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Richard Wiseman

And? Can you carry on and make the point that you want to make or is it as trite as "people are people"?
I think this article (“Ernst Florenz Friedrich Chladni (1756-1827) and the Origins of Modern Meteorite Research") makes my point about scientists not always adhering to science: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1996M&PS...31..545M. Ersby, who posted the above link, disagrees, but consider some of its findings:

Chladni "wrote when he finished his book he hesitated to publish it because of the hostile reactions to be expected . . . most savants of the Age of Enlightenment came to regard the very idea of objects from the sky as flouting both common sense and the laws of physics. An origin outside the atmosphere was not even to be considered." (p. 551)

"At about 9:30 P.M. on 1790 July 24, a brilliant fireball with a long, luminous trail was seen for nearly 50 seconds over a large area of southern France. An enormous explosion heralded the fall of stones over several villages in the vicinity of Barbotan and Agen. Excited stories circulated widely and Pierre Berthelon (1741-1799), editor of the Journal des Sciences utiles in Montpelier, published reports of the event. Word of his accounts reached his friend, Jean F.B. Saint-Amans (1748-1831), who said later that he sought to match this absurdity with an authentic act by demanding an official testimonial to the event. Much to his surprise, Saint-Amans received a notarized deposition in short order, signed by a mayor and his deputy, stating that at least 300 citizens had witnessed the fall. Seeing the deposition as nothing but new proof of the credulity of country people, Saint-Amans induced Berthelon (1791:228) to write: 'How sad, is it not, to see a whole municipality attempt to certify the truth of folk tales . . . the philosophical reader will draw his own conclusions regarding this document, which attests to an apparently false fact, a physically impossible phenomena.'" (p. 555)

Domenico Tata, Professor of Physics and Mathematics at Naples, "was convinced of the authenticity of this (June 1794 Siena meteorite) fall, and said he had intended to publish a full description of it but was dissuaded by friends who warned him that he would be ridiculed by 'Savants' and, worse yet, by 'Half-Savants who are the more to be feared." (p. 560)

"But Chladni did write his book. Possessing no positive evidence for falling stones and irons, he had proposed his radical hypotheses at a time when they ran counter to the accepted laws of physics and when witnesses to actual falls were withholding their evidence for fear of ridicule." (p. 585)

Now, Ersby points out that Chladni did in fact write his book, that not all scientists of that era were so close-minded about meteorites, and that only a few -- not all -- museums threw out their collections of meteorites. However, looking at the big picture, I don't think that's the way science is supposed to work. Does anyone disagree?
 
Now, Ersby points out that Chladni did in fact write his book, that not all scientists of that era were so close-minded about meteorites, and that only a few -- not all -- museums threw out their collections of meteorites. However, looking at the big picture, I don't think that's the way science is supposed to work. Does anyone disagree?


Do you contend that scientific methodology and the attitude of scientists towards the process of science hasn't changed in the past, what, 200 years? Or are you bringing up a situation that isn't remotely relevant to contemporary science and scientists for some other reason?
 
Do you contend that scientific methodology and the attitude of scientists towards the process of science hasn't changed in the past, what, 200 years? Or are you bringing up a situation that isn't remotely relevant to contemporary science and scientists for some other reason?
He's whining about how science is scaring those millions if not bazillions of scientists who are scared to write papers about his pet woo beliefs therefore the lack of any actual evidence of his pet woo is due to big bad science and not due to the fact that it is complete and utter garbage.
 
Now, Ersby points out that Chladni did in fact write his book, that not all scientists of that era were so close-minded about meteorites, and that only a few -- not all -- museums threw out their collections of meteorites. However, looking at the big picture, I don't think that's the way science is supposed to work. Does anyone disagree?

If anyone wants to read what I actually wrote, and not Rodney's self-serving version, they can read the thread here

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=182529
 
I think this article (“Ernst Florenz Friedrich Chladni (1756-1827) and the Origins of Modern Meteorite Research") makes my point about scientists not always adhering to science:

...SNIP...

So your point was as trite as "people are people". Don't know why you didn't just come out and say it rather than trying to make it seem that you had some earth-shattering point to make.
 
Now, Ersby points out that Chladni did in fact write his book, that not all scientists of that era were so close-minded about meteorites, and that only a few -- not all -- museums threw out their collections of meteorites. However, looking at the big picture, I don't think that's the way science is supposed to work. Does anyone disagree?

