Proof of Immortality, VI

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Apt Lottery Analogy?

I may regret brining this up to add another potential distraction to all the many others. But I was just thinking that the Lottery allusion is apt but not in the way that Jabba thinks.

In a lottery you are the pulled NUMBERS not the ticket holder. The number is not predetermined and is the result of a process that is complex and impossible to predict but has boundaries. As each number is selected the randomness of potential outcomes shrinks but is no more predictable. After the fact, once all the numbers are pulled no one is amazed that this specific set of numbers was pulled. Because if it wasn’t this one, it would be another set of numbers that were just as unlikely. But a set of numbers WILL result from the process.
 
I may regret brining this up to add another potential distraction to all the many others. But I was just thinking that the Lottery allusion is apt but not in the way that Jabba thinks.

In a lottery you are the pulled NUMBERS not the ticket holder. The number is not predetermined and is the result of a process that is complex and impossible to predict but has boundaries. As each number is selected the randomness of potential outcomes shrinks but is no more predictable. After the fact, once all the numbers are pulled no one is amazed that this specific set of numbers was pulled. Because if it wasn’t this one, it would be another set of numbers that were just as unlikely. But a set of numbers WILL result from the process.


Jabba has been told this many times. He, and at least one of his defenders, argues that if a lottery had enough numbers it would be impossible for a particular set of numbers to be drawn.
 
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There's no reason to think my brain is capable of understanding everything...
Dave,
- Sure. But, that doesn't mean that you should just accept acclaimed -- or apparent -- facts when they don't make sense to you. And actually, I'm sure that you have not done that -- just that your overall inference/conclusion regarding these issues (materialism and mortality) is different than mine.
- 'Unfortunately,' I have come to the tentative conclusion that reality is actually more than science (and cause and effect) can effectively address. IOW, I tend to believe in magic...
- I tend to actually believe in free will, though it doesn't make any sense at all. I also tend to believe in ultimate meaning -- i.e., good and bad, right and wrong -- though science would seem to dismiss such ideas outright.

- And, I suspect that this is where you and I diverge.
- What do you think about free will and ultimate meaning? I claim that if you believe in either one, you believe in magic.

- I had best leave it at that for now.
 
Dave,
- Sure. But, that doesn't mean that you should just accept acclaimed -- or apparent -- facts when they don't make sense to you. And actually, I'm sure that you have not done that -- just that your overall inference/conclusion regarding these issues (materialism and mortality) is different than mine.
- 'Unfortunately,' I have come to the tentative conclusion that reality is actually more than science (and cause and effect) can effectively address. IOW, I tend to believe in magic...

Then we're done. There's no sense trying to prove magic with Bayesian statistics.

I don't believe in true free will.

I don't believe in ultimate meaning at all.
 
- Sure. But, that doesn't mean that you should just accept acclaimed -- or apparent -- facts when they don't make sense to you.

No, it indeed doesn't. You know what it does mean? It means you should educate yourself so that you can make sense of it.

Not, as you've done, simply insist that reality somehow conforms to your every belief.

- 'Unfortunately,' I have come to the tentative conclusion that reality is actually more than science (and cause and effect) can effectively address. IOW, I tend to believe in magic...

Yes because it suits you. Part of growing up and becoming an adult is realising that things that don't suit you happen, including death.

- I tend to actually believe in free will, though it doesn't make any sense at all.

It makes a lot of sense. It's just wrong.
 
Dave,
- Sure. But, that doesn't mean that you should just accept acclaimed -- or apparent -- facts when they don't make sense to you. And actually, I'm sure that you have not done that -- just that your overall inference/conclusion regarding these issues (materialism and mortality) is different than mine.
- 'Unfortunately,' I have come to the tentative conclusion that reality is actually more than science (and cause and effect) can effectively address. IOW, I tend to believe in magic...
- I tend to actually believe in free will, though it doesn't make any sense at all. I also tend to believe in ultimate meaning -- i.e., good and bad, right and wrong -- though science would seem to dismiss such ideas outright.

