Russia invades Georgia

[CapelDodger]

The "War Nerd" article is the article in eXile. I see the two Bismarckian armchair Realpolitiker have found each other .

That is terribly good. If tomorrow's weather is as crap as today's - which is very likely - I will explore eXile. It looks like my sort of place .

 

[Alex Libman]

The title of this thread is wrong. It should be "99% of South Ossetians want self-determination, Georgia says f@#$ you, you're our subjects whether you like it or not".

 

[geni]

Expensive for the residents, but they'll blame the Georgians (with good reason); not very expensive for the Russians (they're attacking Georgian communications to the T-place as we speak); but terribly expensive for the Georgians as they desperately reinforce failure up to the last minute. The Russians are letting them off lightly; they could have turned the South Ossetian capital into Georgia's Stalingrad, and the retreat from it up there with Napoleon's Retreat From Moscow. Or the Road to Basra. They're not going down that route because they want popular resentment to be directed elsewhere - by both sides.

Stalingrad was bad for the attackers. A couple of strongly nationalist Georgian units in Tamarasheni would have been a potential problem. Sure they could have repeatedly flatened the place with artillery but that isn't the war they want to fight. But Russia avoided that by getting to Tamarasheni before the Georgians could get a foothold.

The current Georgian regime will fall very soon,

Questionable. It is still quite popular. Soon is more likely to be weeks than days.

and US influence will vanish with it. Ordinary Georgians, with all the ordinary everyday concerns of food and fuel prices and jobs, will be asking themselves why they should care about South Ossetia (where they don't live and don't visit) or why they should be confrontational with the Russians.

Like most post soviet states I doubt the Georgians are going to question the whys of being confrontational with the Russia. There are also Georgians living in South Ossetia.

And they will choose a government that doesn't do that. At which point the Russians will resume importing Georgian wine in great quantities.

They will chose a goverment that does it less blatently perhaps.

The outcome is unlikely to be a russia friendly state. A state respectful in respect to Russia perhaps. More importantly for Russia all the other Russia boarder states will get the message.

 

[CapelDodger]

Does Georgia have any...oil?

Hmmmmmmmm..yummy.

It's very close to where there's a lot of oil - the Caspian Sea and the countries around it - and if you check out the region on a counter-map you'll see how the Azerbaijan and Georgia Caspian-Black Sea stands out. And the Black Sea means the big wide world, to those that have Constantinople on-side.

 

[geni]

The title of this thread is wrong. It should be "99% of South Ossetians want self-determination, Georgia says f@#$ you, you're our subjects whether you like it or not".

Actualty more like 80% there are a fair number of Georgians in South Ossetia. If russian refugee figures are to be believed support could now be as low as 70%.

 

[geni]

That is terribly good. If tomorrow's weather is as crap as today's - which is very likely - I will explore eXile. It looks like my sort of place .

They kinda got shut down. Now can be found at:

http://exiledonline.com/cat/war-nerd/

 

[CapelDodger]

Stalingrad was bad for the attackers. A couple of strongly nationalist Georgian units in Tamarasheni would have been a potential problem. Sure they could have repeatedly flatened the place with artillery but that isn't the war they want to fight. But Russia avoided that by getting to Tamarasheni before the Georgians could get a foothold.

That's what I mean by the Russians letting them off lightly. Had they wanted to really screw them over the Russians would have lured the Georgians in, not just given them a smack and told them to be sensible. They haven't been vindictive, they've been professional and effective.

Questionable. It is still quite popular. Soon is more likely to be weeks than days.

Weeks is very soon, months is more likely. That still rates as soon in my thinking, and for politicians months concentrate the mind wonderfully.

Like most post soviet states I doubt the Georgians are going to question the whys of being confrontational with the Russia. There are also Georgians living in South Ossetia.

Not many of them, and the South Ossetians haven't oppressed them. The Georgian locals are as offended by the Tblisi-inspired invasion as their neighbours are.

They will chose a goverment that does it less blatently perhaps.

I'm more optimistic. I think they'll choose a government that doesn't care about this kind of crap, because they don't.

The outcome is unlikely to be a russia friendly state.

More importantly, it's not going to be instinctively hostile to Russia. It will be a pragmatic state.

 

[Alex Libman]

Actualty more like 80% there are a fair number of Georgians in South Ossetia. If russian refugee figures are to be believed support could now be as low as 70%.

Yeah, my bad.

 

[moon1969]

Why is Russia bombing civilians in Gori? Gori is a town in Georgia and it has nothing to do with South Ossetia? South Ossetia is a separatist state. Maybe people who defend Russia don"t know or understand wha the word separatist means? Anyway Russia trying to take over Georgia. I wonder who will be next? Maybe Estonia or Ukraine? Russia already has Chechnya and Ramzan Kadyrov is the dictator in Chechnya.

 

[Alex Libman]

I support secession 100% of the time. If San Fransisco takes the next logical step and decides to join North Korea, I will support them.

 

[egslim]

I think you and Bismarck would have understood each other. And I mean that in a good way .
[...]
I missed the War Nerd confused link, but what I will say is that when I'm running Europe I want egslim as my Foreign Secretary. If egslim gets there first, I'll be happy to serve in that role.

Thanks! Unfortunately, we'd have to deal a lot more with the electorate than Bismarck ever did.

I missed your posts though, since you pretty much stopped posting in politics a while ago. Does your participation in this thread mean you're back?

I can't see this escalating beyond Georgia. The Russians may well thrust into Georgia proper to get a firm fist around some sensitive parts, but they won't try to occupy the place. What's in it for them? Once they've screwed out reparations to cover their costs, and maybe an annual tribute, they'll go back to South Ossetia as heroes.

I agree. But I can see Russia temporarily occupying strategic parts of the country to force Georgia to accept their terms.

