* days late. The only other years later than this average is 1993
(3 days) and 1996 (17 days). With a standard deviation of 13 over the
10 years, only 2 years stand out. 1996 and 2001.

Each of the first 3 "real" ones in 2001 were created THE DAY AFTER FMD restrictions were lifted in those counties or where restrictions were not in place.


An aside, I have not idea investigated the other coincidence that in March 1996 the BSE epidemic came to a head and that mass slaughters took place in the UK.

 

[Cuddles]

The facts are that cropcircles WERE created in 2001 in counties where FMD restrictions did not apply. First one was in Somerset done by an artist (the one I erroneously stated was in Hampshire).

The only slight problem I have with this line of the discussion is that it is unfalsifiable. While the fact that circles only appeared where there were no restrictions strongly suggests humans, if circles were created while there were restrictions it would say nothing at all about whether humans were involved. The sort of person who illegally tramples crops in the middle of the night is not particularly likely to obey instructions not to travel to fields.

 

[EHocking]

The only slight problem I have with this line of the discussion is that it is unfalsifiable. While the fact that circles only appeared where there were no restrictions strongly suggests humans, if circles were created while there were restrictions it would say nothing at all about whether humans were involved.

Technically and logically I agree with your argument.

My position is more of a counter argument to croppies who claim that FMD had not effect on the the cropcircle "season" for 2001, usually poorly rationalised as per this page at cropcircleresearch.com. This site is also my source for cropcircle data, unsurprisingly.

The argument being that on average of circles found, that May 2001 was unremarkable. They completely ignore the timing of the first circles found and also include what they regard as "hoaxes". My argument is merely a counter to their poor rationalisation.

I think I do a better job of the data analysis than that site does, but I agree it is not a conclusive argument, more an inference.

The sort of person who illegally tramples crops in the middle of the night is not particularly likely to obey instructions not to travel to fields.

As a great many of the crop circle makers are known, as is their backgrounds, you can infer that to some degree they are law abiding in the sense that they are sensitive to the community in which they live.

Trampling a bit of wheat is, while vandalism for sure, is in a different league to potentially spreading FMD. Sure, that working conclusion cannot be proven without interviewing the circle makers, but it can be inferred from their past behaviour and interviews.

 

[balrog666]

How can this be anything but natural?

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

[qimg]http://www.gamesetwatch.com/pacfield.jpg[/qimg]
How can this be anything but natural?

So howcome my cell (aka mobile) phone does not work when I'm in the centre of the PACMAN? Answer that if you can!

 

[gs21stc]

My position is more of a counter argument to croppies who claim that FMD had not effect on the the cropcircle "season" for 2001, usually poorly rationalised as per this page at cropcircleresearch.com. This site is also my source for cropcircle data, unsurprisingly.

The FMD restrictions is definitely a valid explanation for why the crop circle season was late in 2001. I thought you were claiming something else, sorry.

 

[gs21stc]

In this case it does not apply as proponents supply huge amounts of "evidence" for the non-human creation of cropcircles. At best it borders on pseudoscience or lack of understanding of science and at worst it's presentation is pure misrepresentation and invention.

You seems to be very experienced in this area. I wonder if you can tell me about the claim by the croppies that canola cannot be bent for more than 45 degrees. Then they go on and say that crop circles are often found in canola, where the plants were bent at 90 degrees. The claim goes on by saying that even botanists can't explain it.

I am guessing this might be an "invention" ?

 

[arthwollipot]

That shows that a natural explanation of the crop circles is unlikely. This indicates that an intelligence is involved.

Alien or not? Your choice.

Let's look at the alternatives. There is no evidence that aliens have ever visited earth. There is evidence that humans create crop circles with boards and rope.

No contest, really.