That's a good question. Which components of science are responsible for its overwhelming success (we are agreed on it's success, I think, otherwise you wouldn't really care whether your beliefs were part of the club)? Does the possibility of ridicule drive people to gather evidence, or do they give up? Would researchers go to the bother of gathering evidence if they didn't have to in order to receive a pat on the head? What are the products of a process where any idea is considered plausible? Are fields where this happens characterised by rapid progress or have they remained stagnant for 200 years (think homeopathy)?

Is there anything more satisfying than the ability to say "I told you so"?

Linda
 
The point is that scientists are human beings who, like non-scientists, tend to turn deaf ears to evidence that contradict the conventional wisdom. So, while there may be a strong consensus among scientists that a particular theory is incontrovertible, that may not be the case.
If you had just said this in the first place then we might have saved a lot of time.

I completely agree. Scientists are fallible humans and so science is not perfect. It may often occur that consensus on a theory is more herding instinct than confluence of evidence.

Or perhaps a little from column A and a little from column B.
 
The point is that scientists are human beings who, like non-scientists, tend to turn deaf ears to evidence that contradict the conventional wisdom. So, while there may be a strong consensus among scientists that a particular theory is incontrovertible, that may not be the case.

It is a frequent occurrence in medicine that a particular treatment which is thought to be useful will turn out not to be. And the typical course of events is that some doctors/researchers make the suggestion, their idea receives varying responses from general acceptance to general ignoring of the idea to overt hostility, those doctors/researchers perform experiments which seem to support their idea, more people become intrigued by the idea and perform additional research, and eventually evidence of a kind which is reasonably reliable and valid is produced in support of their idea whereby practice generally changes. Of course, it is also typical (and far more frequent), that the research shows that the idea is without merit, but that's not particularly relevant.

The thing is, while scientists may scoff when the idea is presented with insufficient evidence to determine whether it may be true, once sufficient evidence has been gathered, people change their mind. And this isn't some sort of arbitrary threshold, as the basis of Evidence Based Medicine is specifying the quality and quantity of information which have been found to be associated with ideas which are likely or unlikely to be true.

Evidence is not information which is sufficient to support someone's beliefs. It is information which is sufficient to change the mind of someone who starts from a position of doubt. It isn't a sign of weakness that scientists will doubt, it's a sign of strength. Every example you give of scientists doubting and then changing their minds when presented with more and better evidence, is an indication that science is working, not that it is failing.

Linda
 
If you had just said this in the first place then we might have saved a lot of time.

I completely agree. Scientists are fallible humans and so science is not perfect. It may often occur that consensus on a theory is more herding instinct than confluence of evidence.

Or perhaps a little from column A and a little from column B.

I think it should be pointed out that there isn't really such a thing as "consensus" in the way that it is being used in this thread. There isn't a sort of central authority which determines which ideas are to be considered true and which are false, or any sort of obligation for scientists to fall into step with said authority. I agree that habit, personalities, and job security can influence opinion. But those factors can also strongly influence people to challenge the status quo. After all, nobody gains recognition and status for treading on tired ground. And if you spend any time in medical rounds, you would discover that disagreement is the habit.

Linda
 
If you had just said this in the first place then we might have saved a lot of time.

I completely agree. Scientists are fallible humans and so science is not perfect. It may often occur that consensus on a theory is more herding instinct than confluence of evidence.

Or perhaps a little from column A and a little from column B.
To echo Darat. How trite.
 
I completely agree. Scientists are fallible humans and so science is not perfect. It may often occur that consensus on a theory is more herding instinct than confluence of evidence.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
 
The thing is, while scientists may scoff when the idea is presented with insufficient evidence to determine whether it may be true, once sufficient evidence has been gathered, people change their mind.
Yes, but the problem comes when people are intimidated from setting forth evidence because it may be detrimental to their careers or reputations. That clearly happened with regard to meteorites.
 
Yes, but the problem comes when people are intimidated from setting forth evidence because it may be detrimental to their careers or reputations. That clearly happened with regard to meteorites.

The information Robin presented demonstrated otherwise. And how would it inhibit the presentation of evidence? If you've got evidence, then you get to rub it in the face of all those naysayers.

Linda
 
Can I say what this logic sounds like?

1. Scientists sometimes disbelieve things that turns out to be true.
2. Scientists disbelieve theory X
Conclusion: Theory X will turn out to be true.

If you are not saying this, please be specific about what you mean.
 
Can I say what this logic sounds like?

1. Scientists sometimes disbelieve things that turns out to be true.
2. Scientists disbelieve theory X
Conclusion: Theory X will turn out to be true.


"Alas, to wear the mantle of Galileo..."
 

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