Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

If Romney could maintain the momentum then that would significantly change things. However, the long term trend has not been good and it certainly shows a degree of a vacillating electorate.

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But anyone who thinks Romney doesn't have a good shot at it is delusional. He's in this and the ball is in his court at the moment (though the trend my have stalled).
 
RandFan said:
If Romney could maintain the momentum then that would significantly change things. However, the long term trend has not been good and it certainly shows a degree of a vacillating electorate.

[qimg]http://imageshack.us/a/img825/432/rcp4.jpg[/qimg]

But anyone who thinks Romney doesn't have a good shot at it is delusional. He's in this and the ball is in his court at the moment (though the trend my have stalled).
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Yes, because the trending in the graphs doesn't seem to be based on positives, but negatives. Obama was at his peak just before the debate, and that was based pretty much on Romney's miserable September. Romney's now peaking, based on Obama's horrible debate performance and IMHO the Libya shilly-shallying.

The winning tactic for one side or the other would seem to be to lock their guy away in a cabin in the mountains and hope the other guy sticks his foot in his mouth.
 
Romney +1.2

Ball is still in his court. This was not a bit of noise. It's a real bounce and it has staying power.
 
Recently, I discovered a website - called Predictwise.com - which aggregates prediction markets (IEM, Intrade, BetFair). Here's where things stand there:

Obama 62.0%
Romney 38.0%
 
DavidJames said:
Serious question...Why should I care about betting sites like those.
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Because people can say what they want but when they put money on the line they tend to poll much more accurately. Prediction markets have the potential to be more telling (perhaps much more so) than other polling methods.
 
DavidJames said:
Serious question...Why should I care about betting sites like those.
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People who put their own money down on things are more likely to be informed about the current state of affairs than the average schmuck.

However, these are a secondary indicator compared to the polls themselves; there will always be a certain fluctuation based on confidence, and sometimes that confidence will be misplaced. I've quoted this figure before, but InTrade closed at 75%-25% that Obamacare's individual mandate would be struck down. So it's nowhere near infallible.

(That circumstance did, however, revolve entirely around a single person changing their opinion from the opinion they were 'expected' to hold, which made it an extremely dangerous bet. Wise bettors would have probably stayed away from that particular pair of markets -- if only because predicting the majority among 9 people is significantly more volatile than, say, predicting the majority among 300,000,000.)
 
Romney +1.4 It's a head of steam. The longer it lasts the more likely Romney will win.
 
MattusMaximus said:
Agreed. Without Ohio, Romney can't win.
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I agree that Ohio is crucial for Romney.

However, an Obama win in Ohio is one of the plausible ways in which an electoral tie could occur. Obama takes OH, MI, WI, PA, & NH. Romney takes FL, NC, VA, IA, CO, & NV. This makes it 269 - 269, which would likely mean a Romney/Biden administration.
 
Why do I get the chills at the concept of seeing either Obama/Ryan or Romney/Biden? Unlikely as it may be....
 
mikedenk said:
I agree that Ohio is crucial for Romney.

However, an Obama win in Ohio is one of the plausible ways in which an electoral tie could occur. Obama takes OH, MI, WI, PA, & NH. Romney takes FL, NC, VA, IA, CO, & NV. This makes it 269 - 269, which would likely mean a Romney/Biden administration.
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Romney/Biden? :jaw-dropp

I don't think the country could handle that many gaffes!

Incidentally, according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com, it looks as if things might be turning around for President Obama. In the last few days all of the indicators have begun to turn around for him (check Nate's graphs on the right-hand side of his page), and he is polling more strongly in CO as well as OH. Personally, I am particularly curious to see what happens in VA.

Also, over at Predictwise.com (the aggregate of the IEM, Intrade, and Betfair prediction markets):

Obama 63.4%
Romney 36.3%
 
Grizzly Bear said:
Why do I get the chills at the concept of seeing either Obama/Ryan or Romney/Biden? Unlikely as it may be....
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I don't know... part of me thinks it actually might be a good thing for the nation.

Has there ever been a split ticket like that in U.S. history?
 
RandFan said:
Romney +1.4 It's a head of steam. The longer it lasts the more likely Romney will win.
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You need to graph across all of last week's polls and wait to see the numbers from Sat/Sun which will be available starting probably Tue/Wed. Romney peaked at about +2 and has been 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.4, and 1.3 today. He's holding steady at that number and not moving. If he's not moving, then those states that RCP moved into Undecided (MI, WI, PA) will not go GOP. It's still all about the Electoral College. Those states didn't trend as much as the national vote did and it's a little generous of RCP to move them all to Undecided. A half-point more in a couple of them and they're equal to the leads Romney has in all of the "Leans Romney" states.

I think he'll (Romney) hold a one point lead in polls up to the second debate. If he knocks it out of the park, he may gain a few more. If Obama comes out firm and presidential and calls him on his waffling, then the small edge for Romney will dissipate.
 
Grizzly Bear said:
Why do I get the chills at the concept of seeing either Obama/Ryan or Romney/Biden? Unlikely as it may be....
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Actually, I can see Obama/Ryan as something less than disastrous. Romney/Biden wouldn't work. Mitt would just ignore him while Joe would work to undermine him on the Hill. Either 4 years of out-and-out cat fight or, alternatively, Joe would just quit.
 
MattusMaximus said:
I don't know... part of me thinks it actually might be a good thing for the nation.

Has there ever been a split ticket like that in U.S. history?
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Didn't we originally have the runner up of the presidential election serve as vice president?
 
I'm surprised Obama is sooo polarizing. The people that hate him.... really hate him.
 
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