Rumours about a Canadian election!

Jimbo07 said:
That's funny! At least you're not in my riding with no fewer than 4 conservative parties to choose from!

On the centre-left, I can choose the Liberals
or NDP,
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Depending on where you are living, you might also have the Communist Party and the Marxist-Lennonist party (I am sure someone could describe the differences between them, but I'm too lazy to look it up).

There is also the Animal Protection Party, which doesn't EXACTLY fit in the left-right political spectrum, but I suspect that most of its voters would be more likely vote for the NDP or Liberals rather than Conservatives.
but on the right I have my choice of:
the Conservative Party
the Peoples Party of Canada
the Christian Heritage Party
or the Maverick Party
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Right-wingers in other parts of the country can also vote for the Canadian Nationalist Party, National Citizens Alliance of Canada, or Parti Patriote.
 
Steve said:
I cannot support a party that has politically violent supporters.
Unfortunately, in north America at least, political violence seems to be largely a conservative trait.
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So what are the limits of that particular argument?

Is there a minimum number of "violent supporters" that a party has, or if a single nutcase NDP or Liberal supporter causes problems at a conservative political event, is that enough to cause you to drop support? And is the reason for violence relevant? As someone has pointed out, there is probably some overlap between supporters of groups like BLM who might have engaged in violence and the NDP/Liberals. (Note: I do recognize a difference between groups with legitimate concerns like BLM and those who are simply idiots, like Anti-vaxxers. But your original comment was a general complaint about "politically violent supporters", without concern about their numbers, principles, or goals.)

And are the policies of the alternatives relevant? What if the choice is between a party where a few supporters were violent (but they were condemned by the party as a whole), and a party rife with scandal and policies which are destructive? What if it was found that Trudeau was taking bribes and had plans to suspend all future elections? Would you still consider that preferable to a party where a small fraction was violent?
 
So, the NDP, jealous of the other parties having candidates drop out for various reasons (both Conservatives and Liberals have had candidates drop out after various allegations of abuse), have decided to go big...

And have had TWO candidates drop out.

From: CBC (The Mother Corps)
The NDP says two of its candidates have quit the federal election race...Sidney Coles, running in Toronto-St. Paul's, and Dan Osborne, running in the Nova Scotia riding of Cumberland-Colchester, are resigning.
...
Coles claimed on Twitter that Israel was somehow responsible for missing doses of COVID-19 vaccine...She later apologized for posting "unsubstantiated theories about vaccine supply linked to Israel," and said it was never her intent to indulge a "common antisemitic trope"
...
Osborne is accused of tweeting at TV personality Oprah Winfrey in 2019 asking "was Auschwitz a real place?"...He responded...saying he has no memory of tweeting that, but apologized.

Don't think it will make too much difference in the election... the Toronto Riding seems to be solidly liberal, and the NDP were never really competitive in Nova Scotia. So the NDP were unlikely to have picked up seats there.
 
So, with about a week to go in the election, what are people's thoughts so far?

Maybe its just the TV shows I watch, but one thing that seems to stick out to me are how the NDP ads seem to outnumber those of the conservatives and the Liberals. (NDP ads seem to be a combination of attacks on Trudeau... "Look how similar they are to the conservatives", and the party leader talking about policy.)

The reason I thought it was notable is because in the past, the Conservatives seemed to have the bigger media presence (probably because they had the most funding).
 
Segnosaur said:
So, with about a week to go in the election, what are people's thoughts so far?
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I'm gonna go wait out on a limb... I'm really going to stick my neck out here... I'm reaching and risking by making a public prediction, but...

another minority government
 
Jimbo07 said:
I'm gonna go wait out on a limb... I'm really going to stick my neck out here... I'm reaching and risking by making a public prediction, but...

another minority government
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Yes but will it be a Liberal or Conservative minority?

The Liberals had been trailing the conservatives in polls a few weeks ago, but they seem to have caught up and are slightly ahead (31.9 to 30.3%), but its all within the margin of error. Plus you have a lot of other factors that could affect the outcome: whether the PPC bleeds off some conservative support, whether conservative or NDP voters might be more reliable in the midst of the pandemic.

See: CTV News
 
Border Reiver said:
That's a bold prediction there.
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Segnosaur said:
Yes but will it be a Liberal or Conservative minority?
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Yep, my prediction stands. As you're pointing out, all that's left to decide is the Over/Under. Total seats between the two? Any vote-splitting?

So...

I'll make a slightly more serious, and more detailed (if riskier), prediction:

A Liberal Minority... with the loss of another 1 or 2 seats! Will this put the Prime Minister in a bit of a political bind? If so, it'd surely an own-goal at this point.
 
