Proof of Immortality, VII

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Mojo said:
Jabba,
- What is the likelihood that the ticket drawn is the winning ticket?
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Or even what is the likelihood of one of the tickets being sold being the winning ticket.

What are the odds my debit card number just happens to link to my bank account? What are the odds that the Social Security Administration just happened to assign me my SS#? What are the odds that I was born on my Birthday?

We can't dumb this down for you anymore Jabba.
 
SOdhner said:
We can talk all day about the nearly infinite variety of errors and fallacies presented by Jabba in this thread, but it's clear that the most fundamental issue is the Sharpshooter Fallacy.
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Jabba said:
- We have a lottery barrel of 100 tickets, one of those being yours. And your ticket was drawn. What is the likelihood of your ticket being drawn if this was a fair lottery?
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Literally the very next post.

Jabba, two things we need to get across to you:

1. In this scenario presumably the one you refer to as "your ticket" was assigned BEFORE the drawing, not after - right? As in, the tickets were numbered and prior to any drawing I would know that I would only win if the ticket with my specific number (let's say 22) was drawn? Do you understand that if I got to pick my number after the fact (as in, first ticket #22 is drawn and THEN I decide that's my ticket) then it's 100% chance that I'll win?

2. If every ticket belongs to someone, then once a ticket is drawn someone will win. So the chance of someone winning is 100%, and no matter which of the 100 people it is they can say "Golly, that's amazing! It was only a one in a hundred chance!" So there's a 100% chance that the winner will be only one in a hundred, which means it's not actually notable.

But as always, you won't understand that.
 
JayUtah said:
Your proof is tantamount to holding a blank raffle ticket, and then frantically scribbling the called-out number on it and waving it in the air and declaring how vastly improbable it was that you were selected.
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Mojo said:
Jabba,
- What is the likelihood that the ticket drawn is the winning ticket?
Click to expand...

JoeMorgue said:
Or even what is the likelihood of one of the tickets being sold being the winning ticket.

What are the odds my debit card number just happens to link to my bank account? What are the odds that the Social Security Administration just happened to assign me my SS#? What are the odds that I was born on my Birthday?

We can't dumb this down for you anymore Jabba.
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SOdhner said:
Jabba, two things we need to get across to you:

1. In this scenario presumably the one you refer to as "your ticket" was assigned BEFORE the drawing, not after - right? As in, the tickets were numbered and prior to any drawing I would know that I would only win if the ticket with my specific number (let's say 22) was drawn? Do you understand that if I got to pick my number after the fact (as in, first ticket #22 is drawn and THEN I decide that's my ticket) then it's 100% chance that I'll win?

2. If every ticket belongs to someone, then once a ticket is drawn someone will win. So the chance of someone winning is 100%, and no matter which of the 100 people it is they can say "Golly, that's amazing! It was only a one in a hundred chance!" So there's a 100% chance that the winner will be only one in a hundred, which means it's not actually notable.

But as always, you won't understand that.
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Every time the mistake Jabba is making is clearly spelled out for him I think "Surely he must finally understand it". But he never does.
 
Jabba said:
jsfisher said:
"Having observed 5 head-tosses in a row, what is the likelihood the coin is fair?"
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[...] approximately 99.7% (by my calculations).
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If evidence of Jabba's incompetence at statistical analysis were lacking, this would be all that was needed. A competent statistician would instantly recognise that this was an absurd answer.

Dave
 
Jabba said:
Dave,

- Given OOFLam, you're certainly correct.

- But forget the actual question for the moment, and just consider the lottery question.
- We have a lottery barrel of 100 tickets, one of those being yours. And your ticket was drawn. What is the likelihood of your ticket being drawn if this was a fair lottery?
- What if we have a computer containing a million numbered entrants, and the one entrant selected was you? What if we have a computer with 140,000,000 entrants?
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theprestige said:
None of the tickets in the barrel are his.

One of the tickets will become his after he draws it.

Why don't you take a moment to explain the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, in your own words.
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Mojo said:
Jabba,
- What is the likelihood that the ticket drawn is the winning ticket?
Click to expand...


