Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

Neally said:
AND? The Associated Press-GfK was a nationwide poll. Look no further.
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Do you believe oversampling a region where Romney is heavily favored will lead to a truly representative sample?

Leave your partisan snark behind, look at the topline of the polls you post, and decide for yourself whether or not these results match what is claimed in the article or abstract. Would you only look at the abstract of a scientific paper, believing everything it says, without looking at the data? The poll, for me, was inconclusive.

Neally said:
Certainly more polls would improve reliability, but the cited poll was a nationwide poll.
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Probably the most sensible thing you've said. Of course, I doubt that will happen until after election day when we will know for sure who voted for whom. :)
 
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Neally said:
Certainly more polls would improve reliability, but the cited poll was a nationwide poll.
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It may be accurate, we won't know until more polling is done, but it could still be an outlier. Considering the historical gender gap I'm tending to consider outlier the likelier choice, at least for now.
 
Neally said:
http://ap-gfkpoll.com/uncategorized/findings-from-our-latest-poll
Why? Because the GOP hates women, supports their rape, doesn't want them to have contraceptives, and all the other anti-women talking points the left wants you to believe? Guess women aren't a stupid as you might imagine and are seeing through those talking points.
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Let's no tar the entire GOP, just their platform and select individuals, okay? If I was Obama, I would've gotten Moderate Mitt to disavow the GOP platform on national TV during the second debate. We don't know what he'll actually do, but we do know what their platform says and that's sufficient to worry women voters, I feel.

And take a look at those select individuals! What was once a hope to take over the upper house has now turned into a battle to hold onto the same minority they have without losing ground. They've lost the Senate seat in Missouri and Indiana is going to likely follow. (And Mitt's smug mug is on TV supporting the bible-thumping misogynist in Indiana - ads have been running for a couple of weeks.)
 
Neally said:
So present your evidence or cite a source that supports your claim that the poll design was faulty.
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It's on the site you linked, download the topline for the poll.

Neally said:
http://ap-gfkpoll.com/uncategorized/findings-from-our-latest-poll
Why? Because the GOP hates women, supports their rape, doesn't want them to have contraceptives, and all the other anti-women talking points the left wants you to believe? Guess women aren't a stupid as you might imagine and are seeing through those talking points.
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So yes, all that is absurd. What's also absurd is taking one poll, with less than ideal sampling, and saying that the gap is erased. Also claiming these are just "talking points" is a little silly. I don't see many saying Republicans support rape, but I do see some Republican politicians with some very curious ideas about rape.

You (and voters) can decide whether or not they represent you or the Republican party.
 
In the prediction markets, Romney is surging...

... downwards! ;)

Predictwise
Obama 64.5%
Romney 35.8%

Ouch.

Is this because of the flap over Morlock's "God intends rape" comments and Romney's refusal to un-endorse the douchebag? I haven't been watching the news lately, so I've no idea if I've missed something.
 
Was the single poll indicating Romney Gaining among women taken before or after the Indiana controversy broke?
IMHO whatever momentum Romney might have had among women has been brough to a screeching halt by the "God's Will" statement.
 
Neally said:
That just gives the design. YOU claimed it's faulty. YOU support that claim.
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I've already posted why I thought the sampling was poor. This is where you respond with your counter argument. If you agree that it was heavily based in one region, and that might skew the poll, then I guess we have nothing further to discuss, do we?

edit: I should have said, in my previous post (I did in my first) that I believe poll is inconclusive when compared to the claim that Romney is evening the gap with women voters and that Obama is doing the same with men, as is claimed in the article. It's an OKAY poll otherwise, they even weigh by age, race, and gender. And I never claimed the entire poll was faulty. I think I used the words "less than ideal sample" to describe it.

Most polls have "less than ideal" samples. Most polls should be taken with a grain of salt. But you should always look at the data first. Probably the best way is average out polls across the board, as sites like RCP/538 do.
 
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SkepticalDrew said:
I've already posted why I thought the sampling was poor.
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You mean, "oversampling a region"? That is a fallacy by assertion.

This is where you respond with your counter argument.
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No, this is where you support your claim that the region was over sampled. It could be over sampled, under sampled or accurately sampled at 38%. You claim is that it is over sampled and thus the poll results are inaccurately skewed. Back up your claim with data to prove it.
 
Neally said:
http://ap-gfkpoll.com/uncategorized/findings-from-our-latest-poll
Why? Because the GOP hates women, supports their rape, doesn't want them to have contraceptives, and all the other anti-women talking points the left wants you to believe? Guess women aren't a stupid as you might imagine and are seeing through those talking points.
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Yeah.. . except referring to anti-woman policies and rhetoric as "talking points" doesn't make them false.

Yes, I find it hard to believe that Romney is polling even with Obama among women.
 
MattusMaximus said:
In the prediction markets, Romney is surging...

... downwards! ;)

Predictwise
Obama 64.5%
Romney 35.8%

Ouch.

Is this because of the flap over Morlock's "God intends rape" comments and Romney's refusal to un-endorse the douchebag? I haven't been watching the news lately, so I've no idea if I've missed something.
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The Indiana Senate race has swung dramatically in Joe Donnelly's favor in the last couple of days. The two could be related, I suppose?
 
dudalb said:
Was the single poll indicating Romney Gaining among women taken before or after the Indiana controversy broke?
IMHO whatever momentum Romney might have had among women has been brough to a screeching halt by the "God's Will" statement.
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If it's the one Neally cited, the article says (my emphasis), "The AP-GfK poll, taken Friday through Tuesday, shows Romney pulling even with Obama among women at 47-47 after lagging by 16 points a month earlier."
 
JoeTheJuggler said:
Yeah.. . except referring to anti-woman policies and rhetoric as "talking points" doesn't make them false.
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I'm sure the dem strategists would be very pleased that you have bought into their rhetoric then. Fortunately it seems many women haven't.
 
Neally said:
You mean, "oversampling a region"? That is a fallacy by assertion.

No, this is where you support your claim that the region was over sampled. It could be over sampled, under sampled or accurately sampled at 38%. You claim is that it is over sampled and thus the poll results are inaccurately skewed. Back up your claim with data to prove it.
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Do you believe 38% of voters are located in the South? Do I even need to post voter turnout numbers by state/region? Here's a hint, because it's super easy to search for yourself - it's not 38%.
 
Neally said:
I'm sure the dem strategists would be very pleased that you have bought into their rhetoric then. Fortunately it seems many women haven't.
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Yeah, the Dems just invented that stuff out of whole cloth. I don't even know what gave them the idea.
 
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