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Russia invades Georgia

It's much more serious then we think. Georgia has plenty of natural resources, along with two pipelines that supply Europe.

If NATO really wanted to scare the Russians off, they could just vote to let Georgia into NATO immediately. Which might work.
 
Uzzy said:
It's much more serious then we think. Georgia has plenty of natural resources, along with two pipelines that supply Europe.

If NATO really wanted to scare the Russians off, they could just vote to let Georgia into NATO immediately. Which might work.
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That's true. This affair is very serious, extremely bad news.

If the russians were intending an escalation and making this an international issue, the BTC Pipieline would lie in shreds already at this moment. That pipeline is one of the main reasons why so much money floated Georgia and why Sackarschwilli behaves like a megalomaniac today. What makes the issue even more delicate is that the pipeline will probably never reach the planned amount of transported fuel because while it was build, Russia made alternative contracts with the countries that were entitled to deliver the fuel. It will most likely be transported on an east-north route around the caspian sea, not through BTC. So Georgia is sort of a lame duck now, which may be used for extreme actions like we are witnessing here.
 
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Uzzy said:
It's much more serious then we think. Georgia has plenty of natural resources, along with two pipelines that supply Europe.

If NATO really wanted to scare the Russians off, they could just vote to let Georgia into NATO immediately. Which might work.
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Oh, and the US is pushing to let Georgia into the NATO for quite some time, the reason it wasn't done yet is because of opposition by some core european countries, mainly Germany. Someone there might have read Brzezinski's "Grand Chessboard".
 
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With regards to the conflict, I agree that the best action from the West would be to stay well out of it. And indeed, that's almost certainly what we will do. NATO or the US are in no mood for a fight with Russia. Our involvement may amount to "diplomatic pressure" or "condemnation" but little more.

With regards to the rights or the wrongs of the conflict, I'd have to say that Russia are justified in responding to Georgian aggression. Let's not forget that the Georgian army launched an assault upon SO just hours after signing a peace fire agreement. By early reports and news footage this has led to large numbers of civilian casualties. Georgia obviously still regards SO as part of its country, and so like separatist regions around the world there is the thorny question of dominion and right to rule. But in cases where you have a distinct culture/language and an overwhelming desire for independence, I think the rights of the separatist region should be respected. (That should of course extend to Chechnya as well)

for the Russians part, they are hardly blameless. They have been looking to assert themselves over their former Eastern Bloc through sometimes quite aggressive means. One only has to look at Russian intervention in the Ukrainian election or their use of oil/gas diplomacy in the region. Georgia's pro-Western stance towards NATO has obviously heightened the diplomatic tensions. There have been recent reports of Russian spy drones flying over SO, and one could certainly see the Georgian offensive as providing an excellent opportunity for Russia to further strengthen its role in the region.

With reports that Russia has now carried out targeted attacks inside Georgia itself, there is a very real danger of an escalation of the conflict between the two nations. It will be a very one-sided struggle however, the West will not get involved, and Georgia may have picked the wrong fight.
 
It's nice to see that you don't defend the misleading thread title and show a quite differentiated stance on the issue, but

andyandy said:
One only has to look at Russian intervention in the Ukrainian election or their use of oil/gas diplomacy in the region.
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What election are you refering to? The 2004 "Orange Revolution" was clearly done with a lot of money by the same people who did the georgian "Rose Revolution" - Open Society, NED and USAID - and their freedom-loving "NGO"'s. The ukrainian version completely failed already, the georgian version will follow soon.
 
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Why don't they silence oppponents anymore like they've silenced them before - silent car accidents, even hanging them under a bridge - nowadays it has to be poisoning with some extravagent substance.

What is the reason to poison a character like Litvinenko the way they did? Why do they want YOU to pay attention?
 
And people who are defending Russia. What will you do or say when Russia attacks Ukraine or Estonia next? Oh yeah right. That Putin is the real anti-NWO guy? Too bad Putins best friend is George W. Bush and Roman Abramovich. Surely if Vladimir really was anti-NWO he would not be friends with Roman Abramovich. LOL Vladimir Putin and Roman Abramovich are like father and son. Two lying morons who want to great a Russian empire.
 
This is a US vs Russia proxy war through Georgia. Georgia is extremely important for the future control and transportation of oil. It should be noted that the US has armed Georgia with US military gear, and has had war games with them as little as a month or two ago. They are also linked to the election of the current leader of Georgia.

This could easily spread into something larger as I doubt the US would just let Russia take over Georgia, if Russia does attempt a complete take over, rather than just the defense of the break away area.

It should also be noted that Russia only invaded after 10 of their peace keepers were killed, and 30 injured by attacking Georgian troops. This isn't an absolute act of aggression on the part of Russia.
 
moon1969 said:
And people who are defending Russia. What will you do or say when Russia attacks Ukraine or Estonia next? Oh yeah right. That Putin is the real anti-NWO guy? Too bad Putins best friend is George W. Bush and Roman Abramovich. Surely if Vladimir really was anti-NWO he would not be friends with Roman Abramovich. LOL Vladimir Putin and Roman Abramovich are like father and son. Two lying morons who want to great a Russian empire.
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Have you read the history of the US? Support for countless dictators during the cold war. Overthrowing democratically elected government to put in dictators that killed tens of thousands if not millions of people.

