Presidential Primaries 2016

[Ladewig]

Except, Ladewig, I gonna guess that the Elephants learned from the 2012 clown parade that that is not the way to go. There'll be far fewer debates and only the serious nutjobs will be invited. For example, no more Mr. 9-9-9s will be spouting horse manure.

Two points.

The debate-invitation-list issue assumes that a great number of primary voters listen carefully to the questions and answers before rationally weighing the evidence and making a decision. I am not convinced that either party's primary voters have a firm grip on that approach.

With enough name-recognition, well-timed expenditures, charisma¹ and luck, one can be a front-runner without going to the debates.

I still posit that even in its best years, the primary process is not designed to select the best presidential candidate.

(1) charisma as measured by Iowans.

 

[Ladewig]

One more

Except, Ladewig, I gonna guess that the Elephants learned from the 2012 clown parade that that is not the way to go.

I find it useful to never underestimate the Democrats' ability to lose an election and the Republicans' ability to not learn from the past.

 

[SezMe]

The debate-invitation-list issue assumes that a great number of primary voters listen carefully to the questions and answers before rationally weighing the evidence and making a decision. I am not convinced that either party's primary voters have a firm grip on that approach.

Completely agree.

I still posit that even in its best years, the primary process is not designed to select the best presidential candidate.

Empirical evidence suggests you're right (Palin, for god's sake?!?!?!) but I would be hard pressed to design a system that would, in fact, find the best candidates. A long time ago when, once again, the nation was facing a slate of lackluster candidates, a magazine (I really don't remember which one) ran a story entitled something like, "Why can't we vote for these people" which listed ~20 or so people that you and I had never heard of but reading their resumes and list of accomplishments, one could not help but be really impressed.

I find it useful to never underestimate the Democrats' ability to lose an election and the Republicans' ability to not learn from the past.

Completely agree.

 

[hgc]

With one of the most reliable indicators of intent to run for president, M. Huckabee has departed his job at Fox News. I expect he'll be claiming his dot by March, riding the crest of the upcoming wave of speculative attention.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...talk-show-weighs-presidential-run-113948.html

 

[Ladewig]

Completely agree.


Empirical evidence suggests you're right (Palin, for god's sake?!?!?!) but I would be hard pressed to design a system that would, in fact, find the best candidates.

I too would be hard pressed. But at the very minimum, I would not have one state that insisted on having a primary before any other state. I am not saying all 50 states would have to do it simultaneously, but at the very minimum, 15 diverse states should be in the first group of primaries.

Plus, we now have the technology to very easily use ranked voting or approval voting or other alternative methods.

I would even consider back-room bargaining during the political convention. I am not convinced it would be better, but I am not convinced it would be worse.

 

[Spindrift]

I see there's a draft Ben Carson movement.

I have to give the Republican's their due. They definitely have a much more entertaining primary season than the Democrats. Democrats haven't been that much fun since the olden days of Gary Hart/Jesse Jackson/John Glenn/Walter Mondale in 1984.

 

[Puppycow]

Empirical evidence suggests you're right (Palin, for god's sake?!?!?!)

Palin was not selected by the primary process.

 

[hgc]

P. Ryan, lately of VP candidate fame, has resisted the groundswell of support and decided to forego running for president for another 4 years. Alas, he weren't going to be the most interesting goofball on the stage, but he will be missed nonetheless.

GOP
P. Ryan
C. Christie
M. Rubio
J. Bush •
M. Bachmann
W. "M." Romney
S. Palin (ready-made for Jerry Springer)
M. Huckabee
T. Pawlenty
J. Thune
S. Walker
D. Trump, President of Never Gonna Run for President (and Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
R. Paul (le fils)
J. DeMint
N. Haley
S. Martinez
R. Santorum (GOP first) •
M. Pence
C. Rice
R. "T." Cruz
P. "B." Jindal
J. Brewer
J. Kasich
B. Carson
R. "B." McDonnell
J. Huntsman
T. Nugent (Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
P. King
J. Bolton (Funny facial hair never wins)
H. Cain
J. Scarborough
M. Rogers
M. Blackburn
A. West
R. Perry
C. Fiorina
L. Graham (J. McCain's endorsement part of the package)

Dem
H. Clinton
J. Biden
M. Warner
M. O’Malley
A. Klobuchar
C. Booker
A. Villaraigosa
B. Schweitzer
K. Gillibrand
A. Cuomo
R. Emmanuel
M. Cantwell
E. Warren
Ju. Castro
D. Patrick
H. Dean
E.G. "J." Brown
J. Webb (overall first) •

Indeterminate
M. Bloomberg
J. Ventura
B. Sanders (switching soon to Dem list?)

