Randi nonsense

[davidsmith73]

This is hilarious. Everyone is forgetting that Randi has "accepted Sheldrakes claim" as eligible for the challenge.

This all brings us back nicely to Josephsons original point. He says, quite rightly, that the problem is that the JREF decides whether an experiment is eligible for testing or not. When Randi "accepts Sheldrakes claim", I assume he means he accepts Sheldrakes experiment for testing because it can only be the experiment upon which any so-called "claim" is made from the parapsychologists point of view. However, its not clear at all whether Randi accepts Sheldrakes experiment (protocol and results) for the challenge, in which case - what claim is Randi talking about?

 

[The_Fire]

Not as I read it. What I read is: "If sheldrake is capable of this, then yes, he is eligible for the million, but he haven't applied yet and since that is the case, I call it BS."

From my understanding of the JREF SOP, they are not in the habit of seeking out possible candidates. The candidates must come to them. Or would you rather see them run all over the country side chasing every kook with a "I get an m....." routine?

 

[JPK]

Good afternoon davidsmith73.

This is hilarious. Everyone is forgetting that Randi has "accepted Sheldrakes claim" as eligible for the challenge.

All of this has been pointed out to you by several other posters, several differant times.
Sheldrakes claim is the he has evidence that people have paranormal abilities and that he can demonstrate this. This of course is eligible for the challenge. All it would take is for someone to apply.

This all brings us back nicely to Josephsons original point. He says, quite rightly, that the problem is that the JREF decides whether an experiment is eligible for testing or not.

It's the JREF challenge and the JREF's $1 million. Who do you believe should decide if an experiment is eligible for testing of not?

When Randi "accepts Sheldrakes claim", I assume he means he accepts Sheldrakes experiment for testing because it can only be the experiment upon which any so-called "claim" is made from the parapsychologists point of view.

And this is a false assumtion. Any experiment already performed by Sheldrake is irrelivent. If he applies, then a protocal will have to be mutually agreed apon by both the JREF and the claimant. Perhaps Sheldrakes method in his experiment could be used. Who knows? It is pointless to discuss until an application is submitted. Why you continue to avoid this fact speaks volumes.

However, its not clear at all whether Randi accepts Sheldrakes experiment (protocol and results) for the challenge, in which case - what claim is Randi talking about?

It seems crystal clear that any past experiments and the results are irrelivant. Furthermore, I would assume that the claim Randi is talking about is the claim that Sheldrake has evidence that people have paranormal abilities and that he can demonstrate that.
JPK

 

[CFLarsen]

This is hilarious. Everyone is forgetting that Randi has "accepted Sheldrakes claim" as eligible for the challenge.

That's a bald-faced lie, David. You know perfectly that people are not denying this. That's why Randi is waiting for Sheldrake to apply.

This all brings us back nicely to Josephsons original point. He says, quite rightly, that the problem is that the JREF decides whether an experiment is eligible for testing or not. When Randi "accepts Sheldrakes claim", I assume he means he accepts Sheldrakes experiment for testing because it can only be the experiment upon which any so-called "claim" is made from the parapsychologists point of view. However, its not clear at all whether Randi accepts Sheldrakes experiment (protocol and results) for the challenge, in which case - what claim is Randi talking about?

Why should JREF spend resources on Sheldrake's claim, if Sheldrake hasn't even applied yet?

Is it because Sheldrake is famous? That would be grossly unfair to other applicants.

Do you have any indication that Sheldrake will apply at all? If not, why should JREF spend resources on this?

 

[davefoc]

davidsmith73,
It has been my observation over many threads that your posts are well thought out but that you have a different view of the world than is the norm here at JREF.

Even here I can see your point a bit. And I think you must be able to see the point of many of the posters that process that JREF has set up with regard to its challenge is that people making a claim must fill in an application before a detailed review of their claim and proposed protocol will begin.

I interpret Randi's letter to mean that Sheldrake's claim associated with email is an acceptable subject for the challenge. I also believe that the situation is that JREF would accept Sheldrake's protocol provided that it met JREF's security concerns and statistical confidence level requirements. I think Sheldrake knows that and you don't. I don't see any way that this disagreement can be resolved barring an application by Sheldrake or by JREF doing everything that you think it should do to encourage Sheldrake to take the test.

What surprises me a bit is that given your apparent belief in the credibility of Sheldrake that you just don't do the experiment yourself. This appears to be an easy experiment to do. You might even be able to get some of the people who have posted in this thread to help you with it.

 

[davidsmith73]

That's a bald-faced lie, David. You know perfectly that people are not denying this. That's why Randi is waiting for Sheldrake to apply.

