Quiz: Just a coincidence?

[Interesting Ian]

Go here

I only got 8 out of 10

 

[Bikewer]

Considering the world's population of some-odd billions, and the numbers of "incidents" that occur to each of us each day, it's not only likely that such bizzare oddments will happen; it's inevitable.

 

[Interesting Ian]

Considering the world's population of some-odd billions, and the numbers of "incidents" that occur to each of us each day, it's not only likely that such bizzare oddments will happen; it's inevitable.

Like the plum pudding one? I rather think not.

 

[Nex]

Like the plum pudding one? I rather think not.

You can "rather think" whatever you choose Ian-- in fact, it looks to me from your posts around here that that's precisely what you do.

Coincidences are just that-- coincidences.

 

[Dr Adequate]

I think actually the quiz makes the point quite well. In each case, all four options would be equally astonishing coincidences. In each case, we can think of dozens more things which would also have seemed equally astonishing coincidences.

I know the MegaSooperDooper mind moves in mysterious ways, but is it really spending its time arranging plum-pudding related coincidences? Hasn't it got something better to do?

Something which happened to me once. I was a temp worker in a factory, and one of my workmates was an Irishman named Tom, if memory serves. A few weeks later, I was in Nairobi, and who do you suppose was the first person I saw when I got off the plane?

An African, and a complete stranger.

Shall we stack up all the stories like that against all the whacky coincidences? But of course, people don't usually bother to tell stories like that.

 

[Interesting Ian]

You can "rather think" whatever you choose Ian-- in fact, it looks to me from your posts around here that that's precisely what you do.

Coincidences are just that-- coincidences.

You think so because human beings have a poor grasp of probability.

 

[Interesting Ian]

I think actually the quiz makes the point quite well. In each case, all four options would be equally astonishing coincidences. In each case, we can think of dozens more things which would also have seemed equally astonishing coincidences.

And I could think of billions of things which do not seem astonishing coincidences.

 

[Nex]

You think so because human beings have a poor grasp of probability.

As compared to... what? Personally, I've had a couple weird coincidences in my life, but they're still coincidences. They neither prove nor disprove anything.

Ian, I'd really like to believe that this paranormal stuff was out there, but this quiz isn't exactly irrefutable evidence.

Of course, you think it is because you have a poor grasp of what coincidence is.

I win this debate due to the fact that I don't have the patience or required masochism to deal with Ian.

 

[rppa]

Coincidences are just that-- coincidences.
You think so because human beings have a poor grasp of probability.

Damn <whap, whap>. Irony meter pinned again. Maybe I should get one of them newfangled digital models.

 

[Zombified]

You think so because human beings have a poor grasp of probability.

I suppose I could ask you to show your math, but I think I know what sort of answer I'm going to get...

 

[Paul C. Anagnostopoulos]

I answered at random and got 3/10. Coincidence? I think not.

I assume that we are assuming that these stories are true. It doesn't say that anywhere, though.

~~ Paul

 

[Michael Redman]

Is there supposed to be some point to this? What am I missing here? What do these anecdotes supposedly show, and why are they set into a trivia quiz format? Several of the answers seem to be the most likely, especially considering the later explanations. Several others are obvious choices considering their differences from the other choices and the intent of the quiz. These would not be good standardized test questions.

And am I supposed to be impressed that there are stories of people missing doomed flights? Someone misses almost every flight. What would be amazing is if no one missed the doomed flights.

 

[Paul C. Anagnostopoulos]

Wait, I don't get it. What are you saying, Ian? Are you saying that the probability of these occurrences is 0.0 and therefore they were arranged?

~~ Paul

 

[IXP]

Like the plum pudding one? I rather think not.

Which definitely shows your lack of critical thinking skills. Is is still so amazing a coincidence if the two of them frequented this restuarant and ran into each other daily for the last ten years? How do you know this is not the case? For that matter, how do we know any of these stories are true?

 

[CFLarsen]

You think so because human beings have a poor grasp of probability.

If you say that these are not coincidences, and complain that people have a poor grasp of probablitities (indicating that you have a good grasp), then how did you calculate the probabilities for these events?