I don't see how these replies can be any more clear. Jabba is at wonder of the minuscule odds of his existence. By the thinking he has expressed though, everything that exists in the universe has overcome equally minuscule odds. I'm looking around at my desk now; what are the odds that my pen is oriented just so? What are the odds that this notebook traveled through its manufacture, delivery to a store, and finally into my possession? These odds/probability/likelihood are so small...... immortality!
 
Jabba's admitted that these things are all cause-and-effect determined, as is his body. Now he's trying to avoid the consequences of this monumental blunder.
 
Jabba said:
Dave,

- Given OOFLam, you're certainly correct.

- But forget the actual question for the moment, and just consider the lottery question.
- We have a lottery barrel of 100 tickets, one of those being yours. And your ticket was drawn. What is the likelihood of your ticket being drawn if this was a fair lottery?
- What if we have a computer containing a million numbered entrants, and the one entrant selected was you? What if we have a computer with 140,000,000 entrants?
Click to expand...

godless dave said:
1/100. But that's a completely different question.



You already know the answers to these questions, and you already know that those are different situations than a human being born.
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- Anyway, I'm trying to propose an analogous question concerning time. My claim is that the likelihood of now being between 1942 and 2042 -- given that time (somehow) began 14 billion years ago, is at most 1/140,000,000, and extremely small whatever.
- Do you think that that claim makes any sense?
 
Jabba said:
- Anyway, I'm trying to propose an analogous question concerning time. My claim is that the likelihood of now being between 1942 and 2042 -- given that time (somehow) began 14 billion years ago, is at most 1/140,000,000, and extremely small whatever.
- Do you think that that claim makes any sense?
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No.
 
Jabba said:
My claim is that the likelihood of now being between 1942 and 2042 -- given that time (somehow) began 14 billion years ago, is at most 1/140,000,000, and extremely small whatever.
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No, you've already agreed that your existence is entirely causality dependant, and as such has a likelihood of 1 in 1.
 
Monza said:
I don't see how these replies can be any more clear. Jabba is at wonder of the minuscule odds of his existence. By the thinking he has expressed though, everything that exists in the universe has overcome equally minuscule odds. I'm looking around at my desk now; what are the odds that my pen is oriented just so? What are the odds that this notebook traveled through its manufacture, delivery to a store, and finally into my possession? These odds/probability/likelihood are so small...... immortality!
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Monza,
- I agree.
- I think that your objection is the Texas Sharpshooter objection, and I do see that as the weakest link in my argument -- but then, I don't think that it really applies. My discussion of that issue is hilited below in two sections.

Edited by jsfisher: 
Edited for compliance with Rule 4 of the Membership Agreement:

See http://messiahornot.helpwithyourwebsite.com/index.php/13-1/, points 5 and 19 through 28
 
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Jabba said:
- Anyway, I'm trying to propose an analogous question concerning time. My claim is that the likelihood of now being between 1942 and 2042 -- given that time (somehow) began 14 billion years ago, is at most 1/140,000,000, and extremely small whatever.
- Do you think that that claim makes any sense?
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godless dave said:
No.
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Dave,
- That's the problem.
- If you have any friendly experts in Bayesian Inference (not including guys on this forum) ask them if my claim above makes sense.
- However, there are three guys on this forum that do seem to be experts -- Caveman, tj and humots. I would like to hear what they have to say about my claim above.
 
Jabba said:
Monza,
- I agree.
- I think that your objection is the Texas Sharpshooter objection, and I do see that as the weakest link in my argument -- but then, I don't think that it really applies. My discussion of that issue is hilited below in two sections...<much snippage>...73. P(H|E) = 0.
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Jabba:

You just posted this exact argument a few pages ago. It was thoroughly addressed. It is not seen as the weakest link; it is a broken link. A fatal flaw, if you will. You are repeating an argument that was proven wrong. Why?

Looking back over this massive thread, it seems that all responses could literally be 'addressed upthread'.
 
Jabba said:
Dave,
- That's the problem.
- If you have any friendly experts in Bayesian Inference (not including guys on this forum) ask them if my claim above makes sense.
- However, there are three guys on this forum that do seem to be experts -- Caveman, tj and humots. I would like to hear what they have to say about my claim above.
Click to expand...

What does "the likelihood of now" even mean? "Now" is a relative term.
 
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