Segnosaur said:
So, with about a week to go in the election, what are people's thoughts so far?
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Well, my biggest "WTF?" moment this week was

Annamie Paul says she's considered stepping down as Green party leader
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I mean, what the hell? Who says something like this in the middle of an election campaign?!?

I'd say it adds weight to my theory that no one actually wants to win this election, except that the Greens were never going to win it, so no need to deliberately torpedo their own campaign.
 
On a more serious note, one thing I have noted is that there seem to be far fewer election signs on people's front lines this time around, and of the few I've seen, most have been Conservative.

There seems to be a big element of "Meh" to this whole thing. "Okay, fine, there's an election, I'll vote, but I'll be damned if I'm going to be enthusiastic about it." I think only Conservative voters really care because they think they have a shot at ousting Trudeau, but even they aren't all that keen.
 
Segnosaur said:
Yes but will it be a Liberal or Conservative minority?

The Liberals had been trailing the conservatives in polls a few weeks ago, but they seem to have caught up and are slightly ahead (31.9 to 30.3%), but its all within the margin of error. Plus you have a lot of other factors that could affect the outcome: whether the PPC bleeds off some conservative support, whether conservative or NDP voters might be more reliable in the midst of the pandemic.

See: CTV News
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Total votes are not so important. Seats are. The distribution of votes matters more than the total.
 
Late to the conversation here, but have enjoyed catching up on the discussion. Lots of good points/observations by all the posters. I agree this will be a "hold your nose and cast your ballot" election for many liberal supporters who aren't keen on Trudeau or the calling of the election, but I don't think the total numbers will come out that differently. Perhaps a few liberal seats lost to NPD or conservatives. I agree that a weaker, but essentially unchanged minority Liberal government is likely.
That said, I remember when Ontario "accidentally" voted in an NDP government. The common phrase I heard then was "I'm sure the Liberals will win, but this time I'm going to vote NDP." Such an outcome is not inconceivable here (though I too have noticed more "C" lawn signs.)
 
attempt5001 said:
Such an outcome is not inconceivable here (though I too have noticed more "C" lawn signs.)
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I was just reading a reddit thread about election signs in my area, and at least one poster there noted the same dearth of signs on private lawns that I noted. So, it's maybe not just a fluke, if others are noticing it as well.
 
Horatius said:
I was just reading a reddit thread about election signs in my area, and at least one poster there noted the same dearth of signs on private lawns that I noted. So, it's maybe not just a fluke, if others are noticing it as well.
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I wonder if the short election has something to do with it. Given the time needed to print and distribute signs, and the short period between election call and voting day, parties didn't emphasive them much.

Or maybe people are not getting them because it involves physically picking them up (thus interacting with others) and people do not want to risk that during covid.

Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk
 
Jimbo07 said:
I'm gonna go wait out on a limb... I'm really going to stick my neck out here... I'm reaching and risking by making a public prediction, but...

another minority government
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Look Cassandra, there is no way Trudeau would call an election if he wasn't guaranteed a majority.
 
Fitter said:
Look Cassandra, there is no way Trudeau would call an election if he wasn't guaranteed a majority.
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For my own entertainment, I'd prefer to be wrong! "A surprise majority! Wow! Did not see that coming..."
 
Saw a strange election sign yesterday...


It was a "Not Arya" sign, referring to a Liberal candidate in an Ottawa/Nepean riding. (And this wasn't just a single home-made sign, but a printed sign, with copies put up next to every Liberal campaign sign.)

Weird, because apart from occasional union-supported campaigns targeting conservatives, its strange to see signs simply being against a candidate.

ETA: I assume it was about the Liberal Candidate, unless it was from a Game of Thrones fan who really didn't like the way they defeated the White Walkers.
 
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Segnosaur said:
Weird, because apart from occasional union-supported campaigns targeting conservatives, its strange to see signs simply being against a candidate.
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Yeah, I've heard the ABC thing, but I haven't seen any signs like it.
 
This is helpful (https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2021/results/) :/

Currently updating zeroes across the board every 20 seconds. Maybe the site didn't need to go live until there were actually results to report.
Am I right in remembering that they don't start updating poll results anywhere in Canada until the polls out west have closed (to avoid preliminary results in the east impacting voter actions in the west)?
 
attempt5001 said:
Am I right in remembering that they don't start updating poll results anywhere in Canada until the polls out west have closed (to avoid preliminary results in the east impacting voter actions in the west)?
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The TVs used to do that, before Al Gore invented the Internets. It looks like section 329 was repealed way back in 2014.

Now it looks like they offset the time of day a bit:

128 (1) The voting hours on polling day are

(a) from 8:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m., if the electoral district is in the Newfoundland, Atlantic or Central time zone;

(b) from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m., if the electoral district is in the Eastern time zone;

(c) from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m., if the electoral district is in the Mountain time zone; and

(d) from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m., if the electoral district is in the Pacific time zone.
 
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