Can you just show us one calculation, so we can see what you mean?

Or is it merely your opinion?

 

[Bikewer]

Looked at in isolation, the chance that nearly any particular "incident" occurs is highly improbably. What's the likelyhood that I would be born? With the characteristics I have?


The comments about the validity of these examples is well put, as is the notion that you'd think supreme whatevers would have something better to do.

Surely an omnipotent being can come up with something better than Jesus-on-a-taco.

 

[Interesting Ian]

Which definitely shows your lack of critical thinking skills. Is is still so amazing a coincidence if the two of them frequented this restuarant and ran into each other daily for the last ten years? How do you know this is not the case? For that matter, how do we know any of these stories are true?

I have no idea where you got this information from. My background knowledge of the case was that this deschamps knew the other guy as a boy, then subsequently only met him twice again in his life, both on the 2nd and 3rd times of having plum pudding in his life.

 

[TLN]

Can you just show us one calculation, so we can see what you mean?

Or is it merely your opinion?

So, no answer then. As expected.

Ian, when will you offer anything?

 

[Interesting Ian]

If you say that these are not coincidences, and complain that people have a poor grasp of probablitities (indicating that you have a good grasp), then how did you calculate the probabilities for these events?

Can you just show us one calculation, so we can see what you mean?

Or is it merely your opinion?

It's extraordinary difficult . . . nay . . impossible to precisely calculate the probability in such cases. Certainly I am not claiming that one particular coincidence is compelling evidence for anything peculiar going on.

But let's briefly consider the plum pudding coincidence to see what tentative conclusions we might be able to come to.

The question here is out of hundreds of millions, maybe billions of people, would such an occurrence be deemed to be unusual? Well ok, let's be generous and say a pool of 2 billion. So what we're talking about here is that some person out of 2 billion by "happenstance" encounters another individual 3 times in his life, and on each of those 3 occasions there is this common factor X which was implicitly involved, and, at least in the case of one individual (Deschamps), this common factor only occurred on those 3 occasions in his life.

So we have this uncommon food called "plum pudding" on the restaurant menu and Deschamps remembers it from the one occasion he tried it as a boy, he liked it, and decides to order it. But unfortunately the very last slice had just been ordered. This guy who ordered it turns out to be Monsieur de Fortgibu, the other guy!

Now as I say, it's impossible to really calculate how unusual this event was. We would need to have specified the chances of such an occurrence happening prior to the event. There are so many possibilities in our lives for such unusual coincidences to happen like this. Moreover, even if in a particular individuals life we judge such an occurrence to be highly unusual, we have 2 billion people to choose from! So conclusion is that this was a coincidence. I have no problem with this whatsoever.

Then we have the third time Deschamps encounters plum pudding in his life. He was invited to a dinner party, and plum pudding was on the menu! At the dinner table M. Deschamps told his little story, remarking, 'All we need now for perfect contentment is M. de Fortgibu'. At that very moment M. de Fortgibu enters! He wasn't supposed to be there, he had got lost.

Now at this stage I think a sensible person would be thinking there's something a bit fishy going on. But still, there's still a good possibility that maybe it's just a wild coincidence. After all, we just need to consider the fantastic number of permutations out of all existing people where such an unusual coincidence could have taken place.

But the problem here is that this plum pudding episode is not an isolated one. If it were an isolated incident, then fine. It was just a wild coincidence. But these incidents are ubiquitous. To say that they are all just wholly happenstance reveals a deep unappreciative understanding of probability.

 

[TLN]

But the problem here is that this plum pudding episode is not an isolated one. If it were an isolated incident, then fine. It was just a wild coincidence. But these incidents are ubiquitous. To say that they are all just wholly happenstance reveals a deep unappreciative understanding of probability.

Which you so aptly demonstrated for us with your complete lack of any statistics or methods to your ramblings. Once again, we're left with nothing but opinion, not an empirical statistical analysis.

Basically you're saying "if you don't agree with me then you don't understand probability," but you've presented nothing to back up this assertion but opinion.