It was a turn of phrase Claus, meaning that nobody is taking that fact into proper consideration in their posts.

Why should JREF spend resources on Sheldrake's claim, if Sheldrake hasn't even applied yet?

I don't believe you would have to spend a penny on verifying if Sheldrakes experiment would be accepted for the challenge. All you would have to do is read his paper in an evening, understand it, and make a judgement on whether the protocol and level of results are satisfactory. Why would this be so difficult and resource-sapping for the JREF to do?

I'm not asking for much here surely. I would just like to know if Sheldrakes experiment on telephone telepathy (full method available on his site) is acceptable for the challenge and what kind of effect size and p-value would be acceptable for the JREF, based on this experiment. All this fuss for such a simple question!

The reason I want to know is because I believe Sheldrake is not taking the challenge because he fears the JREF will insist on results that are not realistic for such an experiment. Who would want to be shown as backing down from Randi!

I could be wrong but someone involved in these decisions please say so!

 

[The_Fire]

Which would lead to the next question: What would be an realistic level of results with something which can just as easily be explained with coincidence?

 

[davidsmith73]

I interpret Randi's letter to mean that Sheldrake's claim associated with email is an acceptable subject for the challenge.

I also believe that the situation is that JREF would accept Sheldrake's protocol provided that it met JREF's security concerns and statistical confidence level requirements.

I wonder what those are statistical confidence level requirements are? Addressing security concerns is fine, that's not relevent to the point Josephsone makes.

I think Sheldrake knows that and you don't. I don't see any way that this disagreement can be resolved barring an application by Sheldrake or by JREF doing everything that you think it should do to encourage Sheldrake to take the test.

If I were in Sheldrakes shoes, I would want to see the commitment from the JREF to comment on his real claim, his experiment, rather than commenting on some vague claim like "I have evidence for telepathy", which of course could mean a hell of a different thing depending on your views about how small an effect you think telepathy really is. Again, this is Josephsons point.

 

[CFLarsen]

It was a turn of phrase Claus, meaning that nobody is taking that fact into proper consideration in their posts.

But that is a lie, David. People are constantly pointing out that Randi has, in fact, accepted Sheldrakes claim as being eligible for the Challenge.

I don't believe you would have to spend a penny on verifying if Sheldrakes experiment would be accepted for the challenge. All you would have to do is read his paper in an evening, understand it, and make a judgement on whether the protocol and level of results are satisfactory. Why would this be so difficult and resource-sapping for the JREF to do?

But that is what JREF has done: Sheldrake's claim is eligible for the challenge. All that is needed is for Sheldrake to apply.

I'm not asking for much here surely. I would just like to know if Sheldrakes experiment on telephone telepathy (full method available on his site) is acceptable for the challenge and what kind of effect size and p-value would be acceptable for the JREF, based on this experiment. All this fuss for such a simple question!

It is acceptable, David. What claim did you think Randi was agreeing to?

The reason I want to know is because I believe Sheldrake is not taking the challenge because he fears the JREF will insist on results that are not realistic for such an experiment. Who would want to be shown as backing down from Randi!

Bollocks. All Sheldrake has to do is apply. Everything else follows that.

I could be wrong but someone involved in these decisions please say so!

Contact JREF, then. Let us know what they said.

 

[drkitten]

I wonder what those are statistical confidence level requirements are?

They vary from test to test. As a rule of thumb, a p value of 0.001 is usually sufficient for the preliminary, while a p value of 0.000001 would be necessary for the final, but the exact p values are part of protocols negotiated with the JREF.

If I were in Sheldrakes shoes, I would want to see the commitment from the JREF to comment on his real claim,

He hasn't made a real claim yet.

There's a procedure for making a real claim. It's called "applying."

And the whole reason for requiring people to apply formally is to make sure that there's no misunderstanding about what the claim is.

 

[JPK]

Good afternoon davidsmith73

I don't believe you would have to spend a penny on verifying if Sheldrakes experiment would be accepted for the challenge. All you would have to do is read his paper in an evening, understand it, and make a judgement on whether the protocol and level of results are satisfactory. Why would this be so difficult and resource-sapping for the JREF to do?

Very simple. No application has been submitted. Are you suggesting that the JREF should investigate every claim that someone makes simply because they have heard of it? Can you imagine the time and effort this would take? Sheldrake is aware of the challenge and will apply or not for his own reasons.

I'm not asking for much here surely. I would just like to know if Sheldrakes experiment on telephone telepathy (full method available on his site) is acceptable for the challenge and what kind of effect size and p-value would be acceptable for the JREF, based on this experiment. All this fuss for such a simple question!

