Russia invades Georgia

[DC]

....



But the nations next to Russia do not want to be in its "sphere of influence"! They had endured it for longer or shorter periods and it got a lot of people killed.

but the peoples in SO seems to want to belong to russia. and if that really is what they want, nothing and nobody should hinder them to do so.

 

[egslim]

The way it looks to me is that Russia is indeed moving to dominate the Trans-Caucasus, and further I feel it's rather sad to find people arguing that "sphere of influence" is still a valid argument.

It is. What else do you call the over 700 military bases the US has in many countries, all over the world? One may not like the concept, but it's part of the political reality.

Does it apply to Russia and Ukraine? Or Russia and the Baltic states? Finland? (Which Russia ruled for over a century). Poland? (Much of it, likewise.) I doubt it; I don't look for Russian tanks in Helsinki, Vilnius, Warszawa, or even Kyiv anytime soon, for which I am profoundly grateful.

Like Texas, you mistakenly seem to equate spheres of influence with the presence of military power. Military power is one source of influence, but not the only one.

Deliberately pissing off a much stronger neighbour is stupid, unless you have strong ties to a comparably strong ally. Which is why for example Poland wants increased military support from the US in exchange for pissing off Russia by hosting the ballistic missile shield.

Finland, the Baltic states and Poland are members of the EU, so they are fairly protected against Russian domination. Though with their dependence on Russian energy they still need to respect Moscow's views.

There's nothing to celebrate here. Any blow to the US in this region is small time, because there could never be a realistic expectation of American power there anyhow. But whatever floats boats.

Celebrations? No. Amusement at foolish neocons predictably getting their heads handed to them diplomatically? Yes.

The violence, death and destruction? In much of the world that's basically part of human nature. The weaker side is considered "poor, innocent victims", but they usually show themselves as brutes as soon as they fight an even weaker opponent. Forgive me for not crying a river for them.

"Innocent" civilians getting hurt? Those are rare animals indeed. In many cases civilians support the fighting actively or passively in various ways - at least as long as its going well. If you support the fighting, then you're no longer an innocent. If your support ceases because your side is losing, don't expect much sympathy from me either.

How many of the Georgian civilians who are now crying for the loss of their loved ones or their homes would have cheered had the Georgian offensive succeeded? Consider that the latter would have implied similar losses on the part of the Ossetians.

 

[egslim]

But the nations next to Russia do not want to be in its "sphere of influence"! They had endured it for longer or shorter periods and it got a lot of people killed.

Then for many of them the first part of the solution is easy: They should end their dependence on Russian energy supplies. That would do much to move them outside Russia's sphere of influence.

The fact that they don't indicates they prefer to remain in Russia's sphere for the sake of convenience, meanwhile complaining about it.

Of course in the case of Ossetia Dictator Cheney is right to point out that they actually prefer Russia over Georgia.

 

[Wire]

Then for many of them the first part of the solution is easy: They should end their dependence on Russian energy supplies. That would do much to move them outside Russia's sphere of influence.

The fact that they don't indicates they prefer to remain in Russia's sphere for the sake of convenience, meanwhile complaining about it.

They do actually, as much as possible. Eg Baltics States are planning a new nuclear power station in Lithuania and linking their electrical network to Western countries instead of Russia etc. As for oil and gas, they are strongly opposing this proposed pipeline in the Baltic Sea which would allow Russia to cut them off without causing inconviniencies to the comfy Western Europe. How much of this works out remains to be seen.

Of course in the case of Ossetia Dictator Cheney is right to point out that they actually prefer Russia over Georgia.

Can't argue with that, but what would their preferences be if there had been real peacekeepers in the area instead of Russian troops?

 

[Big Les]

Thanks to all (Capeldodger especially) for a most informative thread. I knew I could count on this place for a reality check (insofar as it's possible).

 

[SDC]

I wouldn't call it "informative." I'd just say it had a whole lot of opinions and very few facts. "Informative," at least in my world, means actual information is at hand. Opinions are like... No, I won't say it. What's the phrase; aha: talk is cheap. Life is hard.

 

[egslim]

They do actually, as much as possible. Eg Baltics States are planning a new nuclear power station in Lithuania and linking their electrical network to Western countries instead of Russia etc. As for oil and gas, they are strongly opposing this proposed pipeline in the Baltic Sea which would allow Russia to cut them off without causing inconviniencies to the comfy Western Europe. How much of this works out remains to be seen.

It's a start, but they continue to depend on Russian oil and gas deliveries.

Can't argue with that, but what would their preferences be if there had been real peacekeepers in the area instead of Russian troops?

Probably the same. A foreign military presence does not necessarily endear said foreign country to the local population. Remember that South Ossetia already tried to break off from Georgia in the early nineties.

 

[moon1969]

Putin probaly started this war. Anyway Putin and Medvedev have very interesting friends. General Alexander Baranov from the Chechen war is a hero in Russia. Then there is three people Oleg Deripaska, Vladimir Potanin and Viktor Vekselberg all three are oligarchs and very good friends of Putin and Medvedev.

 

[hipparchia]

Long thread, did not read all of it, but here's my take on the war.

This morning, I opened Facebook and it was scary, since I have several friends in Georgia. They are alright, and hopefully remain so.

