Raymond Edward Powell protocol

[ben m]

I disagree. The challenge, as I read it, is to produce evidence of paranormal or supernatural ability or phenomena. If you claim to be able to make a truck levitate but only manage to make a VW bug levitate would that satisfy the challenge? Not with your logic. Would it still be evidence of such phenomena? I'd say so.
My point is that requiring more than is scientifically necessary undermines the credibility of the organization and gives claimants an arguement they shouldn't be given.

We've had this discussion on the forum before. If someone comes in claiming to predict coinflips with 100% accuracy, then Randi can *and will* test them by asking them to predict just 20 flips. There's a 1-in-a-million chance that a non-psychic person will win by dumb luck, by making a lucky 50-50 guess 20 times in a row.

Suppose that this person takes the test, predicts 20 flips, and gets 12 right. Is this, as you might think, "evidence" that the person really does have psychic powers with 60% accuracy instead of 100%? No, not at all: due to the laws of statistics, a random-guessing person will get 12 right sometimes: you probably have a one-in-five chance of passing this "test" with no powers at all.

60% accuracy is testable ... if you design the test to look for 60% accuracy! If you walked up to JREF and asked to be tested on 60%-accurate coin-flip-prediction, they'll ask you to get 750 right answers right out of 1250 trials. (A random guesser will get 625 right on average, with only a 1-in-a-million chance of getting lucky up to 750.) If you only get 650 right on this test, does that mean that you have 52%-accurate ESP? No, it means that you got lucky at the one-in-three level; it would take thousands of trials to convince anyone that you actually had 52% ESP.

Designing the test to test the claimed ability is absolutely scientifically necessary. That's how science works---even when you're searching for unknowns, you have to make concrete decisions about what equipment to use, how long to search, how much noise to tolerate, etc., which are informed by a) what sort of things you hope to find and b) how much money/time/energy you have.

The point about the VW-versus-truck is a bit hypothetical. I dare say that if someone came in, tried and failed to levitate a truck, but successfully levitated a Volkswagen, a person, or a rock, it would suggest two questions. First, why the heck didn't they volunteer to do a rock to begin with? Second, this sort of pathway could be a magician-like bit of misdirection---for example, while Randi is inspecting the truck for trickery, your confederate could be attaching a hidden monofilament to the rock, or attaching some sort of sneaky Balducci-style levitation device to the VW. You would never award someone $1,000,000 for doing something amazing and unexplainable off to the side, while everyone's attention was elsewhere---that's what stage magicians do every day.

If it happened, though, I dare say they'd be invited to reapply for a rock-based levitation test---one which gives Randi time to inspect the rock---which they would pass if they actually had psychic powers.

 

[steenkh]

I disagree. The challenge, as I read it, is to produce evidence of paranormal or supernatural ability or phenomena.

Like maatorc, I will then quote directly from the MDC page:

At JREF, we offer a one-million-dollar prize to anyone who can show, under proper observing conditions, evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event.

The bolding is mine, and it underlines that it is the claimant who has to show something, not the JREF.

If you claim to be able to make a truck levitate but only manage to make a VW bug levitate would that satisfy the challenge? Not with your logic. Would it still be evidence of such phenomena? I'd say so.

The point is that the JREF and the claimant works out a protocol, and if the claimant insists on levitating a truck, then that will be the agreed protocol, and he will fail if he only levitates a VW bug. There have been many cases where the JREF have suggested that the claimants lower their claims because the JREF find it sufficiently paranormal even at a lower level.

My point is that requiring more than is scientifically necessary undermines the credibility of the organization and gives claimants an arguement they shouldn't be given.

I do not see the point. The JREF often tries to make the claimant's claim more realistic, but if they do not agree, what would you expect the JREF to do? Drop the test?

 

[RemieV]

I don't understand the need to accept the subject's 100% accuracy as a requirement. A result that is greater than chance is scientifically significant. Requiring anything more, even if the subject insists he can do it, only undercuts the credibility of JREF by seeming to require more than is necessary. It is a preliminary test and as such should require only that the subject do something more than chance would predict.

100% accuracy is never a requirement. The requirement is one in ten thousand odds for the preliminary test.

However, if the claimant states that they wish to create a protocol designed on a basis of 100% accuracy, why should we argue? If they're that certain, go right ahead.

If the claim is levitation, there is no reason why it would be required for the individual to pick up a truck. It doesn't even seem safe. Wouldn't it make much more sense for them to just levitate anything?

The percentage would not be based on the item they were levitating, but on the suggestion that they could levitate anything at all.

Back on the topic of Raymond Edward Powell, his representative still has not responded to the protocol proposal.

 

[maatorc]

2007, 05:04 AM #42 steenkh Graduate Poster steenkh's Avatar

Originally Posted by Blippiwewe View Post
I disagree. The challenge, as I read it, is to produce evidence of paranormal or supernatural ability or phenomena.

Like maatorc, I will then quote directly from the MDC page:

Quote:
At JREF, we offer a one-million-dollar prize to anyone who can show, under proper observing conditions, evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event.

steenkh: The bolding is mine, and it underlines that it is the claimant who has to show something, not the JREF.

But as you know, the JREF MDC will not be able to show that it does or does not know that the claimant's demonstration is or is not evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event.

 

[JoeEllison]

But as you know, the JREF MDC will not be able to show that it does or does not know that the claimant's demonstration is or is not evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event.

So what? Or is it just another opportunity for you to misrepresent reality for your own misguided reasons?

Dude, you have not only beaten that dead horse, you've stabbed, shot, hung, drawn and quartered, impaled, poisoned, mildly insulted, dropped from a helicopter, burned at the stake, harshly insulted, and urinated on that dead horse.

Can't you give it a rest?

