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Put Options too coincidental?

Quad4_72

AI-EE-YAH!
Quad4_72
Joined
Nov 7, 2006
Messages
6,354
This is what I am being told over at screw loose change right now.

http://screwloosechange.xbehome.com/index.php?showtopic=1089

I have asked for various sorts of evidence but it is not working. He keeps applying probability (Poorly might I add) to the put options placed on 9/11.

I don't know much about the stock market, so this particular subject is hard for me to comment on. Basically he is saying that since the probability was so low that there must have been some foreknowledge of the attacks. Obviously, its ridiculous. He can't tell me who profited, how much they gained, who lost money, or why the people that lost money have not started an investigation. Anyone have anything else to add that has more to do with the stock market?
 
Coincidencies; hmm. Does that beat real evidence? Is it like a super trump card or something??
 
Architect said:
Coincidencies; hmm. Does that beat real evidence? Is it like a super trump card or something??
Click to expand...
its in 28ths list

* The tendency to deny, rather than doubt
* Double standards in the application of criticism
* The making of judgements without full inquiry
* Tendency to discredit, rather than investigate
* Use of ridicule or ad hominem attacks
* Presenting insufficient evidence or proof
* Pejorative labelling of proponents as 'promoters', 'pseudoscientists' or practitioners of 'pathological science.'
* Assuming criticism requires no burden of proof
* Making unsubstantiated counter-claims
* Counter-claims based on plausibility rather than empirical evidence
* Suggesting that unconvincing evidence is grounds for dismissing it
* Tendency to dismiss all evidence
Click to expand...
 
Yeah I will post that link up. My only problem with that is they always give the same response to those links. "Oh thats all you can do is link dump! Why don't you do your own research?" Stupid, yes. Of course they can never refute the link but oh well. Plus this particular nutter is trying to use probability for proof of a conspiracy. 911myths does not address that. (As they shouldn't because it is a terrible argument, but nevertheless...)
 
I like bringing up Allen Poteshman's work, as he's got a peer-reviewed paper saying that while the trading was unusual, it did not show foreknowledge of the attacks. The Paul Thompson Timeline tries to misrepresent his research.

Abstract
Full Paper
 
DarkMagician said:
I like bringing up Allen Poteshman's work, as he's got a peer-reviewed paper saying that while the trading was unusual, it did not show foreknowledge of the attacks. The Paul Thompson Timeline tries to misrepresent his research.

Abstract
Full Paper
Click to expand...

That should do it right there. That is quite the paper. I am learning a lot reading it. Thanks.
 
Continuing Professional Development. Statutory requirement on most chartered professionals to complete a certain amount of training each year or face disciplinary action (for example watching darts on tv, or listening to 28th drone on).
 
Quad4_72 said:
Yeah I will post that link up. My only problem with that is they always give the same response to those links. "Oh thats all you can do is link dump! Why don't you do your own research?" Stupid, yes. Of course they can never refute the link but oh well. Plus this particular nutter is trying to use probability for proof of a conspiracy. 911myths does not address that. (As they shouldn't because it is a terrible argument, but nevertheless...)
Click to expand...


I think the fact that the put options hit much higher levels on other days months prior to 9/11, and that no major terrorist attacks occured after those days, is probably enough to blow the probability theory out of the water.

Afterall, it's not like the put options actually went in ON 9/11.

Also this tends to disprove a Conspiracy. If you were involved in the mass murder of 3000 citizens, you'd want to keep it very quiet by not taking any action that might lead investigators to you!

The LAST thing a conspirator would do is do something that indicated they knew about 9/11 in advance. Such as buy put options on stocks for airlines involved...

(Interestingly, why did they buy stocks in UA and Boeing, but not AA?)

And some other questions...

What other put options were high on those days? Perhaps other airline companies that WEREN'T involved in 9/11?

-Gumboot
 
(Interestingly, why did they buy stocks in UA and Boeing, but not AA?)
Click to expand...
they did, AA puts were the highest for that year

of course this was the day after AA announced they expected record losses for q4 (after 2 previous quarters of losing money)

the problem is CTers attempt to show that these things could not happen by random chance, but outside of vegas and statistics classrooms almost nothing in our world is random, otehrwise investors woudl just throw darts at the business section and buy whatever stock they hit
 
Hey wait a minute M in the Bond movie Casino Royale said terrorists did some put options on the airlines before 9/11. Must be true.
 
gumboot said:
What other put options were high on those days? Perhaps other airline companies that WEREN'T involved in 9/11?

-Gumboot
Click to expand...

This is a great question and I dont have the answer, but I do know that my airline - which wasn't involved in 9/11 - had lost alot of money the previous quarter before 9/11 and were expecting to post a massive 4th quarter loss even before the attacks...

Airline Losses Widen - July '01
 
Stankeye said:
Hey wait a minute M in the Bond movie Casino Royale said terrorists did some put options on the airlines before 9/11. Must be true.
Click to expand...

Yea, and

1. you Americans recovered the Enigma machine

2. Memphis Belle was the true story of an American (hah) aircraft

3. WW1 was 1916-1919 (who the hell did you fight for the extra year??)

4. WW2 didn't start until, like, 1940 or 41.

It must be true, I've seen it in the movies......


;)
 
Perry, is that actually your own photo or is it someone famous I should recognise?

It's just it goes so well with the message you just posted!
 
Architect said:
2. Memphis Belle was the true story of an American (hah) aircraft
Click to expand...


Er... explain? Are you saying the Memphis Belle wasn't a B-17, or that the B-17 wasn't designed by a team of engineers from the Boeing aircraft company?

-Gumboot
 
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