Quiz: Just a coincidence?

Interesting Ian said:

But the problem here is that this plum pudding episode is not an isolated one. If it were an isolated incident, then fine. It was just a wild coincidence. But these incidents are ubiquitous. To say that they are all just wholly happenstance reveals a deep unappreciative understanding of probability.

So someone gathers a bunch of unusual concidences in one place, and now you can point at it and go look! look!

:rolleyes:

Now if all these coincedences had happened to the same person, or if they were all linked by something, say they all involved plum pudding, then we'd have something more than coincidence.

As they say, the odds of you winning the lottery are small, but someone eventually wins it.
 
4/10

Originally posted by Nex
You can "rather think" whatever you choose Ian-- in fact, it looks to me from your posts around here that that's precisely what you do.

Coincidences are just that-- coincidences.
Alright, skeptic, tell me how you explain why of 4 available choices per question on the test, each user had a 50% probability of choosing the correct answer.

Tremble!

:D
 
Got 6 out of 10.

The French astronomer Camille Flammarion was writing a chapter about the wind for his book “The Atmosphere” when something happened. What was
it?

The correct answer is A strong gust of wind blew the pages out of the window.

Ian, what kind of paranormal event was this? Was the wind a thinking entity, who got mad at this astronomer? Did God see him writing about wind and thought "hey, it would be fun if the wind blew the pages out of the window"? The same can be asked in all these questions; if you don't think they are coincidences, then what were the real causes?


As a young boy, King Louis XVI of France was warned by an astrologer to beware the 21st of every month. Louis was beheaded on January 21, 1793. True or false?

t Correct!

How is this coincidence extraordinary? There's about 3½% chance he would die on that date.


Also, I doubt most of these tales have occured exactly as described. Stories like these are improved every time they pass from one person to the next. The urban legend effect.
 
5/10

I knew the story of the choir who missed practice. See here.

So that one's true at least.

However after the answer for that one it says:

There are many stories of people who, for various reasons, have failed to catch a plane which then crashed, killing everyone on board.

That would be special, if it weren't for the fact that much more people who, for various reasons, have failed to catch a plane which then landed safely at its destination.
 
Interesting Ian said:
The question here is out of hundreds of millions, maybe billions of people, would such an occurrence be deemed to be unusual? Well ok, let's be generous and say a pool of 2 billion. So what we're talking about here is that some person out of 2 billion by "happenstance" encounters another individual 3 times in his life, and on each of those 3 occasions there is this common factor X which was implicitly involved, and, at least in the case of one individual (Deschamps), this common factor only occurred on those 3 occasions in his life.
You're right, the probability is difficult to calculate. But you're forgetting some things that affect the probabilities by a large amount.

First, were both of these individuals citizens of the same country? That would reduce the number of people to tens of millions. Or even the same region/city? That might reduce the number to a couple million or even as low as a few hundred thousand.

Now, it's indeed curious that they both grabbed for the same piece of pie. What if they had been reaching for the last roll of toilet paper the day before? or the last seat on a bus the next afternoon? How many opportunities might they have had to run into each other over the course of a decade, each of which would seem as remarkable as any other instance? It would have been equally startling, yet taken together the probability of just one of these many, many things happening need not be very small.

Now aggregate the probabilities related to all this individuals old friends and relatives...

My uncle relates the strange story of travelling to Hong Kong and running into an old friend in an elevator. Strange? Maybe. But they were in similar businesses, they both travelled to Asia a lot, and it was a popular hotel for westerners...
 
10 out of 10

This quiz is a perfect example of remembering the hits and forgetting the misses.

How many of us daily have absolutely no unusual or extraordinary things happen?
 
LostAngeles said:
I knew the story of the choir who missed practice. See here.

From that article, this sentence is notable:

But past performance indicated that each person would be late for practice one time in four - producing a one-in-a-million chance that the entire choir would be late that night.