Also simple. No. It's not acceptable because there was no one there representing the JREF to insure the printed method, was infact adheared to.

The reason I want to know is because I believe Sheldrake is not taking the challenge because he fears the JREF will insist on results that are not realistic for such an experiment. Who would want to be shown as backing down from Randi!

Your beliefs of why Sheldrake is not taking the challenge also is not important. The challenge is there. It is up to Sheldrake to apply or not. There is no pressure on him to do so. His reasons will be entirely his. Why do you have such a interest in what Sheldrake does?

I could be wrong but someone involved in these decisions please say so!

The staff of the JREF rarely follow the forum. You did the right thing by writing to Randi about your concerns. Randi responded to your questions. You were not satisfied with the answers and it might be that your questions were not clear enough.
Speaking of simple things, here is how the challenge works.
All you have to do to get the ball rolling is submit a claim stating the following:
1. What can you do?
2. Under what conditions?
3. With what degree of accuracy?
That's it. The key to the challenge is it's simplicity.
JPK

 

[davidsmith73]

But that is a lie, David. People are constantly pointing out that Randi has, in fact, accepted Sheldrakes claim as being eligible for the Challenge.

And then, like I said, not taking that fact properly into account.

But that is what JREF has done: Sheldrake's claim is eligible for the challenge. All that is needed is for Sheldrake to apply.

Firstly, I haven't yet had any confirmation of what Randi means when he says "standard rate of success". You see, even if a p-value of say 0.001 is mentioned, there is then the issue of how many trials are expected to reach this value, which is linked to the effect size. The JREF could say that a 0.001 p-value is the "standard rate of success in science" which is true, but then insist that a very low number of trials be performed. In this way, a demand has been put on a large effect size. Looking through the challenge archive, there is at least one instance of the JREF refusing to test someone based on this kind of principle.

It is acceptable, David. What claim did you think Randi was agreeing to?

I'm not sure because his replies became ever more ambiguous.

I'm curious, if indeed Sheldrakes experiment is acceptable, then does Randi believe there is evidence for telepathy there!?

 

[JPK]

Good afternoon davidsmith73

I'm curious, if indeed Sheldrakes experiment is acceptable, then does Randi believe there is evidence for telepathy there!?

You have just answered all of your questions with this sentence.
JPK

 

[Piggy]

This is hilarious. Everyone is forgetting that Randi has "accepted Sheldrakes claim" as eligible for the challenge.

This all brings us back nicely to Josephsons original point. He says, quite rightly, that the problem is that the JREF decides whether an experiment is eligible for testing or not. When Randi "accepts Sheldrakes claim", I assume he means he accepts Sheldrakes experiment for testing because it can only be the experiment upon which any so-called "claim" is made from the parapsychologists point of view.

This has been explained to you already.

Randi said that if Sheldrake can demonstrate in the challenge what he claims to have demonstrated, then he would win the prize.

This is not an approval of any particular protocol.

If I claim to have proven that dowsing works, and someone asks if that claim is eligible for the challenge, the answer is yes.

This does not mean that whatever protocol I used must be accepted. I could have done sloppy work.

So now it's been explained to you AGAIN. Please stop distorting this point.

Thanks.

 

[Piggy]

I don't believe you would have to spend a penny on verifying if Sheldrakes experiment would be accepted for the challenge. All you would have to do is read his paper in an evening, understand it, and make a judgement on whether the protocol and level of results are satisfactory. Why would this be so difficult and resource-sapping for the JREF to do?

Just reading your posts makes me want to "spend a penny".

JREF cannot start doing this because it takes up people's time unnecessarily. If they do this for you, then they have to do it for anyone else who wants an unapplied protocol evaluated.

Please start having a modicum of consideration for other people.

 

[Piggy]

If I were in Sheldrakes shoes, I would want to see the commitment from the JREF to comment on his real claim, his experiment, rather than commenting on some vague claim like "I have evidence for telepathy", which of course could mean a hell of a different thing depending on your views about how small an effect you think telepathy really is.

If Sheldrake applies and submits the protocol of his previous experiment, then he will get JREF's response to it.

He will not get any response for a "vague claim like 'I have evidence for telepathy'", because that's not an acceptable protocol.

You have heard this several times now. If you persist in ignoring what people on this board are telling you, and ignoring what's posted on the JREF site, and instead continue to say the contrary, people are simply going to start ignoring you.

 

[RandFan]

If I were in Sheldrakes shoes, I would want to see the commitment from the JREF to comment on his real claim, his experiment...

JREF wasn't involved in the controls. Randi has been through this before with others. An experiment that seemingly demonstrated something without an agreed on protocol by Randi didn't work once acceptable controls by Randi and the applicant were agreed on.

