Russia invades Georgia

[CapelDodger]

If we're going to get legal about it, Georgia attacked and killed Russian peace keepers that were legally stationed there under a 1994 cease fire agreement. I don't know if that by the letter of the law is an act of war, but I definitely construe it as such.

The Russian people will certainly react to it in an "Oh, buddy, have you asked for it" manner. What were the Georgians thinking?!

 

[hamelekim]

That pipeline in Georgia supplied oil to Israel and the US. Europe gets most of its oil from Iran through Russia. This is definitely important to the US, because of the pipeline as well as the power politics of controlling a country on the edge of Russian influence.

Also, considering that 60% of the budget of south ossetia comes from Russia, and most of the people have Russian citizenship, and they have been a defacto separate state since the 90's, this is a pure act of agression on the part of a US backed government.

The Georgian government also shut down opposing tv stations and implemented martial law back in 2007. Russia had every right to get involved in the fight, and the US would have done the same if the situation was reversed.

 

[senorpogo]

The Russian people will certainly react to it in an "Oh, buddy, have you asked for it" manner. What were the Georgians thinking?!

The only thing I can fathom is that they overestimated the support they'd get from the West. But that theory just raises more questions.

For example, who in their right mind would believe that the West would risk WWIII over a place called South Ossetia?

"Ossetia? Isn't that where Legolas is from?"

 

[CapelDodger]

And what if it doesn't? Then we've got WWIII on our hands. Immense danger + insignificant potential reward = very bad idea.

I think you and Bismarck would have understood each other. And I mean that in a good way .

I can't see this escalating beyond Georgia. The Russians may well thrust into Georgia proper to get a firm fist around some sensitive parts, but they won't try to occupy the place. What's in it for them? Once they've screwed out reparations to cover their costs, and maybe an annual tribute, they'll go back to South Ossetia as heroes.

 

[ddt]

Just like Josef Stalin and Roosevelt were best friends in the WW2.

If you're going to bring in WW2 stories, you should at least keep them on topic.

Georgian Uprising of Texel^WP

During WW2, a group of Georgian POW's decided to join the German Army. To the end of the war, they were stationed on the Dutch island Texel, in the North-West of the country.

The Georgian Uprising of Texel (Dutch: Opstand der Georgiërs) (April 5, 1945 – May 20, 1945) was an insurrection by the 882nd Infantry Battalion Königin Tamara (Queen Tamar or Tamara) of the Georgian Legion of the German Army (Wehrmacht Heer) stationed on the German occupied Dutch island of Texel (pronounced tessel). The battalion consisted of 800 Georgians and 400 Germans, with mainly German officers. The event has been described as Europe's last battlefield.

When the Germans wanted to move them to the Dutch mainland for a last stand against the Allies, they rebelled. Troubles between the Georgians and the (surrendered) Germans lasted until two weeks after the German capitulation, when Canadian forces arrived. 228 Georgians survived and were repatriated to the Soviet Union.

 

[CapelDodger]

That pipeline in Georgia supplied oil to Israel and the US. Europe gets most of its oil from Iran through Russia.

It's nice to have the Caspian as a potential alternative source, though.

This is definitely important to the US, because of the pipeline as well as the power politics of controlling a country on the edge of Russian influence.

Which has turned out to be a bluff that's easily called, and I rather think the next Georgian government will have taken note of that.

The Georgian government also shut down opposing tv stations and implemented martial law back in 2007. Russia had every right to get involved in the fight, and the US would have done the same if the situation was reversed.

Couldn't agree more.

 

[CapelDodger]

The only thing I can fathom is that they overestimated the support they'd get from the West. But that theory just raises more questions.

Quite a few.

Of course, they may have underestimated the Russian response, or more precisely Medvedev's response (Putin being away from his desk, so to speak).

For example, who in their right mind would believe that the West would risk WWIII over a place called South Ossetia?

Were they drunk, perhaps? You know, on a really serious bender, maybe in combination with psychotropics?

"Ossetia? Isn't that where Legolas is from?"

"Not worth the bones of one Pomeranian grenadier". That was Bismarck about some god-awful spot, probably in the Balkans.

