Rudy Giuliani Campaign Deathwatch

[Brainster]

I had actually thought for awhile that his "strategery" of waiting until Florida might actually be working out for him, given the three different winners of the early contested states (Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan). But McCain's win in South Carolina has catapulted him to clear frontrunner status, and the "earned media" (that is, media that comes from winning) has sucked the air right out of Rudy's sails. The latest polling average at Real Clear Politics shows him trailing both McCain and Romney by 7 points in Florida.

More stunning has been Giuliani's recent slide in the prediction markets. InTrade had him at around 30% to win the nomination as recently as early January and 45% at Thanksgiving and now puts him at around 10%.

Byron York ponders the question, did Rudy blow it?

I asked Giuliani campaign manager Mike DuHaime whether it made sense to abandon the early-primary states. He reminded me that that’s not a completely accurate description of Giuliani’s strategy. “We did spend a fair amount of resources in New Hampshire,” DuHaime told me. “We just looked and realized the inherent strength that John McCain, from 2000, had in New Hampshire and South Carolina and Michigan, and we were obviously looking at Governor Romney in New Hampshire and Michigan. And looking at those inherent strengths, and looking at the financial costs of running in all those states at the same time, we had to do what we thought was ultimately in the best interest of the candidate, that best fits the candidate.”

Yes, Giuliani’s rivals were strong in those states. But Giuliani was, at times, strong, too. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, he was second in Iowa as late as the first of October. He was second in New Hampshire as late as the first of December. He was leading in Michigan as late as mid-December. And he was tied for the lead in South Carolina at the same time. All those competitive positions were gone by the end of December.

I asked two long-time Republican strategists who are now affiliated with rival campaigns — Vin Weber with the Romney campaign and Charlie Black with McCain — what they made of the situation. Both seemed genuinely baffled by Giuliani’s course. “All the campaigns, including ours, were a little bit wrong in thinking you can win this nomination by some combination of early-state knockouts,” Weber told me yesterday. “That’s not going to happen. But I think Rudy could have competed — not won, but competed — in all those early states and he’d be a heck of a lot better off now.”

It certainly appears to me that Rudy is nearing toast status. This may be a big break for John McCain, who clearly stands to pick up Giuliani's endorsement if Hizzoner decides to drop out of the race after Florida. Rudy has said on several occasions that if he were not in the race himself, he'd support McCain.

Now, that mentioned, Rudy does have something of an ace in the hole. Florida is one of those states that allows early voting, and it is possible that enough voters already cast ballots to allow him to withstand the McRomney onslaught.

Republicans are outpacing Democrats in requesting and returning absentees - an area where the GOP historically has held an advantage in Florida. Democrats' absentee returns are proportionally higher than in past elections, and they hold a slight lead in early voting despite the statewide boycott by their party's presidential hopefuls.

So far 325,161 Republicans have cast early or absentee votes, compared to 295,932 Democrats.

But if Rudy doesn't take Florida he seems in grave trouble. Polls in New York State already show him losing to McCain by 5.5% in the RCP average. As several wags have remarked, if he can't make it there, he can't make it anywhere.

 

[Puppycow]

It seems that markets now favor Romney over McCain to win Florida. Giuliani is down to 6%. However, the polls and CW have already been dead-wrong once this primary season. (In a way, I'm glad that it means the world is not always so deterministic and predictable, although I was rooting for Obama).

Giuliani's hometown paper went out of its way to dis him in endorsing his rival, McCain, although probably not too many conservatives take their cues from the New York Times.

The real Mr. Giuliani, whom many New Yorkers came to know and mistrust, is a narrow, obsessively secretive, vindictive man who saw no need to limit police power. Racial polarization was as much a legacy of his tenure as the rebirth of Times Square.

Mr. Giuliani’s arrogance and bad judgment are breathtaking. When he claims fiscal prudence, we remember how he ran through surpluses without a thought to the inevitable downturn and bequeathed huge deficits to his successor. He fired Police Commissioner William Bratton, the architect of the drop in crime, because he couldn’t share the limelight. He later gave the job to Bernard Kerik, who has now been indicted on fraud and corruption charges.

The Rudolph Giuliani of 2008 first shamelessly turned the horror of 9/11 into a lucrative business, with a secret client list, then exploited his city’s and the country’s nightmare to promote his presidential campaign.