This is all just academic nonsense. Apply, negotiate an agreed on protocol and be tested. This is not a difficult thing to do. It's fair, appropriate and understandable based on the history of other such claims.

Let's look at this from a different perspective, for Sheldrake's claims to be scientifically valid the protocols must be rigorously examined and repeatable by others.

This is to a degree what is being asked for, only Randi is not saying that others need to repeat the experiments. Sheldrake can outline his protocols, confer with Randi as to whether it is agreed that the protocols are sufficient or if they need to be changed to the satisfaction of both Randi and Sheldrake at which point Sheldrake can prove his claims.

 

[Moochie]

Speaking of simple things, here is how the challenge works.
All you have to do to get the ball rolling is submit a claim stating the following:
1. What can you do?
2. Under what conditions?
3. With what degree of accuracy?
That's it. The key to the challenge is it's simplicity.
JPK

How many times must the above be repeated before it is accepted as real?

Why is a mouse when it spins?

What is the definition for parastupid?


M.

 

[PBTree]

When I was at the World Skeptic Congress a couple of years ago, there were actually a couple of brave parapsychologists who stood up and defended their cause. Apparently, the meagre results have forced the few remaining parapsychologists to develop methods of distinguishing the real parapsychologically gifted people from the psychologically challenged, and until now, they had only found people of the latter category.

Sorry, got this far and couldn't take it anymore. What is all this p and n nonsense and methods of showing someone is successful out of an x amount of tries.

I don't believe the JREF test is hard enough.

You can either do the bl..dy thing or you can't. Or is psi ability one of those special things that only happens when the moon is full and your left leg is off the ground.

If you can move something, move it every time otherwise it is nonsense.

If you can talk to my long dead gggrandmother, talk to her lots of times, have a full on conversation with her. Get her to give you her life story, write it down and then tell me (I will know if it is true or not), not just some "picking up names starting with M bull...t".

If you can dowse water or gold, then it is either there or its not. If its there, you have to be right all the time, otherwise you can't dowse water or gold. How simple is that to understand?

I can touch type (an ability). I don't have days when I can only type the characters along the top row, I can type every day. I don't have days when I have to hunt & peck with one finger or can only type p amount of characters. You either have an ability (learnt or natural) or you don't. You don't nearly have one.

Telling people you are psychic just because you can pick which card is going to come out of a deck, x or more times out of 100 is one step from selling snake oil. Psychics should be able to do it every time.

The biggest laugh I get, is when I listen to the excuses as to why these people can't show their talent every time. "To hot, to cold, to much iron in the ground, to much static, everyone is looking at me, spirits aren't around today".... groan.

Not one person has ever shown they can use their supposed talent all the time (if ever). Why not? Doesn't that tell you somthing?

 

[anor277]

This is hilarious. Everyone is forgetting that Randi has "accepted Sheldrakes claim" as eligible for the challenge.

Thank you for pointing that out; I had clean forgotten! It seems also that Sheldrake has forgotten it along with the rest of us as he has not yet approached the JREF. Maybe the JREF is running scared of Sheldrake's experiments; I suspect otherwise but I don't know with certainty. Should this be the case why should there be any obligation on the JREF to investigate a claim that has so far not been made, and a claim that might cost them money?

This all brings us back nicely to Josephsons original point. He says, quite rightly, that the problem is that the JREF decides whether an experiment is eligible for testing or not.

And can this properly be considered a problem? The prize is offered by the JREF, it has been funded by the JREF and its sponsors, and the JREF has acted in good faith, as far as I can tell, in its dealings with past applicants. The decision whether an experiment is eligible for testing is under these circumstances, quite properly in my opinion, to be made solely by the JREF. In fact I am merely repeating what Randi said in last week's commentary. Should Josephson not like this, he is certainly free to criticize it, but in effect he is telling a private organization what to do with their money; a man of his stature might have more success if he lobbied proponents of the paranormal to fund prizes in parapsychological research - Victor Zammit and the National Council for Homeopathy (Pakistan) apparently have money to spare.

When Randi "accepts Sheldrakes claim", I assume he accepts Sheldrakes experiment for testing because it can only be the experiment upon which any so-called "claim" is made from the parapsychologists point of view. However, its not clear at all whether Randi accepts Sheldrakes experiment (protocol and results) for the challenge, in which case - what claim is Randi talking about?

I (and others who have replied) do not share your assumption, though I respect your desire not to behave like a nuisance to either Randi or Sheldrake. Randi quite probably could criticize Sheldrake's protocol and experiments; should Sheldrake never accept the JREF's challenge the point is likely to be moot.