RFC: Bazant and Zhou Simple Analysis refuted

I'd say that any structural engineer worth his salt would want to know what possible design flaws lead to collapse initiation, if any.
Absolutely. And so far the total number of structural engineers who doubt that the buildings collapsed without bombs is near zero.

Lots of kooks without any engineering experience with tall buildings whatsoever are questioning it though...
 
Myriad asks:

Collapse initiation in both buildings is perhaps the most profound engineering question there is.

Millions of follow human beings have sincere questions regarding the suspicious circumstances behind the collapses.

I'd say that any structural engineer worth his salt would want to know what possible design flaws lead to collapse initiation, if any.

Within this context, how is it possible that no photographic record is kept of the core columns from the collapse initiation zone?

Why do you ask that I share your "faith"?

Why not just show me some of these buckled columns?

Possibly the most fascinatiing structural failures ever and we can't photograph the 100 or so pieces of metal that initiated them?

"Mangled" columns are no longer an excuse, for the columns, both core and perimeter, were remarkably well-preserved.

Call me a skeptic.

And 6 years on, you ask why I don't share your faith?

MT,

Your point has been made. I think it's worth starting a new thread on collapse initiation. However, I would appreciate if we could focus on the OT here. I.e. overload ratio, strain energies, within the boundary of B&Z's primary assumption.
 
I'm sorry to interrupt your thread again Gregory, i'll make this brief.

Major_Tom said:
Within this context, how is it possible that no photographic record is kept of the core columns from the collapse initiation zone?

Why do you pretend not to know the answer to this when you clearly do? Gravy has repeatedly pointed out that only four columns could be identified. Unless you expect to see a video of the core columns from inside the towers at the moment of collapse how else do you propose such evidence be gathered?.
 
Collapse initiation in both buildings is perhaps the most profound engineering question there is.

Millions of follow human beings have sincere questions regarding the suspicious circumstances behind the collapses.

I'd say that any structural engineer worth his salt would want to know what possible design flaws lead to collapse initiation, if any.

Within this context, how is it possible that no photographic record is kept of the core columns from the collapse initiation zone?

Why do you ask that I share your "faith"?

Why not just show me some of these buckled columns?

Possibly the most fascinatiing structural failures ever and we can't photograph the 100 or so pieces of metal that initiated them?

"Mangled" columns are no longer an excuse, for the columns, both core and perimeter, were remarkably well-preserved.

Call me a skeptic.

And 6 years on, you ask why I don't share your faith?


No, I didn't ask why you don't share my evidence-based belief (which you insist on erroneously calling "faith," apparently in order to be provocative) in the competence of engineers. I already know why you don't.

What I asked is, if you don't believe that engineers (more specifically, a panel of 200 top engineers and other experts, inviting commentary and criticism by the rest of their community along the way) can arrive at a generally correct conclusion on the question of why a building collapse occurred, then on what do you rest your hopes that anyone can? If the people who design, build, and inspect skyscrapers are not competent, which you implied when you referred to them as "experts" and "authorities" in scare-quotes, then why shouldn't buildings fall for no known reason?

As for buckled columns in the collapse initiation zone, I've seen photographs showing, all told, hundreds of obviously buckled columns. (I regard any column as "buckled" if it is sufficiently bent that, if one end were aligned with an adjacent vertical member, the other end would be out of true by at least the cross-section width of the column, and thus no longer capable of supporting a vertical load in a space frame. Do you have a different definition of "buckled," and if so, what is it?) Experts who had an opportunity to actually measure the columns reported that thousands more that appear approximately straight in photographs are in fact also buckled to that degree. So, I see photographs of many buckled columns, and I have no reason to believe that some of the columns from the collapse initiation zone would not be among them.

You want photos of individual columns post-collapse from specific positions, even though you know that matching the vast majority of the individual columns to their as-built position was not possible, and a clear explanation of the reasons why have been available to you in the NIST report. Sorry, that means nothing. I could ask every astronomer on earth to show me the far side of the moon through a telescope, and not one of them could do so. Should I conclude that the far side of the moon doesn't exist, or should I listen to their explanation of why it cannot be seen through a telescope from earth? What do you find faulty about NIST's explanation of why most columns could not be matched to their as-built positions in the structure?