 

[senorpogo]

Of course, they may have underestimated the Russian response, or more precisely Medvedev's response (Putin being away from his desk, so to speak).

Am I wrong in assuming that this is in some ways a godsend for Medvedev? Gets to flex the muscles and impress the nationalist types. He shows some military might while risking, what exactly? Some bad press in the West.

Were they drunk, perhaps? You know, on a really serious bender, maybe in combination with psychotropics?

Saakashvili: (rubbing forehead) Tell me I didn't go home with that fat chick last night.
Saakashvili's wingman: Actually, Saaka ol' pal, you may wish you had.
Saakashvili: (suddenly distracted) What's with all that noise outside?

 

[neutrino_cannon]

Quite a few.

Of course, they may have underestimated the Russian response, or more precisely Medvedev's response (Putin being away from his desk, so to speak).

That is indeed most curious. The 2004 War Nerd article that egslim posted summarized the situation as expecting the Russians to back down/flake out.

Looking at all those pictures of the Russian T-72s covered in ERA advancing over the border, I've got to think that Brecher was wrong on that one. They came loaded for bear, so to speak.

 

[Nogbad]

Quite a few.

Of course, they may have underestimated the Russian response, or more precisely Medvedev's response (Putin being away from his desk, so to speak).



Were they drunk, perhaps? You know, on a really serious bender, maybe in combination with psychotropics?





"Not worth the bones of one Pomeranian grenadier". That was Bismarck about some god-awful spot, probably in the Balkans.

It was the Balkans - but could have just as easily been about the other side of the Black Sea. It is remarkable how little we really ever hear of life in that patchwork of warring states. Armenia/Azerbaijan whatever became of that nasty spat?

 

[geni]

I've been thinking about this. Now, if NATO were to vote to immediately let Georgia into the organisation, I think that might frighten the Russians off.

Not remotely. Russia will simply take the opertunity to make NATO look impotent.

At the very least, Rapid Reaction Forces can get into Georgia quickly, along with air squadrons based in Turkey.

They can get there then what? This isn't early 90s Russia this is Russia 2008. At least bits of their army are competant and are operating close to home with logistics being easy. A nato rapaid reaction force well away from home bases isn't going to be able to do anything useful against that.

Of course, if it actually got that far, it'd be pretty frightening, but I don't see why we should pressure Georgia into accepting the demands of an aggressor.

Because they are fairly reasonable and Russia has the ability to fufill them by force with little difficultly.

 

[geni]

The Russian people will certainly react to it in an "Oh, buddy, have you asked for it" manner. What were the Georgians thinking?!

Saakashvili was probably thinking in terms of getting a bit more nationalism into play to firm up his support.

From the militry POV something along the lines of a very rapaid assult that managed to reach the Roki Tunnel before the russians could really react leaving them with the challange of fighting their way over the mountians.

 

[geni]

That is indeed most curious. The 2004 War Nerd article that egslim posted summarized the situation as expecting the Russians to back down/flake out.

A lot has changed in those 4 years. 2004 the russian army was only starting to rebuild with oil and gas money. 2008 and a fair bit of it is back in working order and chechnya is less of a problem.

 

[CapelDodger]

Saakashvili was probably thinking in terms of getting a bit more nationalism into play to firm up his support.

From the militry POV something along the lines of a very rapaid assult that managed to reach the Roki Tunnel before the russians could really react leaving them with the challange of fighting their way over the mountians.

You might well have hit the nail on the head there. An unpopular government playing the nationalist card, with an exaggerated sense of their own capabilities. I'm picking up a scent of the Rumsfeld doctrine, absorbed by osmosis and quite possibly encouraged by a US neocon element.

The Russians aren't fools, and there's no way they'd have troops in South Ossetia vulnerable to being made hostage by such a thrust. They had the plans and resources available to prevent it; all it took was the codeword to set it in motion. Medvedev didn't hesitate, and the Russians could get through that tunnel much faster than the Georgians could possibly get to it.