One-in-a-million really isn't that impressive. People win in lotteries with much smaller chances all the time.
 
plindboe said:
Got 6 out of 10.



Ian, what kind of paranormal event was this? Was the wind a thinking entity, who got mad at this astronomer? Did God see him writing about wind and thought "hey, it would be fun if the wind blew the pages out of the window"? The same can be asked in all these questions; if you don't think they are coincidences, then what were the real causes?




How is this coincidence extraordinary? There's about 3½% chance he would die on that date.



Plindboe,

Need I remind you that these were not my choices of amazing coincidences. I just thought the quiz might be a bit of fun.

If I want to argue about coincidences, I shall choose my own. Maybe I will do that and start a thread over the next few days.
 
Here's mine:

I dated a girl named Lisa during the summer between my Freshman and Sophomore years in college. This was in St. Louis, Missouri, in 1971. I never saw her after that. . . .

I went back to St. Louis to visit my folks in 1983. I decided to visit a bookstore, so I found one in a mall about 5 miles from my folks' house. I had never been there before. I was standing in the checkout line when someone behind me said "Hi, Paul." It was Lisa. She now lived about 15 miles from that mall and had visited it only rarely. We had dinner that evening. I have not seen her since.

Coincidence? I think . . . yeah.

~~ Paul
 
Originally posted by Interesting Ian
To say that they are all just wholly happenstance reveals a deep unappreciative understanding of probability.
I agree that the exact chain of events featuring the plum pudding is extraordinarily unlikely.

However, to examine the set of events that would make it onto a list of strange occurances, we should be considering the probability that something noteworthy for it's apparent unusualness occurs. That is, an event whose apparent probability is much smaller than it's actual probability, and such events occur rather often - especially in the eyes of those with a 'deep unappreciative understanding of probability'.
 
What are the odds, out of all the millions of people, that some of them will live their lives surrounded by lots of long odds coincidences?

What are the odd of a person never to encountering long odds coincidences?
 
Interesting Ian said:
Need I remind you that these were not my choices of amazing coincidences. I just thought the quiz might be a bit of fun.

And it is. The question about that rather unremarkable coincidence wasn't an attack against you, I just wanted to point out how silly that one was.
 
Interesting Ian said:
It's extraordinary difficult . . . nay . . impossible to precisely calculate the probability in such cases. Certainly I am not claiming that one particular coincidence is compelling evidence for anything peculiar going on.

But let's briefly consider the plum pudding coincidence to see what tentative conclusions we might be able to come to.

The question here is out of hundreds of millions, maybe billions of people, would such an occurrence be deemed to be unusual? Well ok, let's be generous and say a pool of 2 billion. So what we're talking about here is that some person out of 2 billion by "happenstance" encounters another individual 3 times in his life, and on each of those 3 occasions there is this common factor X which was implicitly involved, and, at least in the case of one individual (Deschamps), this common factor only occurred on those 3 occasions in his life.

Not 3 times. 2 times. The first instance is not a parnormal event. A dish was served at a family gathering when a friend of the family was present. Later this fact assumes significance because of other events. There could have been several things that Deschamps experiencied that night - maybe he was recovering from a dog bite or maybe he told an off-color joke about Germans or maybe he had recently lost his hat. Any of those things could have been the repeating factor, but none of them require calculating a coincidence percentage before the second meeting.

So we have this uncommon food called "plum pudding" on the restaurant menu and Deschamps remembers it from the one occasion he tried it as a boy, he liked it, and decides to order it. But unfortunately the very last slice had just been ordered. This guy who ordered it turns out to be Monsieur de Fortgibu, the other guy!

Now as I say, it's impossible to really calculate how unusual this event was. We would need to have specified the chances of such an occurrence happening prior to the event. There are so many possibilities in our lives for such unusual coincidences to happen like this. Moreover, even if in a particular individuals life we judge such an occurrence to be highly unusual, we have 2 billion people to choose from! So conclusion is that this was a coincidence. I have no problem with this whatsoever.