- And, I suspect that this is where you and I diverge.
- What do you think about free will and ultimate meaning? I claim that if you believe in either one, you believe in magic.

- I had best leave it at that for now.

How about doing as you were nicely asked and sticking to the topic rather than every magical musing that pops in your mind?
 
Dave,
- Sure. But, that doesn't mean that you should just accept acclaimed -- or apparent -- facts when they don't make sense to you.

The best approach is to read up on the topic or talk to subject matter experts.

If you don't understand how something works (I.e. Baysian Statistics) consult the knowledgeable experts for a better under standing of the process... THEN ACCEPT THIER FEEDBACK and ADJUST YOUR THINKING.

You are like a color blind person in a new outfit. You think it looks awesome. The wife says it clashes terribly, you say it doesn't to me. You offer to get a second opinion from the fashion designer next door. They say its a horrid combo and shame the wife for letting you outside the house like that. Well it looks good to you, therefore it must be good regardless of what they say.
 
But, that doesn't mean that you should just accept acclaimed -- or apparent -- facts when they don't make sense to you.

Unfortunately you've shown several times in this debate that your thinking is just too limited to understand anything you don't already believe in. You've subsequently shown that you are completely impervious to any and all attempts to educate you on points you don't yet already grasp. It's not as if you're being asked to take anything on faith. You've literally had dozens of people over the better part of five years attempting to correct your errors and explain things to you, and you simply ignore them. And that's not just an ISF phenomenon either; it happened elsewhere, and people came to the conclusion that you simply had no interest in what anyone else says.

If after all that it still doesn't "make sense," then that's clearly on you, and it doesn't excuse the failure of your proof. When all the evidence shows that you are ineducable, the "I don't have to accept anything I don't understand" argument falls comically flat. It's just barely-concealed denialism. You have several times tried to claim you aren't responsible for things you don't understand, and it is apparent to your critics that this is a dodge.

'Unfortunately,' I have come to the tentative conclusion that reality is actually more than science (and cause and effect) can effectively address.

Yes, you've suggested several times in this debate that science is just to clumsy and blind to address the "evidence" you think you have -- which, of course, you don't have. Which is just the standard fringe claimant's way of trying to excuse his failure by casting vague aspersions on science and scientific methodology. "Your puny science has no power to refute me, blah blah blah." Unfortunately you specifically said you could provide a mathematical proof. You say you can prove your proposition within the boundaries of rational skepticism, so you don't get to play the "science is blind" card.

Nor does the "hobbled science" argument matter in the slightest for P(E|H). If you're going to go the Bayesian route, there is no way to avoid reckoning P(E|H) as if H were true. H is materialism. By definition, under materialism, there is no reality that cannot be cause-and-effect traceable to the material. Your attempts to falsify H by reckoning P(E|H) as very small rely on your belief that H is improbable. You tell us that's for reasons such as not being able to explain aspects of a reality that, for you, necessarily features immaterial factors you conjure into a pseudo-existence with nothing more than a wishful wave of the hand. Your inability to see this as blatantly circular reasoning, and blatantly wrong from a statistical-inference standpoint, is why you don't seem to see just how obviously wrong your proof is.

IOW, I tend to believe in magic...

We believe in facts and math. You came here to prove your belief in immortality according to those things. Now it appears you're admitting you can't, and that your proof only works if people believe in your brand of magic. A proof is meant to show the truth of a proposition to people who don't already believe it. Your "proof" seems to only work for people who already accept its conclusion.

I tend to actually...<remainder of pseudo-philosophical rambling snipped>

And, I suspect that this is where you and I diverge.

Where we diverge is where you claim to be able to prove all this mathematically, but then have to invoke magic and also insist that science is blind to evidence that would somehow vindicate you. Your outline for your proof is quite literally to beg your critics to accept your special pleading and begged questions as if those didn't matter.