Don't even attempt to try to paint the US in golden colours. Russia is doing what is best for Russia, just as the US is doing what is best for the US. It's self interest nothing else.
 
ddt said:
I tried to read up a couple of wiki pages where this conflict comes from and I'm left with a couple of questions:
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This article describes the conflict, from a somewhat unconventional perspective. But it does answer your questions, somewhat.

[*]has Ossetia always been divided into a northern part belonging to Russia and a southern part belonging to Georgia? Or is this a creation stemming from the 1920-1922 civil war?
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The Ossetians are the remnants of the Alanii, who were chased into the mountains by the Mongols. "From then on it was just a matter of who was going to dominate them, the Russians or the Georgians. Most Ossetians preferred the Russians, who were farther away and not so damn interested in them."

As far as I can tell Ossetia has known periods of Georgian domination, Russian domination, or as divided between them. And it all stretches back a very long time.

[*]do the South Ossetians want independence as South Ossetia, have independence in a united Ossetia, or be part of Russia?
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"In 1989 [...] South Ossetia declared itself united with North Ossetia. [...] Backed by the Russians and plenty of North Ossetian first cousins, the South Ossetian irregulars wound up flattening the Georgians and have been free-ish ever since."

I think they want a united Ossetia, within the sphere of inluence/under the protection of Russia.

[*]how come most South Ossetians now have Russian passports?
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Ossetia is probably too small for independence in a region as, uhm, dynamic as the Caucasus. So since they hate Georgia more it makes sense to crawl under Russia's wing, and with plenty of family members in Russian-owned North Ossetia it should be fairly easy to obtain Russian passports.

[*]how come the enmity between South Ossetians and Georgians?
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"The Caucasus is a crazy maze of mountain valleys, every damn one marked off as the property of one tribe or another. Step across some imaginary line and you're walking into a blood feud that's been going since the last Ice Age. This is feudin' country that makes Appalachia look like Haight-Ashbury.

While the Soviets were in charge, the Caucasians put their feudin' gear in storage. Stalin was one babysitter you didn't act up with.
[...]
Georgia's small enough already, but even so, there are at least three parts of it that may or may not be ethnically distinct, depending on who you ask and who's got the gun at the moment.
[...]
Ossetians don't think of themselves as ethnic Georgians. The Ossetians have what you call "a glorious past," and in their case it's true."
 
Russia claims it wants South-Ossetia to be apart of Russia and independent from Georgia. Then how come Russia is not giving independence to Chechnya? Why is dictator Ramzan Kadyrov the president of Chechnya? How hypocritical are the russians? And yeah if the west decides to stay out of this then well just like in WW2 when Roosevelt let Stalin be a dictator. Russia has no right to invade other peoples countries. Still I bet the next will be Estonia or Ukraine. I really hope Russia loses to Georgia.
 
When Russia tries to overthrow Mikheil Saakashvili what will the USA do? Will USA turn their backs on Mikheil Saakashvili like USA turned its back on Ngo Dinh Diem and South Vietnam?
 
moon1969 said:
Then how come Russia is not giving independence to Chechnya?
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They sort of tried that:
"The Russians pulled out—and the Chechens turned into monsters. The biggest industry in the country was kidnapping. They kidnapped more than 3,000 Russians in cross-border raids between 1997-99. To convince the relatives to part with the ransom, they released videos of some hardworking loony sawing off the hostage’s head with a sheepgutting knife. Another video I saw shows the Chechen kidnappers shooting off a Russian hostage’s finger, then laughing as he cries in pain.
[...]
Meanwhile Shamil Basaev, sort of a Chechen version of Nathan Bedford Forrest, launched incredible raids deep into Russia, which ended with hundreds of Russian civilians dead. The Chechens were so confident of Russian weakness that they actually tried to invade the Russian republic of Daghestan, take it over, and create an oil-rich independent Muslim country on the Caspian Sea."

In addition, I believe Chechnya is Sunni Muslim, which makes them a natural ally of Al Qaeda. You'd better hope Russia can keep Chechnya in check, otherwise it can be next in line as an Al Qaeda strongpoint, after Afghanistan and now Pakistan.

And yeah if the west decides to stay out of this then well just like in WW2 when Roosevelt let Stalin be a dictator.
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What could he have done otherwise, invade Russia? Roosevelt didn't "let" Stalin do much of anything, Stalin was quite capable of pulling it off all by himself.

Russia has no right to invade other peoples countries.
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Except that the Ossetians, who form the native population in the area in question, actually seem to prefer Russia over Georgia. Put bluntly, if NATO had the right to intervene on the side of Kosovo against the Serbs, then Russia has the right to intervene on the side of the Ossetians against Georgia.
 
Just out of curiosity, what happens if Georgia invokes Chapter 7 of the UN Charter? Unless I am mistaken, Georgia is a UN Member State, and South Ossetia is not recognised by the UN as an independent entity, but is part of Georgian sovereign territory. As such, Georgia's activities in South Ossetia are "internal" and outside the jurisdiction of the UN (however wrong they may be), however Russia's movement into South Ossetia is an International Armed Conflict and therefore inside the UN's jurisdiction.
 
gumboot said:
Just out of curiosity, what happens if Georgia invokes Chapter 7 of the UN Charter? Unless I am mistaken, Georgia is a UN Member State, and South Ossetia is not recognised by the UN as an independent entity, but is part of Georgian sovereign territory. As such, Georgia's activities in South Ossetia are "internal" and outside the jurisdiction of the UN (however wrong they may be), however Russia's movement into South Ossetia is an International Armed Conflict and therefore inside the UN's jurisdiction.
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Russian veto?
 
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