@GregoryUrich: I sympathize with your desire to keep the thread on one topic, but after many pages of discussion of other related topics, that ship has sailed. And it wasn't skeptics who introduced those topics or made good "points" in them that are worthy of response. Fortunately, people seem to be having no trouble following the parallel lines of discussion here.

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
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I regard any column as "buckled" if it is sufficiently bent that, if one end were aligned with an adjacent vertical member, the other end would be out of true by at least the cross-section width of the column, and thus no longer capable of supporting a vertical load in a space frame. Do you have a different definition of "buckled," and if so, what is it?

"Buckled" of steel structure by definition means bent, twisted or crumpled up and is the key word of the NIST announced only cause/effect of the global collapse: The release of potential energy due to downward movement of the building mass above the buckled columns exceeded the strain energy that could be absorbed by the structure. Global collapse ensued.

Evidently a bent column does not result in much downward movement unless it is bent 180°! A twisted column does not result in any downward movement at all. A crumpled up up column, i.e. compressed into folds or creases, produce downward movement but stops when compression stops.

It is sad that NIST cannot produce any "buckled" column of the initiation zones, be it bent 180° or crumpled up, that would have produced downward motion. We are talking about 566 columns that must have "buckled" for the effect ... and none is found.
 
From NIST report - NISTNCSTAR1-6D chapter 5.2 - we learn:

"The aircraft impacted the north wall of WTC 1 at 8:46 a.m. … between Floor 93 and Floor 98. … The subsequent fires weakened structural subsystems, including the core columns, floors and exterior walls. The core displaced downward … At 100 min (at 10:28:18), the north, east, and west walls at Floor 98 carried 7 percent, 35 percent and 30 percent more gravity load loads … and the south wall and the core carried about 7 percent and 20 percent less loads, respectively., … At 10.28 a.m., 102 min after the aircraft impact, WTC1 began to collapse. … The release of potential energy due to downward movement of the building mass above the buckled columns exceeded the strain energy that could be absorbed by the structure. Global collapse ensued."

The highlighted items are not proven.


Hi Heiwa. The quote from NCSTAR above is oddly redacted, with text from a later paragraph inserted out of sequence and some important points removed. Here's the original, with the text pasted in from a later paragraph struck out, and the blanks filled in in blue:

"The aircraft impacted the north wall of WTC 1 at 8:46 a.m. The aircraft severed exterior columns and floors on the north side of the tower and core columns and floor members between Floor 93 and Floor 98. The subsequent fires weakened structural subsystems, including the core columns, floors and exterior walls. The core displaced downward, the floors sagged, and the south exterior wall bowed inward. At 100 min (at 10:28:18), the north, east, and west walls at Floor 98 carried 7 percent, 35 percent and 30 percent more gravity load loads than the state after impact and the south wall and the core carried about 7 percent and 20 percent less loads, respectively. At 10.28 a.m., 102 min after the aircraft impact, WTC1 began to collapse.

The sentence at the end, that you bolded, is actually from two pages later in the report.

This strange editing appears designed to convey several false ideas about what NIST actually said in the paragraph.

- It omitted all mention of the damage caused by the airplane impact, creating the false impression that NIST is attributing the effects that follow solely to "the subsequent fires."

- It omits the sagging of the floor and the buckling of the wall, creating the false impression that the downward displacement of the core was the individual initiating event, instead of occurring along with other changes in the structure. Actually, the report is quite clear that the instability that initiated the collapse "started at the center of the south wall and rapidly progressed horizontally to the sides." (Pg. 314)

- It omits the phrase "than the state after impact" from the section pasted in from a later paragraph, creating the false impression that the figures given from increased loads were increases over the original building loads, instead of increases over the already increased and unbalanced loads experienced as a result of the impact damage.

