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Russian Ambassador shot in Turkey

Russia and Turkey are competing for influence in the void create by a weakening ISIS and Assad regime. This assassination can be used to pressure Ankarato yield more territorial influence to Moscow. And if not, Russia is free to "accidentally" bomb Turkey forces in the region without fear of NATO since they are outside of Turkish borders.
 
theprestige said:
Aside from the fact that he was recorded invoking the Islamic deity, and making common cause with the anti-Assad revolutionaries in Iraq, you mean.

It may turn out to be an inaccurate characterization, but it seems pretty well evidenced to me.

What's your theory? He said all that ironically? He wasn't a terrorist, he was a hipster?
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I wouldn't call being anti-Assad Islamic terrorism. Nor are all crimes committed by Muslims Islamic terrorism.
 
Shiner said:
So does anyone have a rational, or logical reason why this might lead to military action by Russia against Turkey? This appears to be the action of a rogue pro-Syrian terrorist. Why would Putin take it as an act of war by Turkey?

<snip>
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Why would Austria -Hungary declare war on Serbia just because some rogue Bosnian separatist teenager shot the the Archduke Ferdinand?

An act which precipitated a world war on the basis of mutual defense treaties.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Russia and Turkey are competing for influence in the void create by a weakening ISIS and Assad regime. This assassination can be used to pressure Ankarato yield more territorial influence to Moscow. And if not, Russia is free to "accidentally" bomb Turkey forces in the region without fear of NATO since they are outside of Turkish borders.
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And risk a Turkish escalation? Russian forces in Syria wouldn't last half a day against the Turkish military. They would inflict a few losses, but the Russian force would be wiped out in mere hours. Russia has few options to respond in kind.

If Putin has any strategic thinking capability whatsoever he will (ab)use this event to further his alliance with Turkey. I'd rate this as moderately likely.

McHrozni
 
quadraginta said:
Why would Austria -Hungary declare war on Serbia just because some rogue Bosnian separatist teenager shot the the Archduke Ferdinand?

An act which precipitated a world war on the basis of mutual defense treaties.
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We'll know soon enough when Russia demands that Turkey allows their investigators in, and essentially sign away its independence.

In other words, there was more to June/July 1914 than the assassination.

A-H had lots of reasons to declare war on Serbia (bad idea though that was), with lots of recent history to build off. Russia and Turkey haven't had a conflict for nigh on a century.
 
Tolls said:
We'll know soon enough when Russia demands that Turkey allows their investigators in, and essentially sign away its independence.

In other words, there was more to June/July 1914 than the assassination.

A-H had lots of reasons to declare war on Serbia (bad idea though that was), with lots of recent history to build off. Russia and Turkey haven't had a conflict for nigh on a century.
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Russia wouldn't win an all out war against Turkey.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Russia wouldn't win an all out war against Turkey.
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They might fancy their chances if they are confident that the US won't come to the support of their NATO ally and if they threaten to switch off gas supplies to Western Europe in the middle of winter so as to dissuade European NATO members.
 
The Don said:
They might fancy their chances if they are confident that the US won't come to the support of their NATO ally and if they threaten to switch off gas supplies to Western Europe in the middle of winter so as to dissuade European NATO members.
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They'd have to restart the war with Georgia first...not sure they'd appreciate the Russians marching through again.

Seriously, the Russians don't have the kit for it.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Russia wouldn't win an all out war against Turkey.
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Indeed. A lot of people seem to overestimate the Russian military's strength. Just take a look at the aircraft carrier it send to Syria recently: instead of being an actually useful addition to their bombing campaign it keeps crashing their own jet planes. Disgraceful.
 
The Don said:
They might fancy their chances if they are confident that the US won't come to the support of their NATO ally and if they threaten to switch off gas supplies to Western Europe in the middle of winter so as to dissuade European NATO members.
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No, not really, no. They have no naval capacity to speak of, so they're really left with two options:

a) invade from the west, through Ukraine and Bulgaria, the first has a large and somewhat capable army by now, the latter is a NATO ally who couldn't reasonably be complicit in this or
b) invade from the east, through Georgia, and into mountainous part of Turkey, with a very long trek to get anywhere worthwhile to conquer

Given the state of the Russian army, I suspect they'd be stopped in Ukraine and Georgia, respectively. The only way Russia could win a war against Turkey is if Turkey invaded Russia. The other way around there is just no way Russia could sustain it logistically or operationally. Their planes start falling from the sky if they're used a little more often than usual, I dread to think what we don't see.

McHrozni
 
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Mark6 said:
How important do you have to be for your murder to be called assassination?
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If you're so important that if you were crazy, people would call you eccentric. Then you are important enough to call your murder an assassination.
 
Babbylonian said:
I'm not looking to float any conspiracy theories, or even speculate about same, but I would still note that it would be a radical terrorist act as long as the assassination wasn't state-sponsored. Different descriptors would apply if it was.
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I'm going with grieving father.
 
Sideroxylon said:
Key word I ommited was Islamic. Islamic terrorist action is an unevidence characterization at this point.
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The gunman appears to have been Islamic; whether he was Islamist may be a more pertinent question (and a distinction probably lost on Trump).
 
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