The false assumption with illegal downloading is that the downloader would have bought the record if they could not have downloaded the album
That's the way I see this issue as well.
There haven't been any conclusive studies done to prove that file sharing has lead to decline in record sales.
I would think the decline of sales is a combonation of many factors.
First, and formost, the prices of CD's have gone *up* while the cost to manufacture those CD's have gone *down*
Don't believe me?
This book will teach you how to make and sell your very own albums. There are hundreds of self produced and self distributed artists out there that are, while being relatively poor, still creating wealth using this system.
The cost I would pay for music is disproportionate to the cost that has gone into that record. Average margin in the US would be what, 20%? There is no way one can justify upwards of 100% markup. The market is
obviously not baring this, as evidenced by declining record sales.
Second, the quality of music is dropping quickly. Whenever one band goes out of style (Backstreet Boys!) another pops up to take it's place. When that form gets tiresome, another form rises up to take it's place. A few companies are guiding this push, and they are destroying music. By giving literally talentless people with a certain image immense record contracts, writing their music for them, altering their voices using digital methods to make it appear as if they can sing, and then dressing them up like puppets, we somewhat lose what music is "supposed" to be about.
Take a look at the manner of albums coming out today. Most artists, or non-artists are forced to compile 10-15 songs. Usually 2 or 3 of these is quality, and the rest is obvious filler. In my (extremely vast) collection of music, i've only encountered 10 or so albums which I would consider golden all the way through, without filler of any sort. Half a century ago, artists routinely would put out only a few tunes at a time. These would be great songs, great music. Every once in a while, a great collection of music be put out. In the 60's and 70's, album rock evolved. Instead of a few hits, we get a lot of music at all at once.
Now, everyone is forced to take this sort of path. What it means for garbage pop boybands is more money, what it means for serious artists is a series of hurdles they constantly need to jump over. It's all to common to put out something absolutely brilliant (To Venus and Back!) and have the rest of your albums suffer from not quite achieving what you did in that break-through album, except for one or two tunes.
Anyway, I for one and going to refuse to buy CDs until I am allowed to choose what I want to buy, on an individual basis, and those songs I do chose aren't marked up several times what they took to produce, package, market, and distribute.