- It inserts and appends sentences from later paragraphs, out of sequence, obfuscating the five-stage sequence that the report actually delineates very clearly.

NIST suggests that the potential energy of the mass above was released when all columns in the initiation zone simultaneosuly failed. No evidence for that. It is clear from all evidence that the mass above moved when all visible columns below were intact!


The edited version you posted suggests that, yes. But the original report says:

Instability started at the center of the south wall and rapidly progessed horizontally toward the sides. As a result of the buckling of the south wall, the south wall was significantly unloaded (Fig 5-3), redistributing its load to the softened core through the hat truss and to the south side of the east and west walls through the spandrels. ... The section of the building above the impact zone tilted to the south (observed at about 8°, Table 5-2) as column instability progressed rapidly from the south wall to the adjacent east and west walls (see Fig. 5-8), resulting inn increased gravity load on the core columns.

That is not a simultaneous failure, though it was a rapidly progressing one. Why was the paragraph edited to suggest something that the original report did not suggest?

It is then assumed that all the potential energy thus released and transformed into kinetic energy then IMPACTED other structure. No evidence for that.

And it is only if there is an IMPACT that strain energy of structure is of interest.


Kinetic energy and strain energy are relevant factors as long as there is movement, which there was, specifically an 8° tilt, in NIST's Event 5. "Impact" is not mentioned in the NCSTAR chapter being referenced here, so no "assumption" of impact was made. It's not NIST's fault that the edited paragraph you posted rearranged the text to juxtapose a statement regarding movement of the structure, and consequent kinetic and strain energies, with the fire-weakening effects they describe in Events 3 and 4.

The above error on one page of the NIST report disqualifies the 10 000 other pages.


Who edited the report to introduce those errors, and why? I'd say that disqualifies the person who moved the words around, rather than the actual report.

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
"Buckled" of steel structure by definition means bent, twisted or crumpled up and is the key word of the NIST announced only cause/effect of the global collapse: The release of potential energy due to downward movement of the building mass above the buckled columns exceeded the strain energy that could be absorbed by the structure. Global collapse ensued.


Several engineering glossaries I consulted all defined "buckle" the same way: "To bend under compression." None specify any minimum angle of bending for the term to be applicable.

Most of the columns were measurably bent, many of them to a degree that's easily visible even in photographs. So, there are plenty of photographs of buckled columns.

Evidently a bent column does not result in much downward movement unless it is bent 180°!


What nonsense. A few minutes of elementary trig tell me that a column that's buckled into a circular arc so that it is phi degrees out of true where phi <= 45° (hence forming an arc of angle 2*phi with a radius of curvature of L * tan(2*phi) where L is the original column length) results in downward movement of at least L * (1 - cos(phi)). The column is shortened by a factor of cos (phi). If one end is fixed to the vertical the downward movement is increased to L * sin (phi) * sin (2*phi), with lateral movement of L * sin (phi) * cos (2*phi). Less uniform bends would have larger effects.

It is sad that NIST cannot produce any "buckled" column of the initiation zones, be it bent 180° or crumpled up, that would have produced downward motion. We are talking about 566 columns that must have "buckled" for the effect ... and none is found.


If you really think that a column must be bent 180 degrees or crumpled up to be buckled, then it's no wonder that NIST cannot produce any that satisfy you. The problem is simply that you misunderstand what "buckled" means.

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
yes you are wasting time because you have no evidence

Anyone remember the opening topic?

I'll give some clues. It's not controlled demolition. It's not any and all errors in NIST. It's not opinions about other members. If you want to talk about these, PLEASE START NEW THREADS.

Here are some new issues related to the OT:

My derivation of Pdyn has a mistake resulting in an incorrectly low overload ratio. I incorrectly applied the 1/2 energy factor to only the potential energy components and not the strain energy.

I accept MT's arguments regarding Bazant's failure mode and initiation being incorrect, but I will deal with them in the introduction and discussion. I do this because the Bazant and Zhou "simple analysis" model and conclusions will most likely be refuted on their own without challenging every assumption.

