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Putin HAS to invade Ukraine, or look very WEAK

Hercules56

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Putin has amassed a very large army on Ukraine's border.

They have demanded some very big things.

-no more NATO expansion eastward.

-no Ukraine membership in NATO.

-NATO brings its forces back to 1998 locations.


This is some serious stuff. And NATO's response? "**** YOU".


Now, if Putin doesn't get even 25% of what he wants, and pulls back his army, he will look VERY WEAK.

Russians will wonder what this was all for.

If Putin invades Ukraine, he gets a big slice of Ukraine.

Putin, may choose the chaos of war, over all the **** that may come with him looking weak, and NATO having a victory over him.

Thoughts?
 
I see a lot of social media posts blaming the West for escalating the situation by giving Ukraine military supplies and by suggesting that Russia might do some sort of attack. According to such posts, the American and British governments are hysterical and unhinged, going on and on about some war that will never happen.

So I think if Russia really doesn't attack, they'll just run with that message - amplified through Russian state media and social media and by paid and/or willing sycophants all over.

"The U.S. tried to start a war and accused us of horrible things, but we were the better nation and didn't take the bait!!" I mean, that message is already getting pushed pretty hard on twitter, they'll just do it more. Push the message that the west is insane, absolutely mad and it is only through great reserve and restraint that Russia managed to outmaneuver and checkmate such crazed world leaders.

Unless they actually do attack. In which case they'll go with some other message, generally emphasizing that they had no choice and probably claiming that Ukraine or America started it first.

If they do attack and get their butts kicked, they'll claim that they were ambushed by the American Army or Special Forces.

I guess my point is that good guy/bad guy dynamics are already set in most people's heads. Most people will claim that their guy did the right thing. And the Russian propagandists already have narratives ready for most possible outcomes.
 
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Hercules56 said:
Now, if Putin doesn't get even 25% of what he wants, and pulls back his army, he will look VERY WEAK.

Russians will wonder what this was all for.

If Putin invades Ukraine, he gets a big slice of Ukraine.

Putin, may choose the chaos of war, over all the **** that may come with him looking weak, and NATO having a victory over him.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I don't think Putin's fear is looking weak. His fear is that this may be his last chance to stop NATO's westward expansion.

 
I'm glad I don't have the job of being Vlad's food-taster; I wouldn't want to bet there isn't a polonium sandwich or chicken-and-ricin on the menu. It would be one way Russia could back out of this without losing face.
 
NATO would seem to hold the whip hand, and they know Pootie knows too. So they don't have to go all silverback about it.

Pootie has been losing relevance and brownie-points recently, especially after repression of press and politicians. The Biden administration isn't falling for his bluffs like puppet Trump did. Sleepy Joe is either staring him down, or going to sleep, behind the sunglasses. So he needs some big show of force to remind the proles that he is still dangerous, and is still The Man. Threatening Ukraine with a barely-disguised "training exercise" is one way. A classic, actually.

And Ukraine doesn't want to be turned into glowing green glass by any nuclear exchange should someone slip up. Local insurrections have been bad enough. So they are keen that nothing, but nothing! should happen.

So Ukraine will be satisfied with their country intact, and Putin if he can back away with his dignity intact. Perhaps NATO can give Pootie a sweetener: Not to admit Ukraine into NATO provided Pootie retires permanently to his multi-billion ruble Black Sea "dacha".

Fantasies!

Nothing will happen, just hot air.
 
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He might agree that he must attack. But that's only because the most effective option is something that his mind just can't conjure up, or even retain if somebody else were to suggest it to him: just quit making yourself everybody else's enemy, and then they won't be yours.
 
Another looming deadline for Putin might be the beginning of the end of the Pandemic:
Anti-vaxx propaganda has a large overlap with pro-Russia propaganda, for exactly the reasons you think; but with the relaxation of lockdowns and normalization of life, Putin's propaganda influence in the West will decrease.
 
Biden admin has once again made it clear that we will not intervene militarily to defend Ukraine. There will be no US combat troops on the ground. Or fighters in the air.

If Putin was ever going to take more of Ukraine, its now.

Of course he could wait for Trump to get reelected in 2024. But we also ,might get a GOP President who respects NATO and Europe.

If I was Putin, I would take the Donbas now.
 
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Hercules56 said:
Biden admin has once again made it clear that we will not intervene militarily to defend Ukraine. There will be no US combat troops on the ground. Or fighters in the air.

If Putin was ever going to take more of Ukraine, its now.

Of course he could wait for Trump to get reelected in 2024. But we also ,might get a GOP President who respects NATO and Europe.

If I was Putin, I would take the Donbas now.
Click to expand...


If most people were Putin, we would all be dead by now. But Putin is Putin, and it's Biden who looks weak outside the western propaganda bubble. Psaki scratching the "immediate" term was absolutely priceless.
 
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Pixel42 said:
Very good background article with some maps I found helpful:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56720589

I must admit I hadn't realised just how many of the previously Soviet countries had joined NATO.
Click to expand...

It's almost as if 50 years of soviet occupation, combined with a neighbouring dictator seeking to distract his population with military adventures drives countries into seeking an alliance to protect themselves.
 
Trebuchet said:
I've been thinking he's painted himself into a bit of a corner. A very dangerous corner. Probably due to believing Republican propaganda about Biden.
Click to expand...


Dude, everybody in both Russia and Ukraine knows about Biden's bizarre levels of corruption. What has painted itself into a corner is the propaganda media you consume. The "invasion" only happens there.
 
"Oh, the "Republican media" is telling me something I don't want to believe. Therefore it must be false". It's 2022, folks, grow up. Your "parties" are two wings of the same bird of prey.
 
Childlike Empress said:
Dude, everybody in both Russia and Ukraine knows about Biden's bizarre levels of corruption. What has painted itself into a corner is the propaganda media you consume. The "invasion" only happens there.
Click to expand...
Childlike Empress said:
"Oh, the "Republican media" is telling me something I don't want to believe. Therefore it must be false". It's 2022, folks, grow up. Your "parties" are two wings of the same bird of prey.
Click to expand...
Vlad miscalculated. He should have invaded in Trump's term instead of waiting to bully a Democrat into inaction. He'd have had the Republicans on his side as allies eager for a little kleptocracy of their own. But who'd have guessed Trump's rot had sunk that deep?
 
Beelzebuddy said:
Vlad miscalculated. He should have invaded in Trump's term instead of waiting to bully a Democrat into inaction. He'd have had the Republicans on his side as allies eager for a little kleptocracy of their own. But who'd have guessed Trump's rot had sunk that deep?
Click to expand...


This is delusional and shows that you have not the slightest clue about what happened in Ukraine especially as to the Biden angle. Stay tuned.
 
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