Firing Bratton in favor of Kerick says it all: It's not about who's best for the job, but rather who's best for Giuliani personally. That sort of cronyism is why we had the likes of Brownie in charge of FEMA and Gonzales for an AG, and would have had Harriet Meirs on the Supreme Court if Republicans hadn't revolted. Hopefully we've had our fill of that sort of leadership.

 

[corplinx]

Racial polarization was as much a legacy of his tenure as the rebirth of Times Square

The good ole times. Why call someone a racist if you can say it indirectly and say later "thats not what we meant".

 

[Regnad Kcin]

It certainly appears to me that Rudy is nearing toast status.

Considering his proclaimed faith, might it be Virgin Mary toast?

 

[corplinx]

Firing Bratton in favor of Kerick says it all:

I don't think it does. I'm not sure how accurate the version of that firing that's made its way into the zeitgeist is.

That sort of cronyism is why we had the likes of Brownie in charge of FEMA and Gonzales for an AG, and would have had Harriet Meirs on the Supreme Court if Republicans hadn't revolted. Hopefully we've had our fill of that sort of leadership.

I'll go out on a limb here. I think if we put Brownie under the microscope, we'll find his performance _leading up_ to Katrina was actually above and beyond. I think it comes down the failure of the locals to take the baton. Brownie really stuck it to them when they put him before congress. Not to mention that videos released showed Brownie large and in charge _days_ before the Hurricane made landfall. People slam Nagin and the Governor, but this isn't about buses. Nagin actually broke down crying on the radio and begging someone to take over the city. Fema is assistance, not an occupational force. Period. End of story.

Mind you, you could fill the grand canyon with bad fema stories from the frontlines afterwards, trailers, money, contractors, etc. But this is why you have to have locals leading and Fema assisting. I think the Florida hurricanes later and the San Diego wildfires really opened peoples eyes about the role of the federal government and Fema in local disasters and about why New Orleans was different than those situations.

Yes, Brownie was a crony but I don't think the Katrina aftermath was a result of cronyism. Brownie was replaced quickly but Fema still remained inefficient and ineffective in that region. Whenever I was down there for the rebuilding of our casinos, local talk radio was rife with people venting about the latest FEMA fiasco there locally. Take a local leadership vacuum, local corruption of epic proportions, and add federal bureacracy and you have a bad mix.

However, Harriet was a lightweight as far as I could ever find out. Gonzalez never seemed to do anything but create suspicion. The real justice travesty under Bush in my opinion was letting the justice department get stuffed with people from an evangelical diploma mill. That is the ultimate WTF. Gonzalez seemed to have no agenda under Bush. In lieu of not having a cause, he performed as a functionary. Earth to Gonzalez, if you wan't to be the CEO AG, you can't have the department filled with buffoons.

 

[Abdul Alhazred]

Mayor of New York City is a dead end job politically.

Lindsay ran for president. He later disappeared from public view and became destitute. He was given some sinecure by Giuliani.

Beame was pretty old already and retired.

Koch ran for governor while still mayor, and lost. He was the last mayor of New York City not to be restricted by term limits, but people got sick of him already after 12 years. He became a media ass hole.

Dinkins is a professor at Columbia University.

...

Bloomberg will still be a billionaire.



Sorry Rudy. You're America's favorite ex-mayor. Go with that as a way of drumming up legal business if you need the money.

 

[Abdul Alhazred]

Oh. And the New York Times is not anyone's hometown paper. Just ask the Daily News.

Not that the Daily News would endorse Rudy.

 

[HereticHulk]

The man is incompetent! He was at the helm on 9/11 failed miserably and then tries to exploit it.

The New York Police Department produced a detailed analysis in 1998 opposing plans by the city to locate its emergency command center at the World Trade Center, but the Giuliani administration overrode those objections. The command center later collapsed from damage in the Sept. 11 terrorist attack.“Seven World Trade Center is a poor choice for the site of a crucial command center for the top leadership of the City of New York,” a panel of police experts, which was aided by the Secret Service, concluded in a confidential Police Department memorandum.