Newtons Bit's strain energy calculations seem to have an error giving only 1/2 the strain energies. His derivation uses Pi/12 = 30 degrees, but Pi/12 = 15 degress.

I think these two issues will essentially cancel each other out. However, there are other issues regarding strain energies and I know Tony has some comments on this. Maybe we could first try to deal with the strain energies and then I can fix the two known issues and see where we land.
Yep, and you are attacking a model because you can not find silent RDX, thermite evidence, or real facts to support your failed ideas on 9/11. Yep, you are attacking a model! You could just email those guys so they can be happy you are not a peer. Your peers are 9/11 truth. Wow

Yes you have given up on RDX, it is too noisy (no evidence), too much blast (no blast evidence on steel), too much fantasy. So you wrote a paper to attack a model, and you do not even have a clue how much weight a single floor can hold. Have you talked to Robertson about this; I mean with you and your peer reviewed paper, he should talk to you?
Have you talked to the Washington Post or New York Times?
Have you done anything? With evidence like this, a simple model may be wrong. You should have something! But let me explain, the model is useful for a few reasons and you have failed to fine one of them. Failure is yours, you have failed to make this public in a big way, you have failed to find your silent explosives, and remember the big problem! Jones woke up one day 4 years after 9/11 and made up thermite as he was dropping Cinderblocks 10 feet to simulate the concrete in the WTC being dustified! Cool
 
Evidently I do not quote several pages of unproven observations - just some relevant ones. NIST tries to convey the message that 'buckling' was sudden and everywhere in the 4 000 m² large intitiation area, height of which for WTC1 - subject of my article - is not given. And NIST intentionally leaves 'buckling' vague to mislead the readers. And this strange buckling of columns shall cause release of potential energy of the mass above.

However, when I look at videos of WTC1 the roof moves downward several meters ... and no visible columns are 'buckled'. And none is found in the rubble.

And this release of potential energy - roof moving down several meters - is very slow!! It takes a couple of seconds. But suddenly the mass above the initiation zone explodes ... and the roof falls very quick.

But no real sign of any buckled columns at that moment.

And what the amount of potential energy released has to do with the strain energy in the intact structure is beyond me. NIST fails completey to explain what happens with the potential energy after it was released! It becomes kinetic energy ... and then what? An impact? Not seen anaywhere. And this little kinetic energy destroys the whole tower?

I would expect it to be arrested (consumed by the 'buckling' of columns) and diverted and absorbed by the intact structure and that the mass above rested on it with some lose parts falling down beside.
 
This strange editing appears designed to convey several false ideas about what NIST actually said in the paragraph.
Of course it was, because Heiwa is a liar as are the rest of the charlatans and frauds that make up the "truth" movement.
 
Isn't the degree of rotation for the middle hinge twice the top or bottom? That would give us a factor of 4Pi/6 (using 30 deg).

You only use half the rotation of the total on the middle hinge as it takes half the work to rotate it as the top and bottom hinges.

If you want to get as accurate as you can for the strain energy from the plastic hinges - ignoring the fact that 1/3rd of the exterior columns have a splce at a plastic hinge - I recommend using 6 degrees of rotation at the hinges. The top and bottom hinges will rotate 6 degrees when the middle hinge rotates 12 degrees. 12 degrees is about the limit that a room-temperature hot-rolled shape can undergo before it begins to tear. That's 0.4188 radians total (you should check that :D).

It is worth noting that the exterior columns that showed large amounts of bending inwards did so only because they were hot. If they were cold, they wouldn't be able to bend as far as they did without breaking. And if they were cold, they wouldn't have bent inwards at any noticeable degree.
 
Of course it was, because Heiwa is a liar as are the rest of the charlatans and frauds that make up the "truth" movement.
You think that you, myriad, and especially Heiwa could take it to a new thread, or ressurect one of the ones that showed lie of all this crap years ago?
Better yet, put the ijits on ignore.