As the hours progressed, it became clearer that the Georgian president made a grave mistake which the Russians exploited to their own ends. Now Georgia won't see NATO, an uncomfortable pipeline is severed and Putin has shown that "beacon of freedom" does not count for much in terms of help.

Who fired the first shot, hard to tell. But Russia definitely profits from the conflict and as of now has used a disproportionate amount of power.

The war is widely disputed in Bulgaria, and the forums are abuzz with old feuds between the supporters of Russia and those who noticed that this country's foreign policy was bad for Bulgaria more often than it was good.

I am still tracking the events and making up my mind. But this whole "orchestrated by USA" seems pretty stupid...

 

[gumboot]

but the peoples in SO seems to want to belong to russia. and if that really is what they want, nothing and nobody should hinder them to do so.

They want to be independent.

 

[gumboot]

People are so hypocritical, it's hilarious. This incident is fantastic for highlighting the hypocrisy of practically everyone. It shows Russia to be a bunch of hypocrites (crushed the independence bid of Chechnya, actively aids the independence bid of SO). It shows the USA to be a bunch of hypocrites (all that rhetoric about "with us or against us" and "beacon of democracy" yet turn a blind eye when their ally is invaded). It shows Israel to be hypocrites (complain about countries like Iran meddling in Lebanon and Palestine, but they're involved in something well outside their relevant region). It shows supporters of the USA to be hypocrites (it's okay for the USA to flex its muscles, but Russia's evil). And it shows the anti-American crowd to be hypocrites (America's evil, but it's okay for Russia to flex it's muscles, and in fact that somehow proves the USA is evil). And meanwhile the bombs keep falling and the civilians keep dying.

I stand by my earlier assertion.

Humans suck.

 

[DC]

They want to be independent.

eerem yes indeed, duno why i wrote they wanted to belong to russia, prolly confused with theyr passport.

well and i think i also agree on your last post.
while i dont know what to think, who is the agressor who is helping, is someone helping someone?

 

[Wire]

It's a start, but they continue to depend on Russian oil and gas deliveries.

It's probably too costly to avoid it completely, but still it's preferable to be on the hook together with Germany and France than on our own.

Probably the same. A foreign military presence does not necessarily endear said foreign country to the local population. Remember that South Ossetia already tried to break off from Georgia in the early nineties.

Perhaps. The North-Eastern county of Estonia has population which consists of only 20% Estonians and the rest is so-called Russian-speaking community: Russians, Ukrainians, Belorussians etc (mostly Soviet-era immigrants from 50s to 80s). If you asked today how many of them wish to belong to the Russian Federation instead, the percentage would be quite low (in fact I believe it would be very low indeed except for pro-Moscow activists; no such questionnaire has been made but you can guess people's opinions from other polls). Now if you had Russian army administering the area for last 15 years, handing out Russian passports then the views of the people could be very different. Yes, there was no violence in Estonia, but an unofficial poll in 1990(?) allegedly showed that 60% of the county's population wished some kind of autonomy. So, I guess we where lucky getting rid of Russian army already in 1994.

 

[SDC]

Wire, you say that Estonia's population is only 20% Estonian (ethnically, one assumes). Could you provide a source for that figure? It is far, far lower than anything I've ever heard. I thought it was more like a modest Estonian majority; maybe 60-70%.

 

[CapelDodger]

eerem yes indeed, duno why i wrote they wanted to belong to russia, prolly confused with theyr passport.

Ossetia's too small to be a viable independent nation; what the ethnic Ossetians seem to favour is union with North Ossetia and autonomy within Russia. That would leave Russia in control of foregn affairs and the military but local affairs would be handled locally.

while i dont know what to think, who is the agressor who is helping, is someone helping someone?

You can bet your life that some people are helping themselves .

 

[CapelDodger]

In South Wales? Well,whatever floats your boat. Though I don't see any cause to celebrate Russian ascendancy, regardless of Georgian or US or European political stupidity.

The Russians don't worry us. The English are the local superpower in this neck of the woods, so we worry about them.

I don't celebrate much; think of me as Larry David in Curb Your Enthusiasm but without his upbeat chirpiness. A strong confident Russia is certainly preferrable to a weak nervous Russia, but that's as far as I'll go on that. I wish the EU was stronger and more confident as a counter-balance and complement, but that seems a hopeless cause at the moment.

 

[Wire]

Wire, you say that Estonia's population is only 20% Estonian (ethnically, one assumes). Could you provide a source for that figure? It is far, far lower than anything I've ever heard. I thought it was more like a modest Estonian majority; maybe 60-70%.

I was talking about Ida-Viru county, it has the most lopsided composition. The data is from here:
Population indicators and composition.

 

[Drewbot]

but the peoples in SO seems to want to belong to russia. and if that really is what they want, nothing and nobody should hinder them to do so.

Yeah, and everytime one of the United States wants to secede, the government just sits back and lets it happen.

 

[moon1969]

Putin and Medvedev have two more corrupt friends. Leonard Blavatnik and Mikhail Fridman are both oligarchs and very good friends of Putin and Medvedev.

 

[DC]

Yeah, and everytime one of the United States wants to secede, the government just sits back and lets it happen.

well if it is that what the peoples want, sure......... and you sure cannot force them.

or would you say China is doing well in Tibet?