The memorandum, which has not been previously disclosed, cited a number of “significant points of vulnerability.” Those included: the building’s public access, the center’s location on the 23rd floor, a 1,200-gallon diesel fuel supply for its generator, a large garage and delivery bays, the building’s history as a terrorist target, and its placement above and adjacent to a Consolidated Edison substation that provided much of the power for Lower Manhattan.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/26/us/politics/26emergency.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

 

[Puppycow]

The man is incompetent! He was at the helm on 9/11 failed miserably and then tries to exploit it.



http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/26/us/politics/26emergency.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

That's actually a pretty damning memo.

The New York Police Department produced a detailed analysis in 1998 opposing plans by the city to locate its emergency command center at the World Trade Center, but the Giuliani administration overrode those objections. The command center later collapsed from damage in the Sept. 11 terrorist attack.

I'll go out on a limb here. I think if we put Brownie under the microscope, we'll find his performance _leading up_ to Katrina was actually above and beyond. I think it comes down the failure of the locals to take the baton. Brownie really stuck it to them when they put him before congress.

I'll admit that no-one in the same position could have prevented the disaster or avoided criticism. The real problem was the location of New Orleans and its dilapidated levies. But still, he was a crony and he didn't seem to have the qualifications for the job.

The real justice travesty under Bush in my opinion was letting the justice department get stuffed with people from an evangelical diploma mill.

Yep. That's probably even more troubling, although the Harriet Miers thing was so bad his own party revolted. It's the Supreme Court after all. These people are in for life and can't be removed if we find out later that they're not up to the job.

 

[Wildy]

So he's not trailing Romney and McCain by a range of 9 - 11 points?











I couldn't help myself

 

[T.A.M.]

Guiliani a FAILURE on 9/11???

but HH, he was perfect in his execution of 9/11, along with his NWO partners. How could you call him a failure???

LOL

TAM

 

[hgc]

So he's not trailing Romney and McCain by a range of 9 - 11 points?

 

[Brainster]

An LA Times blogger is claiming that Rudy will probably drop out after Florida:

Rudy Giuliani appears to be pondering an end to his long pursuit of the Republican presidential nomination.

In a meeting in the back of his chartered plane en route to St. Petersburg, Fla., a short while ago, the onetime, longtime GOP front-runner told a small group of reporters, including The Times' Louise Roug: "The winner of Florida will win the nomination."

He then went on to predict he would win. And his spokeswoman, Maria Comella, said later he was speaking with confidence.

I love the comments from the Ron Paul supporters after that post:

Thank you Mr. Malcolm and LA Times. This is a game of last man standing. Once there were 11, now there are 5. Dr Ron Paul is in 4th place in the delegate count. He came in 2nd in Nevada, and 2nd or 1st in Louisiana.

With any luck, all those sorry clowns will drop out and Dr. Ron Paul will win by default.

Let's see the media try to lock him out then!

With any luck indeed!

 

[dudalb]

An LA Times blogger is claiming that Rudy will probably drop out after Florida:



I love the comments from the Ron Paul supporters after that post:





With any luck indeed!

The Paul supporters are really smoking some strong Sh-t.

But it's hard to deny that Giuliani campaign strategy has been one of the most misguided.disasterous,and just plain stupid adapted by any candidate in recent history.
He gave up all momentum to his opponents by his not fighting for the early states,and it is almost impossible to recover from that.

 

[RedIbis]

I look forward to Rudy's concession speech tomorrow night. Hey, do I win a million?

 

[hgc]

Rudy said on the boob tube this morning that he's planning on showing up for the California debates. That's the only thing that keeps me from striking him through in the primaries tracking thread. This is a tricky problem for candidates - how not to lie right down to the last about your intentions, so as not to sound like you're conceding before the polls close on election day.

 

[T.A.M.]

I think if Rudy hits a close second place, he may remain in, or of course, if he wins.

A 3rd or dare I say worse, and he is out IMO.

Look for Ron Paul to NOT make a move in Florida...lol

TAM

 

[dudalb]

I think Giuliani will keep in the race till after Super Tuesday..it;s only a week,and he will do it out of pride for no other reason.
If he does poorly next Tuesday,he will drop out.

 

[Puppycow]

With a 3rd place in Florida, Rudy's officially finished. Well, maybe not officially, but he's finished.

 

[FM21.105]

Guilinani is getting smashed in Florida as we speak.