Next derail will get reported.
 
Most of the columns were measurably bent, many of them to a degree that's easily visible even in photographs. So, there are plenty of photographs of buckled columns.

Verifiably untrue.


You've captured the essense of the misunderstanding.

This is the untruth that the Bazant model relies upon.

This is the untruth that you require to explain collapse initiation.



Nobody has any excuse but laziness not to verify for themselves whether the above statement is true or not.
 
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Most of the core columns recovered were significantly deformed, which made it difficult to select undeformed regions to harvest test specimens from. Even the relatively straight sections were often slightly bent.
NIST NCSTAR 1-3D "Mechanical properties of structural steel," page 48 (82 in the PDF).

Photos? Sure. The first image I found, picking a site at random from a search on "photographs wtc columns", was this: http://911research.wtc7.net/wtc/arch/docs/image5.jpg Ignore the obviously buckled I-beams; the issue is core columns, like the one running horizontally behind the workman. Lay a straightedge against the edges of that column. Is it straight?

No bent columns here:
1301247955c05aa48d.jpg

Oh, wait...

Tom, I look forward to your verification of the untruth of the statement, "Most of the columns were measurably bent, many of them to a degree that's easily visible even in photographs. So, there are plenty of photographs of buckled columns."

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
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Heiwa,

My conclusion is that collapse initiation can be proved in 1d only if there is initial movement and a homogenous force during a distance h (of a story), if there is no initial movement it is impossible. Since it is believed that it was a slow process one could use v1>0 in the homogenous 1d model. But for a more realistic model, in which the force grows and drops it is impossible. even with a small v1>0. The 1d papers that show that the collapse continues are not able to prove initiation, they have to assume it. I agree with you.
 
I like Gurich's paper about overload caused by the mass above on the structure below.

The mass above is of course a hotch potch of structural items so it easiest just to look at one of them and apply the theory to it, e.g. core column #501

It is an H-beam with two flanges 17x3.5 inch connected by a 2.2x12.6 inch web.

In metric terms the flanges are 430x90 mm and the web is 56x320 mm. The cross area is about 950 cm², i.e. the column is very solid. It weighs 750 kgs/m. It may carry as much as 700 tons transmitted to it from the floors above, i.e. each floor above transmits about 50 tons to the column through bolted connections.

The compressive stress in this core column at floors 94-98 is then abt 736 kgs/cm² or 74 MPa or 30% of the yield stress of the steel. The (smallest) moment of inertia I of this section is about 120 000 cm4 and its radius of gyration is of the order 35 cms. With a free length of 350 cms the slenderness ration is 10! Removing three floors as support and the free length is 1 400 cms and the slenderness ratio is still only 40! The thick steel plates, 56 and 90 mm cannot buckle under any circumstance when the compressive stress is only 30% of yield stress even if the temperature is 500°C.

Anyway our humble experts at NIST suggest that a part of this column 'buckles' - probably it bends - in the initiation zone and then disappears (none has been found) so that the upper, top part - 700 tons - most of it floors bolted to it, drops down on the lower part - and hits it with an impact force!

NIST thus assumes that the upper part of one column hits the lower part of the same column without missing it. What happens then? I would assume that most bolted floor connections of the upper part shear off due to the impact.

And that should be the end of it. Hostile comments are always welcome as the houris await me in Paradise.

PS There are many photos of a woman standing waving on floor 93 of WTC 1 at the hole in the North wall. Not far behind her, inside WTC1 is core column #501.
 
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PS There are many photos of a woman standing waving on floor 93 of WTC 1 at the hole in the North wall. Not far behind her, inside WTC1 is core column #501.


...and WTC 1 was still standing at that point.

Ooops.
 
...and WTC 1 was still standing at that point.

Ooops.

The tragedy is that this woman apparently walked through the burning initiation zone inferno, according NIST, where red hot columns were being 'buckled' and walls were tipping, and she had no fear. And slowly the whole mass above dropped down and crushed her.
 

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