Don't we need to know the year of this story before we can come up with a number? And even if it is recent, the population of Paris today is only 2.1 million.
 
chance said:
What are the odds, out of all the millions of people, that some of them will live their lives surrounded by lots of long odds coincidences?

What are the odd of a person never to encountering long odds coincidences?

If looking at details, all our encounters are absolutely unique, even the ones that seem totally unremarkable to us. For instance if you're at the beach and pick up a handful of sand. Each grain of sand has millions of years history behind it, each one a different path, so the odds that they would end up in your hand will seem arbsurdly small if trying to calculate them. Everything in our entire lifes consist of remarkable coincidences when considering the details.
 
Paranormal or Coincidence? – a true story of my one paranormal experience.

As a psychology student, I moved into a rather dingy and damp bed-sit flat in Oxford. I didn’t have the money for a TV back then, but I did have a transistor radio. I often lay on my bed in the evening, reading the newspapers, or a book, or just listening to the radio. One night, as I was reading a textbook on psychology by a Dr Quentin Emerson, my eyes were curiously distracted to the wall facing my bed. The walls had been painted with cream emulsion paint for my moving in. I remember it was only a slight improvement since I’d viewed the flat in its dingy state, but it was clean and fresh at least. Anyway, as I looked at the wall, I was rather annoyed to see a damp patch had appeared. As I stared at it, I began to notice that by some curious coincidence the damp patch resembled a human face. The more I stared, the clearer it became – like a shaded black and white (black and cream, really) charcoal drawing. I was amazed at the detail that such a random damp patch could produce. Like a charcoal portrait, there on my wall, was a man in his fifties, balding, wearing round glasses, and sporting a distinctive moustache and goatee beard. Curiously, there were no other damp patches coming through the cream walls. I vowed to take this up with the landlord in the morning.

As the evening drew on, I continued to read my book, but was constantly distracted by “the face on the wall”. Out of curiosity, I even got up and inspected it. Close up, it was not as distinct. I rubbed the patch on the wall – no feeling of damp, or mould. My rubbing didn’t smudge the “portrait”. And when I returned and reclined on the bed, the image of the man’s face seemed even clearer. I could clearly identify the balding head, a wide brow, piercing eyes staring benignly through the round glasses, a prominent Roman nose, and the moustache and goatee beard.

I continued to read Dr Emerson’s book and tried to put the face out of my mind. At this point another strange coincidence occurred. As I focused on my reading, I realised I was reading Dr Emerson’s theory on ‘pareidolia’. This is the well-known psychological trait that allows humans to conjure up recognizable images from random patterns, like clouds, or ink blots. Most of us have “seen” a rabbit form in the clouds or imagined a face in . . . a pattern. It hit me. This must be exactly what I was doing with the damp patch. I was fitting a random pattern to an image in my mind – a human face. Given a differently shaped patch, I might have imagined a sheep, or a giant spider. So that explained it – “pareidolia”. I smiled to myself.

Satisfied that I had explained the mystery, and content at having learned a new term from the estimable Dr Emerson, I decided to turn in for the night. I closed my book, left it down on my bedside table, and turned on the radio to get the late night news before sleeping. I had just reached to turn out the lamp when I was struck as if by a bolt of lightning. I jumped from the bed in panic, in fear, in shock, in dread. As I stood there quivering, looking at the book on the table, and then looking at the wall, I began to sweat. I had laid the book on the table face-down. There, on the back cover, and noticed by me for the first time, was a black and white photograph of Dr Quentin Emerson. It was identical to the face on the wall!

There, in the photo was the man with the balding head, the wide brow, the piercing eyes staring benignly through the round glasses, the prominent Roman nose, and the distinctive moustache and goatee beard. The wall patch was more charcoal-drawing like, but there could be no mistake. The image on the wall was a clear representation of Dr Quentin Emerson.