 

[maatorc]

Originally Posted by maatorc View Post
But as you know, the JREF MDC will not be able to show that it does or does not know that the claimant's demonstration is or is not evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event.

So what? Or is it just another opportunity for you to misrepresent reality for your own misguided reasons?
Dude, you have not only beaten that dead horse, you've stabbed, shot, hung, drawn and quartered, impaled, poisoned, mildly insulted, dropped from a helicopter, burned at the stake, harshly insulted, and urinated on that dead horse.
Can't you give it a rest?

Thanks Joe.
I trully appreciate your endorsement of my position.
Your contributions to the many threads here are most enlightening.
There is much to learn from your knowledge, wisdom, and insights.
Once again, many thanks.

 

[steenkh]

But as you know, the JREF MDC will not be able to show that it does or does not know that the claimant's demonstration is or is not evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event.

The JREF is not concerned with showing anything. They just want the demonstration of paranormal abilities so they can hand the money over. Others can take care of the showing and proving. It seems to be very important for you to claim something which is absent from the texts and statements of the JREF.

 

[maatorc]

Originally Posted by maatorc View Post
But as you know, the JREF MDC will not be able to show that it does or does not know that the claimant's demonstration is or is not evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event

.

The JREF is not concerned with showing anything. They just want the demonstration of paranormal abilities so they can hand the money over. Others can take care of the showing and proving. It seems to be very important for you to claim something which is absent from the texts and statements of the JREF.

The JREF MDC cannot know from the demonstration whether or not it is or is not a demonstration of paranormal abilities.

 

[steenkh]

.The JREF MDC cannot know from the demonstration whether or not it is or is not a demonstration of paranormal abilities.

No problem: The JREF decides if it is paranormal or not. If they accept it, they have to pay up if the claimant succeed. The JREF has on several occasions made it clear that if subsequent investigations show the phenomenon to have been quite normal, the money still belongs to the claimant. Evidently, the JREF is not trying to do what you think they want to do!

 

[petre]

.


The JREF MDC cannot know from the demonstration whether or not it is or is not a demonstration of paranormal abilities.

The JREF requires any paranormal demonstration to be self-evident. If your claim is that nothing paranormal is self-evident (as your belief appears to be), that may be true but is irrelevant to the purpose of JREF.

 

[RemieV]

Still no response from Mr. Powell's representative.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

Still no response from Mr. Powell's representative.

Not even with an incentive of USD 1,000,000.

 

[maatorc]

The JREF requires any paranormal demonstration to be self-evident. If your claim is that nothing paranormal is self-evident (as your belief appears to be), that may be true but is irrelevant to the purpose of JREF.

No, I am not saying a 'paranormal' event cannot be self evident, but that it cannot be proven to be 'paranormal'.

A successful MDC demonstration may however strongly infer a 'paranormal' event.

 

[chillzero]

This thread is to specifically discuss the protocol for testing Mr Powell.

Please take any other discussion elsewhere. I believe there are other threads for discussion of the nature of the challenge, or of the paranormal.

Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: chillzero

 

[volatile]

Mr. Powell has gotten back in contact, and stated that he will not agree to the stipulations in the protocol disallowing talking, foot tapping, and hand motions.

Mr. Powell also stated that he feels four out of nine hits should be statistically significant enough to clear the preliminary Challenge test.

Negotiations continue, and we will let you know the results as soon as they are available.

What happened to the 100% success rate? Why does he suddenly object to foot-tapping? Might Mr Powell no longer be as confident in his "ability" as he once seemed?

 

[RemieV]

What happened to the 100% success rate? Why does he suddenly object to foot-tapping? Might Mr Powell no longer be as confident in his "ability" as he once seemed?

Well, he was going through a representative before and apparently they had a falling out. Perhaps it was over the representative approving protocol details without consent?

I have no idea.

 

[volatile]

Well, he was going through a representative before and apparently they had a falling out. Perhaps it was over the representative approving protocol details without consent?

I have no idea.

By "through a representative", do you mean that some third party was answering on Raymond's behalf? I'd assumed that he was just using the internet at someone else's house...

How did he contact you to tell you the latest news if he doesn't have internet access? Snail mail?

 

[RemieV]

The representative was known to Mr. Powell personally, but Mr. Powell did not personally have an e-mail account. The way it was supposed to happen was the representative would contact through the Challenge e-mail and state Mr. Powell's concerns and requests, we would respond, and he would take the information back to Mr. Powell.

Again, not sure what happened there. It is normal for Challenge applicants to go through a representative, though, if they have a snag that doesn't enable them to communicate in the regular channels (for instance, many applicants have translators).

 

[huw12345]

The problem I have with a receiver that is not chosen by Mr Powell is that it gives him a cast-iron get-out if the test fails. This has nothing to do with his claimed 100% ability and everything to do with the fact that he could accuse the JREF of bribing the receiver to incorrectly receive the results. Mr Powell should be asked to nominate an incorruptable receiver of his own choice.

Also I'd like the test to be much more rigorously timed. For example, if the test starts at 09:00 then I'd like the timings to be stipulated something like this:

Transmission room:
09:00:00
Roll dice, record and sign (volunteer and Powell) result of dice roll.
09:00:15
Start transmitting
09:00:45
Stop transmitting
09:01:00
Roll dice, record and sign result of dice roll.
etc.

Receiver room:
09:00:15
Start receiving
09:00:45
Record result and sign (volunteer and receiver).
09:01:15
Start receiving
etc.

You would also want to video everything that happens in both rooms, and check the synchronisation of the clocks after the test.

 

[Gr8wight]

What happened to the 100% success rate? Why does he suddenly object to foot-tapping? Might Mr Powell no longer be as confident in his "ability" as he once seemed?

Perhaps Mr. Powell was not getting the results from his foot tapping that he desired...