Proof of Immortality, VII

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Jabba said:
Jay,
- You seem to be suggesting that the hypothesis was that now (the present time) is the present time. Is that what you mean?
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It isn't a hypothesis, it's a tautology. What, then, is the likelihood that this particular tautology is true? And do you find it surprising that, among all the possible tautologies, this particular one happens to be the one you're discussing?

Dave
 
Mojo said:
Jabba, what makes you think that the century between 1942 and 2042 is special?
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I suspect he was born in 1942 and expects to live to be 100. Picking a century starting with his birth would fit with the fundamental narcissism of his thesis and arguments.
 
Jabba, if everybody here and elsewhere agreed with you, how would you go about proving that immortality is real?

'Scuse me, virtually proving.
 
What are the odds of "now" being between 1942 and 2042? If you think that blows your mind, try this: What are the odds of "now" being between 1943 and 2043?
 
I'm just wondering: if Jabba had been born in 1842, would he have been amazed to find that it wasn't now?
 
Jabba said:
Dave,
- If that's your hypothesis, what's your event?
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The event is also that now is now. See how tautologies work? But then he said "any statistical system." You're the one making it all about your straw-man Bayes, which you evidently know very little about, and trying to shoehorn Dave's answers into something you foisted, not something he said. You're good at quote-mining tutorial web sites, but you are not very good and conveying the impression that you understand any of this. What is P(A|A), Jabba? C'mon, this one's an easy one. A "certified statistician" should be able to answer this without even expending a single neuron.

Let me illustrate to you the true power of Bayesian reasoning. You want to know what the probability is, given the Gregorian interval 1942-2042, that now (e.g., today) falls within that interval out of all the decade intervals in cosmological time. Well, see, Bayes lets me encode knowledge into the problem that isn't obtained grindingly in a vacuum via frequentist methods. Specifically it lets me encode the strong suspicion that you picked that interval nonrandomly, out of all available intervals to correspond to your lifetime, knowing full well that it will all but have to include any time point you personally could refer to as now. So a Bayesian inference, informally reckoned, lets me say that the probability is very high that now will fall into the interval you "arbitrarily" picked. Just like it's very high that the bullet hole will fall into the circle you "arbitrarily" drew after you fired the bullet.

See, you really don't know very much about this at all. You just throw around words and concepts that you pick up from web sites. But you really don't know what you're doing. And that has been the judgment of every signal statistician you asked. Every one, Jabba. You are not the teacher. You're not even a competent student.
 
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JayUtah said:
I'm asking you to compute P(A|A). What is the value of the likelihood expression P(A!A)?
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- You seem to be asking what is the likelihood of now being between 1942 and 2042 -- given that now is between 1942 and 2042. The answer to that question must be 1.00 -- but that isn't what I'm asking.
- I'm asking, "What is the likelihood that now is between 1942 and 2042 -- given that there are 140,000 100 year increments in all of time?" There is a difference between our questions -- and the answer to my question is 1/140,000.
- Besides that, what kind of question would ask for the likelihood of A -- given A?
 
Jabba said:
- You seem to be asking what is the likelihood of now being between 1942 and 2042 -- given that now is between 1942 and 2042. The answer to that question must be 1.00 -- but that isn't what I'm asking.
- I'm asking, "What is the likelihood that now is between 1942 and 2042 -- given that there are 140,000 100 year increments in all of time?" There is a difference between our questions -- and the answer to my question is 1/140,000.
- Besides that, what kind of question would ask for the likelihood of A -- given A?
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Quit trying to shove your pre-planned argument down my throat.
 
Jabba said:
- I'm asking, "What is the likelihood that now is between 1942 and 2042 -- given that there are 140,000 100 year increments in all of time?"
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Now is always now. That isn't surprising.

The answer to your question is the same as when it was asked in 1677. It was now then.

What are the odds that water is wet? Mind blown!
 
"Why are my actors being so difficult about just reading their lines so I can get this scene over with and move on to editing this thing!" - Jabba.
 
I'm horribly upset someone's already used the "We're at now now" scene from Spaceballs.
 
Jabba said:
- You seem to be asking what is the likelihood of now being between 1942 and 2042 -- given that now is between 1942 and 2042. The answer to that question must be 1.00 -- but that isn't what I'm asking.
- I'm asking, "What is the likelihood that now is between 1942 and 2042 -- given that there are 140,000 100 year increments in all of time?" There is a difference between our questions -- and the answer to my question is 1/140,000.- Besides that, what kind of question would ask for the likelihood of A -- given A?
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Texas sharpshooter again.

Hans :rolleyes:
 
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