My mind was racing. Things like this don’t happen. I’m a scientist . . . but the probability of this happening was astronomical in anyone’s estimation. I sat down shaking on the side of the bed – looking at the photo, looking at the face on the wall – back – forth. They were identical. Was I going mad? I lay down again and propped myself up, looking straight at the face on the wall. As I looked, it began to fade. I rubbed my eyes and looked again. Slowly, but surely, the image was getting lighter, fainter, fading into the cream, distorting, melting. Then, it was gone. My heart was beating fast. Was this a hallucination? Now the cream wall had not a mark on it. The face on the wall was gone.

I was somehow relieved by its disappearance. For the first time in my life, I had witnessed something that seemed inexplicable – but paranormal, surely not? The odds of this happening – the probability of the exactitude of the apparition . . . I tried to sleep. The BBC radio midnight pips were playing on the radio. The witching hour, hah! I turned it off. I had had enough of weirdness for one night. However, I left the lamp on! Fitfully, I tossed and turned until eventually I fell asleep.

In the morning, I woke with a start. I sat upright and stared at the wall. Nothing. No sign of any image, not even a mark on the cream wall. I was relieved. It had been nothing but a bad dream after all. I sat up, turned off the lamp, and looked at Dr Emerson’s photo. I glanced at the wall half expecting . . . but no. There was no image there. Nothing – no face, no damp, not a mark. I sighed at my own stupidity and turned on the radio. The 9 a.m. BBC News was just ending and I listened as he announcer said:

“The BBC is sorry to report a great loss to the scientific community. The renowned psychologist, Dr Quentin Emerson, famous for his debunking of paranormal claims, died last night AT JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT!”

I froze!

Now there are some astounding coincidences in what happened in that bed-sit. Indeed, I later learned that, as a young student at Oxford, Dr Emerson had occupied that very flat thirty years before I took up residence. Strange, huh?

Look at what else was strange about this occurrence – the appearance of a “face” on my wall that looked exactly like the author of the book I was reading. The fact that in the section I was reading, Dr Emerson was writing about the human tendency to create mind images of recognizable forms from random patterns. Then there was the strange coincidence that this “imagined” face disappeared at just before midnight, just as the real Dr Emerson passed away. But for the believer in the paranormal there is something stranger still about this story . . .


I just made it up ten minutes ago!

[Actually this is a rewriting of a story I read years ago, but I forget the author. Maybe H.G. Wells?]
 
Interesting Ian said:
You think so because human beings have a poor grasp of probability.
I have very firm grasp of probability, more so than most people. And I say that a coincidence is just that, a coincidence
 
I scored 3. Interestingly, one I got right was about the person getting a call intended for him on a wrong number.

I find this interesting, because the most impressive coincidence I knew of was very similar. An employee of a Spanish car rental firm phoned a colleague at home. She dialled the wrong number and was connected to a public phone in the city centre. The phone was answered by the colleague she was trying to contact, who happened to be passing.

The two tales may be myth. If not, they imply that such errors are much commoner than we might think.
 
Pants! Only 1 out of 10! I guess my statistical education didn't help me after all.

Interesting Ian said:
You think so because human beings have a poor grasp of probability.

That most people do not understand probability is correct. The belief that the chance of rolling a 6 [edit] is less than 1/6 [/edit] when the previous roll resulted in a 6 is extremely common.

The easy mistake to make when considering stories such as those on that site, is not taking properly into account that these are handpicked because of their extraordinarity. It shouldn't come as a surprise that the most amazing coincidences are pretty amazing.
 
I found myself reminded of the advertising saying 'I know I'm wasting half my advertising dollars, I just don't know which half' while reading this. It's a lot like that - I know amazing coincidences are going to occur, I just don't know which ones. I know that some set of lottery numbers is going to get drawn tonight that only has a 1 in 50 million chance of coming up, I just don't know which set.
 
How many of these stories are verified? I am pretty sure I have seen #1 debunked as an urban legend somewhere. Several of the others have the characteristics of UL, too.

Hans
 

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