Recession Deniers?

[timhau]

Hey guys, I predicted this current economic crisis back in 1940. Way to jump on the bandwagon everyone.

I don't believe you.

I was born in 1966, and because of the economic 43-year forecast I devised right then, I spent my first hours crying and wailing.

 

[bobrayner]

You still interested in that bet......

Bring it on

How much would you like to bet? (If you're really worried about hyperinflation eroding your winnings, I'm happy to accommodate you; perhaps you'd prefer XAU or something like that.)
By what date do you expect "nominal GDP for the G8" will drop 35%? Shall we say 18 months?
(I took the halfway point of your 30-40%, hope you don't mind).

 

[macdoc]

I don't recall saying the G8 but given that Japan is half way there and the US and Britain well on their way.

Is this aggregate of individual drops??

Let's say it will get 30% down from recession started Q1 2007 and sometime before first quarter 2011 -

 

[drkitten]

I don't recall saying the G8 but given that Japan is half way there and the US and Britain well on their way.

Is this aggregate of individual drops??

Aggregate of individual drops? So if every economy drops 5%, you get to sum all eight up to make 40%?

Or did you possible mean "average"?

 

[bobrayner]

I don't recall saying the G8

Your post of 18th February 2009 09:39 PM. You should be able to see it if you scroll back up the page a bit.

Is this aggregate of individual drops??

The GDP of the G8 is the sum of the GDPs of the constituent countries of the G8, yes? So, if the sum of the GDPs in future is 30% less than the sum now, then it's reasonable to say that the G8's GDP has dropped 30% over that period. It doesn't have to be difficult.

If you meant something else when you said "the nominal GDP for the G8 will drop 30-40%", then please let us know.

Let's say it will get 30% down from recession started Q1 2007 and sometime before first quarter 2011

You originally claimed 30-40%, so I'll hold you to the 35% midpoint, since you have the luxury of choosing the timescale (I'm surprised that you want to move the starting point back to 2007Q1, as I doubt it helps your case, but hey... I'm happy to accommodate)

So, from 2007Q1 to 2009Q1. Got a preferred source for quarterly numbers? If not, we'll have to settle for 2007-2011.

Now, how much would you like to bet?

 

[BazBear]

Er. two good shooters. Remember that on the early radio news in Australia.

And radio shows playing shortly after the assassination trump all the evidence it was one man, Lee Harvey Oswald? But that's off topic, sorry, back to your regularly scheduled discussion.

 

[macdoc]

Recall we are working from a peak GDP number to the lowest point in the 4 year run ( which might be 12 months from now ).

Yeah the metric source is tricky as in my view it's flawed already - if the Economist has a summary that's perhaps my comfort zone and clearly outside the bribery zone.

I do think I have the trend correct....

Scale is the issue

If you want 35%, August 2008 as a benchmark when the financial crisis blossomed to Aug 2011 and settle on a holiday bottle when the numbers come out in December.
We are talking real GDP - is that number published for G8??

 

[bobrayner]

If you want 35%, August 2008 as a benchmark when the financial crisis blossomed

Not 2007 Q1? Have you changed your mind?

to Aug 2011 and settle on a holiday bottle when the numbers come out in December.

Not 2011Q1? Have you changed your mind?

We are talking real GDP - is that number published for G8??

Weren't you talking about nominal GDP before? There's a difference. Nominal GDPs are, of course, widely published for the G8 member states. We just have to add them up.

It must be tiring moving those goalposts around. As soon as you're happy with a new position for the goalposts, we can bet. How much? You still haven't answered that.

I'm happy to go with annual GDPs in the back of the august Economist. Come on, it's a pretty straightforward bet; let's just pin the terms down and we can move forward to tedious back-and-forth debates on other subjects.

 

[macdoc]

YOU moved the goal post to 35% and I decided to shorten the period - since 2008 was rather flat it really won't impact much.

Real GDP takes care of any strange inflation anomalies.

Do we have a trusted source???
How to get the G8 overall performance?

 

[bobrayner]

Real GDP takes care of any strange inflation anomalies.

Are you going to stand by your original claim that "the nominal GDP for the G8 will drop 30-40%", or are you dropping it?

Whatever. If you're changing to "real gdp" then just tell us what you consider acceptable (are you thinking in terms of current dollars, or what?) and I'll go along with it.

Do we have a trusted source???

Didn't you suggest the Economist? I agreed to that. If you're changing your mind then please specify another source; otherwise we're both happy with the Economist.

How to get the G8 overall performance?

Aaarrrgh! The G8 is a set of countries. We can calculate the GDP of the G8 by summing the GDPs of the member countries (which are widely available). Consequently, we assess how the G8's GDP has changed over time by comparing sums of member-state GDPs at different times. It really doesn't have to be difficult. If you were thinking of something different, please let us know what your alternative is.

And could you please say how much you're willing to bet? Anything up to an ounce of gold is fine by me. ;-)

Come on, let's not try the patience of the other readers. Are you going to put your money where your mouth is, or aren't you?

 

[bobrayner]

Are you going to put your money where your mouth is, or aren't you?

Reposted, just in case macdoc forgot to respond over the last month.

I have cash waiting. Are you going to stand behind your claim? Or shall we abandon the claim and move on?

 

[mhaze]

Wait! I just noticed this, 'n I want in on the action too. We are betting aginst the proposition that "GDP blah blah blah with drop 30-40%".

Yup. Want in on that action.