 

[Brainster]

I was astounded to learn that Elizabeth Warren is only 18 months younger than Hillary Clinton. Given that Hill, should she decide to run, would be bidding to become the second oldest person elected to a first term (after Reagan), it seems that 2016 will be Warren's only realistic opportunity.

 

[Puppycow]

I was astounded to learn that Elizabeth Warren is only 18 months younger than Hillary Clinton. Given that Hill, should she decide to run, would be bidding to become the second oldest person elected to a first term (after Reagan), it seems that 2016 will be Warren's only realistic opportunity.

Nice avatar there. Did you lose a bet?

As to Warren's age, eventually someone will probably surpass Reagan, and on average women have a life expectancy 5 years longer than men. 2020 is not inconceivable. Even if Hillary wins in 2016, she could conceivably pull a Ted Kennedy and challenge her in 2020 if she is not so popular.

 

[theprestige]

I was astounded to learn that Elizabeth Warren is only 18 months younger than Hillary Clinton. Given that Hill, should she decide to run, would be bidding to become the second oldest person elected to a first term (after Reagan), it seems that 2016 will be Warren's only realistic opportunity.

Nice avatar there. Did you lose a bet?

As to Warren's age, eventually someone will probably surpass Reagan, and on average women have a life expectancy 5 years longer than men. 2020 is not inconceivable. Even if Hillary wins in 2016, she could conceivably pull a Ted Kennedy and challenge her in 2020 if she is not so popular.

Also, don't forget that Native Americans age really well.

 

[Puppycow]

Dot time for Romney?

Romney moves to reassemble campaign team for ‘almost certain’ 2016 bid

Mitt Romney is moving quickly to reassemble his national political network, calling former aides, donors and other supporters over the weekend and on Monday in a concerted push to signal his seriousness about possibly launching a 2016 presidential campaign.

Romney’s message, as he told one senior Republican, was that he “almost certainly will” make what would be his third bid for the White House. His aggressive outreach came as Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) — Romney’s 2012 vice presidential running mate and the newly installed chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee — announced Monday that he would not seek the presidency in 2016.

Romney’s activity indicates that his declaration of interest Friday to a group of 30 donors in New York was more than the release of a trial balloon. Instead, it was the start of a deliberate effort by the 2012 nominee to carve out space for himself in an emerging 2016 field also likely to include former Florida governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

Romney has worked the phones over the past few days, calling an array of key allies to discuss his potential 2016 campaign. Among them was Ryan, whom Romney phoned over the weekend to inform him personally of his plans to probably run. Ryan was encouraging, people with knowledge of the calls said.

 

[Brainster]

Nice avatar there. Did you lose a bet?

Just thought it was funny; my avatar before that was pajama boy. Irony is my thing.

As to Warren's age, eventually someone will probably surpass Reagan, and on average women have a life expectancy 5 years longer than men. 2020 is not inconceivable. Even if Hillary wins in 2016, she could conceivably pull a Ted Kennedy and challenge her in 2020 if she is not so popular.

The issue is not longevity; it is more about the capacity for hard work at that age. Women are actually more at risk for Alzheimer's than men, even when the longer lifespan is controlled for.

 

[hgc]

Dot time for Romney?

Romney moves to reassemble campaign team for ‘almost certain’ 2016 bid

Coming soon. He needs to say something openly. I suspect he'll announce exploratory committee in mid-late Feb.

 

[Spindrift]

Just thought it was funny; my avatar before that was pajama boy. Irony is my thing.

Not really.

The issue is not longevity; it is more about the capacity for hard work at that age. Women are actually more at risk for Alzheimer's than men, even when the longer lifespan is controlled for.

That job is beyond hard work. It seems to accelerate the aging process.