Medvedev comes out of this so well the cynic in me wonders if he - or Putin, perhaps? - didn't orchestrate it . It's quite feasible. Manipulating the current Georgian goombah regime would be child's-play to the KGB.

 

[CapelDodger]

It was the Balkans - but could have just as easily been about the other side of the Black Sea. It is remarkable how little we really ever hear of life in that patchwork of warring states. Armenia/Azerbaijan whatever became of that nasty spat?

The Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, one of the more egregious anti-nationalist poison-pills of the Soviet era. It's another "frozen conflict". Facts on the ground that the international community prefers to gloss over. As long as nobody's getting killed in a systematic manner they prefer to let it lie. As do the people on the ground, of course.

 

[geni]

Medvedev comes out of this so well the cynic in me wonders if he - or Putin, perhaps? - didn't orchestrate it . It's quite feasible. Manipulating the current Georgian goombah regime would be child's-play to the KGB.

Maybe would depend on who started the fighting back on august the 1st and the attacks on Georgian villages within Ossetia. It is posible that Georgia wasn't as in control of the escalation as it appeared although they should have been able to prevent escalation going as far as it did.

The situation wasn't as safe for russia as it may appear while the Georgians may not have been able to make it as far as the Roki Tunnel if they had managed to gain a slighty solid foothold in Tamarasheni getting them out would have been expensive.

 

[CapelDodger]

That is indeed most curious. The 2004 War Nerd article that egslim posted summarized the situation as expecting the Russians to back down/flake out.

Looking at all those pictures of the Russian T-72s covered in ERA advancing over the border, I've got to think that Brecher was wrong on that one. They came loaded for bear, so to speak.

I missed the War Nerd confused link, but what I will say is that when I'm running Europe I want egslim as my Foreign Secretary. If egslim gets there first, I'll be happy to serve in that role.

The Russians were sensitised to tunnels in Afghanistan - I forget the name of the tunnel, but it came out far too close to the Panjshir valley for comfort. In South Ossetia they can rely on friendlies to keep the Roki tunnel open until they get through it and take command of the local situation.

 

[Thunder]

Does Georgia have any...oil?

Hmmmmmmmm..yummy.

 

[ddt]

I missed the War Nerd confused link, but what I will say is that when I'm running Europe I want egslim as my Foreign Secretary. If egslim gets there first, I'll be happy to serve in that role.

The "War Nerd" article is the article in eXile. I see the two Bismarckian armchair Realpolitiker have found each other .

 

[CapelDodger]

Maybe would depend on who started the fighting back on august the 1st and the attacks on Georgian villages within Ossetia. It is posible that Georgia wasn't as in control of the escalation as it appeared although they should have been able to prevent escalation going as far as it did.

The Tblisi regime's control over its various agencies is questionable. A modern, established nation-state should certainly be expected to maintain control of the situation, but Georgia is not one. Its agencies (like its claimed borders) are inherited from the Soviet system, and still include a lot of the old personnel in senior posts. Many of whom are within three-degrees-of-freedom to Putin, and have more respect for Moscow than they do for the posers in Tblisi.

The situation wasn't as safe for russia as it may appear while the Georgians may not have been able to make it as far as the Roki Tunnel if they had managed to gain a slighty solid foothold in Tamarasheni getting them out would have been expensive.

Expensive for the residents, but they'll blame the Georgians (with good reason); not very expensive for the Russians (they're attacking Georgian communications to the T-place as we speak); but terribly expensive for the Georgians as they desperately reinforce failure up to the last minute. The Russians are letting them off lightly; they could have turned the South Ossetian capital into Georgia's Stalingrad, and the retreat from it up there with Napoleon's Retreat From Moscow. Or the Road to Basra. They're not going down that route because they want popular resentment to be directed elsewhere - by both sides.

The current Georgian regime will fall very soon, and US influence will vanish with it. Ordinary Georgians, with all the ordinary everyday concerns of food and fuel prices and jobs, will be asking themselves why they should care about South Ossetia (where they don't live and don't visit) or why they should be confrontational with the Russians. And they will choose a government that doesn't do that. At which point the Russians will resume importing Georgian wine in great quantities.