The Norseman
Meandering fecklessly
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2008
- Messages
- 8,449
From the link, Jabba's OP reads in part: "- I seem to have written an 8 page paper virtually proving -- through Bayesian statistics -- that we are immortal (or something similar). Obviously, I must be doing something wrong..."It might be a good time to remind ourselves of how actual statisticians responded to Jabba's ideas: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/immortality-bayesian-statistics.60035/
Page 3 I find particularly instructive, as it's explained several times why P(me|~H) cannot be calculated from the other terms of the equation, even though Jabba's argument rests on calculating it in this way.
And this, I posit, is the only thing he's said that's actually correct. The rest... not so much...