RFC: Bazant and Zhou Simple Analysis refuted

[Tony Szamboti]

I will do the calculations to support my stated estimate. Do you want to tell me what column size we're dealing with (location of the charges)?

Why don't we both do all of the outer core columns on the 50th floor. That would consist of all of the 500 and 1000 rows and the end columns of the 600, 700, 800, and 900 rows. You can get the columns cross sections at

http://wtcmodel.wikidot.com/start

For consistency in both our calculations why don't we use a moment arm of 72 inches below the weld.

Do you know how to calculate the moment of inertia or section modulus of the weld? If you don't you can do it with a calculator here

http://www.engineering.com/calculators/properties_of_welds_treated_as_lines.htm

 

[Tony Szamboti]

You can equate different sized explosives with different distances from elements by

scaled distance = R / [W^(1/3)]
W = weight of explosive
R = distance from object

Let's take a bomb of 1500lbs planted 2 feet away from the column in the basement. The column is roughly 6 feet deep so the bomb is 5 feet away from the centerline of the column.

It has a scaled distance of 5/[1500^(1/3)] = 0.437

What size of explosive would be needed to meet this equivalent and non-lethal effect placed against the face of a 5 foot deep core column? Let's use a distance of 2.5 feet

0.437 = 2.5 / [W^(1/3)]

W^(1/3) = 5.722

W = 187lb. That's 187lb of explosives that still doesn't do anything. Of course this is for a non shape charged. A shape charge would be vastly different, but that requires serious prep time and leave effects that would be easily noticed, namely in that the locations were the columns were severed there would be blast scoring, etc. The only thing we see in the pictures is columns broken at their welds, or built up box columns that have dissociated at their longitudinal welds.

I thought it was clear that I was talking about charges placed right on the column. Why do you want to talk about something different?

Are you saying that a charge placed five to six feet below the weld on the column you showed the other day could not have had that damage caused by a charge placed directly on its surface?

 

[pomeroo]

Oh, so that is why they later claimed that the amount they got was not sufficient, and they needed to use computer simulations to determine the temperatures seen by the steel, since there was very little physical evidence of high temperatures on the actual steel. What are you smoking?

When did NIST make this claim? Let's see your evidence.

 

[DGM]

Why don't we both do all of the outer core columns on the 98th floor. That would consist of all of the 500 and 1000 rows and the end columns of the 600, 700, 800, and 900 rows. You can get the columns cross sections at

http://wtcmodel.wikidot.com/start

For consistency in both our calculations why don't we use a moment arm of 72 inches below the weld.

Do you know how to calculate the moment of inertia or section modulus of the weld? If you don't you can do it with a calculator here

http://www.engineering.com/calculators/properties_of_welds_treated_as_lines.htm

Sure!
Is RDX OK? Did you have a standoff in mind? What did you have in mind for a "tamping" or should we skip that?

 

[einsteen]

I phoned NIST and spoke to Mike Newman, who explained that NIST had obtained all the steel it required.

I remember Jeff Hill called him also, it must be this mp3

http://www.shure.proboards19.com/index.cgi?board=911calls&action=display&thread=1192748469

If I remember it well he said that the core failed first. I thought that I never understood NIST's story but this makes sense, the core should fail first.

 

[Gravy]

How many photos of these columns were photographed and shown to the public?

Strange how you say you've looked at photos of hundreds of columns, yet you can't show us one that shows any signs of the effects of explosives or incendiaries.

Sixth time, Major Tom: how many core columns were able to be matched with as-built locations in the collapse initiation zones? I know. Do you, Major Tom? You'd better, if you're going to keep raising this issue.

You've had days to look this up. It's YOUR issue. Answer the question now.Or are you, like Tony Szamboti, that afraid of reality and learning?

 

[Gravy]

I remember Jeff Hill called him also, it must be this mp3

http://www.shure.proboards19.com/index.cgi?board=911calls&action=display&thread=1192748469

If I remember it well he said that the core failed first. I thought that I never understood NIST's story but this makes sense, the core should fail first.

einsteen, why is it acceptable to you to run away from your claims, as you did in that WTC 7 thread, and to pick up elsewhere as if nothing had happened? Is that mature behavior? Are you, like Major Tom and Tony Szamboti, that afraid of reality?

What is scaring you 9/11 deniers so much?

 

[WildCat]

I thought it was clear that I was talking about charges placed right on the column.

Except, of course, you have no evidence at all that there were any charges anywhere. And to do what you are suggesting would be quite the feat in a busy office building in use 24/7.


You're just wanking off on a fantasy.

 

[Gravy]

Are you saying that a charge placed five to six feet below the weld on the column you showed the other day could not have had that damage caused by a charge placed directly on its surface?

Show us where the blast damage occurred on that column, Tony Szamboti. No running, no hiding. Show us.

Or are you that afraid of reality?

 

[lisabob2]

I have recalculated Bazant and Zhou's overload ratio with the result that progressive collapse is not predicted by the model. Please see the article:

http://www.cool-places.0catch.com/docs/Overload.pdf

Any constructive comments would be appreciated.

I wouldn't count on any "constructive comments" from this crowd, it seems any evidence that challenges their beliefs is either lies or made up by loony scientist, who are out to get our innocent goverment. imagine anybody wanting to catch our "leaders" in something illegal? they gotta be commies or socialist!!