 

[Tony Stark]

The person who comes out of this analysis with the best odds is Ted Cruz. He’s crazy enough to line up with every passionately irrational priority of the current GOP base. He’s as well known among Republican primary voters as any other candidate. As ideologically batty as he is, he is a ruthlessly savvy operator who is unlikely to make stupid mistakes. No other wacko bird can stack up the same dark list of qualifications.

Jeb Bush will probably lose because he’s using a well-worn playbook whose relevance has expired. Could he adapt? Yes, but probably the only way a sane, rational Republican candidate can win the nomination in 2016 is to use the 2000 playbook – the other one. McCain’s 2000 campaign would be a blockbuster today.

http://goplifer.com/2015/01/13/why-jeb-will-probably-lose/

I actually hope that Ted Cruz wins the nomination. He and other conservative whackos argue that McCain and Romney lost because they weren't conservative enough. I can't even imagine what the excuses will be if Hillary or whomever curb stomps Cruz but they should be highly amusing.

 

[grunion]

"A very prominent conservative Republican consultant called me last night and said that he spoke to Ann Romney over the weekend and Ann said if Mitt runs, he will run as the first divorced Mormon candidate for the president of the United States."

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/republicans-polls/2015/01/13/id/618393/

 

[hgc]

Here's a sleeper candidate. L. Graham, senator from South Carolina.

Here he is on Meet the Press, explaining in the most tortured locution possible that he is forming an exploratory committee. You want people to stay awake when you talk? Cut to the point.

"... but we set up a testing-the-waters committee under the IRS code that will allow me to look beyond South Carolina as to whether or not a guy like Lindsey Graham has a viable path."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/lindsey-graham-2016-elections-south-carolina-114362.html

Also, funny coincidence -- the only dot on the Dem list is with the man at the bottom of the list (meaning: added last). Now, and early entrant on the GOP side is also at the bottom of the list.

GOP
P. Ryan
C. Christie
M. Rubio
J. Bush •
M. Bachmann
W. "M." Romney
S. Palin (ready-made for Jerry Springer)
M. Huckabee
T. Pawlenty
J. Thune
S. Walker
D. Trump, President of Never Gonna Run for President (and Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
R. Paul (le fils)
J. DeMint
N. Haley
S. Martinez
R. Santorum (GOP first) •
M. Pence
C. Rice
R. "T." Cruz
P. "B." Jindal
J. Brewer
J. Kasich
B. Carson
R. "B." McDonnell
J. Huntsman
T. Nugent (Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
P. King
J. Bolton (Funny facial hair never wins)
H. Cain
J. Scarborough
M. Rogers
M. Blackburn
A. West
R. Perry
C. Fiorina
L. Graham • (countdown to J. McCain endorsement)

Dem
H. Clinton
J. Biden
M. Warner
M. O’Malley
A. Klobuchar
C. Booker
A. Villaraigosa
B. Schweitzer
K. Gillibrand
A. Cuomo
R. Emmanuel
M. Cantwell
E. Warren
Ju. Castro
D. Patrick
H. Dean
E.G. "J." Brown
J. Webb (overall first) •

Indeterminate
M. Bloomberg
J. Ventura
B. Sanders (switching soon to Dem list?)

 

[maxpower1227]

http://goplifer.com/2015/01/13/why-jeb-will-probably-lose/

I actually hope that Ted Cruz wins the nomination. He and other conservative whackos argue that McCain and Romney lost because they weren't conservative enough. I can't even imagine what the excuses will be if Hillary or whomever curb stomps Cruz but they should be highly amusing.

You can't? That's easy: voter fraud. They've been whining about "voter fraud" for the past several election cycles, win or lose. Why should 2016 be any different?

 

[Spindrift]

http://goplifer.com/2015/01/13/why-jeb-will-probably-lose/

I actually hope that Ted Cruz wins the nomination. He and other conservative whackos argue that McCain and Romney lost because they weren't conservative enough. I can't even imagine what the excuses will be if Hillary or whomever curb stomps Cruz but they should be highly amusing.

I heard Cruz blame the Dole/McCain/Romney losses on moving to the center which caused people to stay home from the polls. I think it was people going to the polls that caused their losses, not the ones that stayed home.