I had best leave it at that for now.

There is no "for now," Jabba, that helps you in this debate. You've quite clearly conceded that you can't prove your point without invoking magic. But of course you won't concede and give your critics their justly earned praise for having successfully refuted you. You'll just say you think you're still right anyway, and insinuate that your critics are too benighted to understand your particular genius. Your behavior here is far more consistent with an ego-reinforcement exercise than it is with any sort of scientific or mathematical investigation.
 
Dave,
- Sure. But, that doesn't mean that you should just accept acclaimed -- or apparent -- facts when they don't make sense to you. [...]

You make false appeals to established maths, logic and science all the time, when they clearly make no sense to you.

:facepalm:
 
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Dave,
- Sure. But, that doesn't mean that you should just accept acclaimed -- or apparent -- facts when they don't make sense to you. And actually, I'm sure that you have not done that -- just that your overall inference/conclusion regarding these issues (materialism and mortality) is different than mine.
- 'Unfortunately,' I have come to the tentative conclusion that reality is actually more than science (and cause and effect) can effectively address. IOW, I tend to believe in magic...
- I tend to actually believe in free will, though it doesn't make any sense at all. I also tend to believe in ultimate meaning -- i.e., good and bad, right and wrong -- though science would seem to dismiss such ideas outright.

- And, I suspect that this is where you and I diverge.
- What do you think about free will and ultimate meaning? I claim that if you believe in either one, you believe in magic.

- I had best leave it at that for now.

Yes and so? Read your Crowley or Starhawk, magic follows rules as well and should be and can be investigated using science...

Just because you use a term 'magic' 'free will' or 'existence' does not mean that anything goes... I can not just free will myself in levitation. I can however use a car or airplane to travel great distances.

Philosophical naturalism is all we have.
 
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But, that doesn't mean that you should just accept acclaimed -- or apparent -- facts when they don't make sense to you.

Bull. YOU are not the arbitrator of what makes sense.

And let me be clear. When I say "you" I don't mean the generic, general "you."

I mean you specifically. You simply don't have the grasp of simple logic, reason, cause and effect, and science to act like you know what you are talking about.

Like I said earlier there are people out there that what they are talking enough so their "gut feelings" carry at least some weight.

You are not one of those people.
 
'Unfortunately,' I have come to the tentative conclusion that reality is actually more than science (and cause and effect) can effectively address. IOW, I tend to believe in magic


Jabba -

Do you believe that having a soul and being immortal is demonstrable within the bounds of cause and effect, or do you believe that it is "actually more"?
 
Jabba,
You may rejoice for ~H does include hypotheses where magic is in play...but that still doesn't help you with estimating P(E,H).
 
Jabba,
You may rejoice for ~H does include hypotheses where magic is in play...but that still doesn't help you with estimating P(E,H).

My impression is that Jabba wants all the "magic" to be included in E. Whereas in a proper inference, E would be the simple observation that a human exists as a self-aware organism, Jabba wants to festoon E with all the pseudo-mystical mumbo-jumbo of "free will" and "ultimate meaning" so that his subjective amazement at his own navel translates into a reality (E) that "science cannot effectively address." He's begging the question that E includes elements that are there, but which science cannot detect. And that's not science as in H, the materialistic model, but science as in the empiricism that gives us E. He really wants E to be more than just a self-aware organism.
 
My impression is that Jabba wants all the "magic" to be included in E. Whereas in a proper inference, E would be the simple observation that a human exists as a self-aware organism, Jabba wants to festoon E with all the pseudo-mystical mumbo-jumbo of "free will" and "ultimate meaning" so that his subjective amazement at his own navel translates into a reality (E) that "science cannot effectively address." He's begging the question that E includes elements that are there, but which science cannot detect. And that's not science as in H, the materialistic model, but science as in the empiricism that gives us E. He really wants E to be more than just a self-aware organism.


What his argument comes down to is that if H is false, H is false.
 
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