 

[pomeroo]

I remember Jeff Hill called him also, it must be this mp3

http://www.shure.proboards19.com/index.cgi?board=911calls&action=display&thread=1192748469

If I remember it well he said that the core failed first. I thought that I never understood NIST's story but this makes sense, the core should fail first.

Imagine the sheer stupidity of an oaf who calls 10,000 pages of analysis, simulations, diagrams, photos, graphs, etc., a "bogus" report. Where are the scientists and engineers all over the world who have found errors in it? Why does an ignoramus think he can challenge a study conducted by a thousand serious researchers without understanding anything about science? Seriously, the evil movement you serve makes no headway because it insults everyone's intelligence.

 

[pomeroo]

I wouldn't count on any "constructive comments" from this crowd, it seems any evidence that challenges their beliefs is either lies or made up by loony scientist, who are out to get our innocent goverment. imagine anybody wanting to catch our "leaders" in something illegal? they gotta be commies or socialist!!

And your evidence for the existence of your imaginary, mathematically-impossible conspiracy is...?

 

[pomeroo]

Oh, so that is why they later claimed that the amount they got was not sufficient, and they needed to use computer simulations to determine the temperatures seen by the steel, since there was very little physical evidence of high temperatures on the actual steel. What are you smoking?

We'll be waiting quite a while for your "evidence." In the meantime, try reading pgs. 86-89 in NIST NCSTAR 1, Chapter 6, "Learning From the Recovered Steel."

 

[Tony Szamboti]

Sure!
Is RDX OK? Did you have a standoff in mind? What did you have in mind for a "tamping" or should we skip that?

RDX is fine. I think the explosive would be placed very close if not right on the surface. I wouldn't use more than one inch of standoff distance. I do think any operation like this would tamp the explosive, so unless there is a reason not to, I would say the equivalent of one 50 lb. sand bag over the explosive sounds reasonable. This is only theoretical and I would like to see just how feasible it is so if we can skip how the tamping would be done we can get a feel for how much explosive it would take.

 

[Gravy]

Why don't we both do all of the outer core columns on the 50th floor.

In which tower did the collapses begin on the 50th floor? Right: neither.

Still waiting for you to show us how that smoke was perturbed – even a little bit – during the detonations that caused the south tower's east wall to continue bowing inward until it buckled, Tony.

Or do you believe in that multiple powerful explosives detonated and created no noise and no pressure wave at all? If so, please give us the formula. If not, please adjust your beliefs to match reality.

Fantasy or reality. Which will it be, mechanical engineer?

 

[Tony Szamboti]

We'll be waiting quite a while for your "evidence." In the meantime, try reading pgs. 86-89 in NIST NCSTAR 1, Chapter 6, "Learning From the Recovered Steel."

They also claim in the report that the amount of steel they got was too small a sample to be definitive. You should read the entire report.

 

[Tony Szamboti]

In which tower did the collapses begin on the 50th floor? Right: neither.

Still waiting for you to show us how that smoke was perturbed – even a little bit – during the detonations that caused the south tower's east wall to continue bowing inward until it buckled, Tony.

Or do you believe in that multiple powerful explosives detonated and created no noise and no pressure wave at all? If so, please give us the formula. If not, please adjust your beliefs to match reality.

Fantasy or reality. Which will it be, mechanical engineer?

I guess you couldn't imagine that I chose an intermediate floor well below the collapse zone so that we could then scale either way from there. As for the collapse zone, I guess you aren't reading what I am saying about that. I believe the collapse could have been initiated with thermal weakening and then on lower floors explosives could be used in the manner being discussed to keep the collapse moving. I really need to ask myself why I am even answering you.

 

[Gravy]

RDX is fine. I think the explosive would be placed very close if not right on the surface. I wouldn't use more than one inch of standoff distance.

Excellent. Here's your RDX. Explain how this matches your fantasy. Do it.

 

[Tony Szamboti]

Imagine the sheer stupidity of an oaf who calls 10,000 pages of analysis, simulations, diagrams, photos, graphs, etc., a "bogus" report. Where are the scientists and engineers all over the world who have found errors in it? Why does an ignoramus think he can challenge a study conducted by a thousand serious researchers without understanding anything about science? Seriously, the evil movement you serve makes no headway because it insults everyone's intelligence.

Were the conclusions of the NIST report written by a thousand serious researchers? The answer is no. It was only a much smaller number who wrote those conclusions. Your logic is poor Ron.

 

[Gravy]

I guess you couldn't imagine that I chose an intermediate floor well below the collapse zone so that we could then scale either way from there. As for the collapse zone, I guess you aren't reading what I am saying about that. I believe the collapse could have been initiated with thermal weakening and then on lower floors explosives could be used in the manner being discussed to keep the collapse moving. I really need to ask myself why I am even answering you.

Ah, so now you're on to the Dylan Avery theory. The collapses didn't start with explosives but had to be "helped along" by them. Ever wonder how the evil perps knew the collapses would start where they did in the first place, Tony?

So there were explosives on the floor immediately below the first floor to collapse. Show us in the videos when the explosives detonated there.

Next, present your calculations that show the collapses should have been arrested.

Or are you just making this up as you go along, as you do with everything else? Found that Larry Silverstein quote yet, mechanical engineer Szamboti?