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Romney on intrade

Where will Romney bottom out on Intrade

  • 31-32%

    Votes: 6 14.0%

  • 30-31%

    Votes: 3 7.0%

  • 29-30%

    Votes: 4 9.3%

  • 27-29%

    Votes: 1 2.3%

  • 25-27%

    Votes: 4 9.3%

  • Less than 25%

    Votes: 25 58.1%
  • Total voters
    43
I'd guess about the same as Newt by November. Romney is trying to scam the whole country.
 
I think you are going to need a lower poll, with the options.....


approaching absolute zero....

Mission Accomplished!
 
When it comes to satirical posts, I've figured "what's the point?" After the election, I'm turning this account over to Mitt Romney.
 
IMO any crowing over the coming Obama victory is premature. It won't take much for public opinion to swing decisively against Obama (I can't see it swinging decisively for Romney), it would just be a steep rise in the price of gas (petrol), a terrible set of job numbers or a really good set of attack ads to have Romney back in the race.
 
Alferd_Packer said:
and for what it's worth, he's at 32.1% now.
Click to expand...

And now he's at 31.3%.

That's still more of a chance than Nate Silver is giving him.

All contracts eventually end up at either 0% or 100%, so anyone predicting anything other than zero is predicting a Romney victory.
 
Puppycow said:
All contracts eventually end up at either 0% or 100%, so anyone predicting anything other than zero is predicting a Romney victory.
Click to expand...

True, but my assumption is that his numbers will recover somewhat at some point before then.
 
Below 25% by October 10th. That'll be where people really start to completely bail out on him -- Intrade (from what I've seen) tends to have 'cliffs' that particular events fall off after they hit a certain point.
 
As far as I am aware from previous years, the numbers really start to become accurate a couple days after the first debate. So I'm not voting in this poll until 2 weeks from now.
 
****BREAKING*****

He's broken through the 32% floor.

For a while there it looked like he was rallying, but his pandering appearance on Univision seems to have broken the floor.

30.5%!!!!!!!
 
remirol said:
Below 25% by October 10th. That'll be where people really start to completely bail out on him -- Intrade (from what I've seen) tends to have 'cliffs' that particular events fall off after they hit a certain point.
Click to expand...

Alferd_Packer said:
28.0

This is not good for Romney.
Click to expand...

Or my prediction. :/ Below a certain point people will be rushing to get on board before it zeroes out and nobody will buy Romney anymore. 25.0 is the point where Obama bettors will have only 1-to-3 payout on their money, and it makes a nice round number which is partly why I picked it -- but there is indeed a point where it will be hard as hell to find someone willing to buy Romney at _any_ price that's close to his actual current chances. At that point the price will crater at around 2.0-3.0.

From a vanity perspective, I'm concerned that the "cliff" will happen before the end of September now.
 
A determined effort by Romney supporters to drive the price back above $3.00 has failed.

He is lower than ever at $2.75.
 
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