 

[skepticalbeliever]

The Russians are showing them selves to be a bunch of terrorists. There's not need to bomb hotels. It is clear that the Georgian government wants a cease fire.

 

[geni]

The Russians are showing them selves to be a bunch of terrorists.

Are you takeing the position that it is posible for the regular forces of an internationaly regognised goverment to carry out terrorist acts?

There's not need to bomb hotels.

I doubt they were actualy aiming at them. US managed to hit at least one hotel during the iraq invasion (palestinian hotel hotel got hit by tank fire).

It is clear that the Georgian government wants a cease fire.

Yeah they kinda said that before. Then they attacked. Russia has stated that it to wants a cease fire conditional on Georgian withdrawal to positions held before the conflict. Indeed check out the draft US resolution proposed by russia that was slightly rejected by the US and britian.

 

[geni]

Why is Russia bombing civilians in Gori? Gori is a town in Georgia and it has nothing to do with South Ossetia?

It's being used as a stageing point for Georgian forces.

South Ossetia is a separatist state. Maybe people who defend Russia don"t know or understand wha the word separatist means? Anyway Russia trying to take over Georgia. I wonder who will be next? Maybe Estonia or Ukraine? Russia already has Chechnya and Ramzan Kadyrov is the dictator in Chechnya.

Takeing over countries is risky and expensive. Estonia is EU and probably fairly safe. Anyone to the east of that with a Russian boarder? Events in Georgia should be a fairly solid hint not to push Russia too far which is probably enough from Russia's POV.

 

[geni]

I support secession 100% of the time.

Bad move. For example Alaska's artic claims could put it the position where it decides it doesn't need the rest of the US any more.

If San Fransisco takes the next logical step and decides to join North Korea, I will support them.

A bunch of left wing hippies with an unusaly high level of support for gay rights is not a feel a natural partner for a repressive dicatorship.

 

[senorpogo]

That is terribly good. If tomorrow's weather is as crap as today's - which is very likely - I will explore eXile. It looks like my sort of place .

The eXile is a wonderfully odd place. Beyond the War Nerd, I'd also recommend the columns there by John Dolan, who called James Frey's A Million Little Pieces the fabricated piece of rubbish that it turned out to be years before others proved it to be so.

 

[senorpogo]

Every new report I read makes it clearer that Russia is not screwing around at all with this one. What's gotten into them?

I love Pravda's take on it- Russia: Again Savior of Peace and Life.

After having offered a cease fire in hostilities, the back stabbing Georgians immediately violated the cease fire, invading South Ossetia and causing massive destruction and death among innocent civilians, among peacekeepers and also destroying a hospital.

 

[moon1969]

Atleast USA and Britain could do is frozen Roman Abramovichs assetes. Why don"t they just arrest Roman Abramovich. Roman Abramovich is an oligarch. Russia says it wants to arrest Boris Berezovsky. Ok so I don"t see no reason why the west can"t arrest Roman Abramovich. Both Roman Abramovich and
Boris Berezovsky are oligarchs. LOL at russian hypocracy they want to arrest
Boris Berezovsky but not Roman Abramovich? Ah yes Putin likes Roman Abramovich. Maybe people should boycott Chelsea Football Club because Roman Abramovich is the owner. Russia invades Georgia and people like Roman Abramovich are still free to live in the west. Why don"t they ask Roman Abramovich to stop the war? Maybe Roman Abramovich could talk to Putin and make Putin stop bombing Georgia?

 

[geni]

Atleast USA and Britain could do is frozen Roman Abramovichs assetes. Why don"t they just arrest Roman Abramovich. Roman Abramovich is an oligarch.

Roman Abramovich however was smart enough to get out ahead of things getting interesting. Effectively he took that deal that in return for selling up and not opposeing Putin he would be left alone.

Russia says it wants to arrest Boris Berezovsky. Ok so I don"t see no reason why the west can"t arrest Roman Abramovich. Both Roman Abramovich and
Boris Berezovsky are oligarchs. LOL at russian hypocracy they want to arrest
Boris Berezovsky but not Roman Abramovich? Ah yes Putin likes Roman Abramovich.

Likes is going a bit far. I think more realisticaly he doesn't view Roman Abramovich as a problem.

Maybe people should boycott Chelsea Football Club because Roman Abramovich is the owner. Russia invades Georgia and people like Roman Abramovich are still free to live in the west. Why don"t they ask Roman Abramovich to stop the war? Maybe Roman Abramovich could talk to Putin and make Putin stop bombing Georgia?

Well he could as long as he didn't mind finding himself faceing an interesting set of criminal charges.

The war has a fair bit of popular support in Russia. It is only likely to stop on Russia's terms.

 

[Darth Rotor]

BTW, Darth, your cynicism is well appreciated.

I live to serve.

But lets face it, Vlad Putin kicks my ass with cynicism:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/09/georgia.ossetia/index.html

From the legal point of view, our actions are absolutely justified and legitimate," Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in Vladikavkaz, the capital of the Russian region of North Ossetia. "Moreover, they are necessary."

He arrived in the region that borders South Ossetia on Saturday night.

Putin's press secretary told Interfax that the premier was concerned about the flood of refugees arriving in Russia from South Ossetia. Russian officials said that more than 30,000 refugees have left South Ossetia and crossed into Russia over the past two days, Interfax reported.

"The actions of the Georgian authorities in South Ossetia are a crime, of course, primarily a crime against their own people," Putin said.
"This aggression led to numerous casualties, among civilians in particular, and virtually caused a real humanitarian catastrophe. And that is already a crime against the Ossetian people," he said.

"At the same time I would like to stress that Georgia has always been greatly respected in Russia and Georgians regarded as brotherly people," the premier said.

That man chose the right career: politics.

DR