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Presidential Primaries 2016

So, is the consensus that Hillary is the shoo-in candidate, provided she actually throws her hat in the ring?

I just saw an entire Metro bus painted with "Go Hillary!" graphics... Folks are sure expecting her to run.

I don't see much of anyone talking about anyone else at this point. Good idea? Hillary is arguably competent but she has an awful lot of baggage, and there is a pretty high degree of Hillary hate out there.. Especially amongst my (admittedly right-leaning) colleagues.
 
Bikewer said:
So, is the consensus that Hillary is the shoo-in candidate, provided she actually throws her hat in the ring?

I just saw an entire Metro bus painted with "Go Hillary!" graphics... Folks are sure expecting her to run.

I don't see much of anyone talking about anyone else at this point. Good idea? Hillary is arguably competent but she has an awful lot of baggage, and there is a pretty high degree of Hillary hate out there.. Especially amongst my (admittedly right-leaning) colleagues.
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I don't think she's a shoo-in. My contention all along is that what happened in 2008 will happen again. Hillary will start as the favorite, but someone (I have no idea who) will come out of nowhere and take the nomination.

And again the Republicans will help whoever that person is, because they will be campaigning against Hillary the entire time.
 
Spindrift said:
I don't think she's a shoo-in. My contention all along is that what happened in 2008 will happen again. Hillary will start as the favorite, but someone (I have no idea who) will come out of nowhere and take the nomination.

And again the Republicans will help whoever that person is, because they will be campaigning against Hillary the entire time.
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While the B. Obama 2008 situation was a very fluky, and though I think it's more likely than not that H. Clinton will be the Dem nominee, it's distinctly possible that she'll be upended. And that's only because she has terrible political skills (on the public presentation side, not on the deal-making, constituency-service side). I am aghast when I hear her tortured attempts at threading needles that should be simply brushed aside. She's way too careful, and it shows up as policy insincerity.

Worry, I do. Not that she will be beaten by another Dem, but by the prospect of her being nominated and blowing it.
 
hgc said:
While the B. Obama 2008 situation was a very fluky, and though I think it's more likely than not that H. Clinton will be the Dem nominee, it's distinctly possible that she'll be upended. And that's only because she has terrible political skills (on the public presentation side, not on the deal-making, constituency-service side). I am aghast when I hear her tortured attempts at threading needles that should be simply brushed aside. She's way too careful, and it shows up as policy insincerity.

Worry, I do. Not that she will be beaten by another Dem, but by the prospect of her being nominated and blowing it.
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C'mon, if Hillary was good at blowing it we would have never heard of Monica Lewinsky.
 
hgc said:
Is that a first dot prediction, Puppycow?
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Uh, sure, why not. What are your criteria again? An official announcement or just obvious signs that they are going to run, like hiring campaign staff, fundraising and such? Because if it's the latter, this story seems to have it.

ETA: I'll say this: I don't know if Huckabee will be the first dot, but I'm quite convinced that he will have a dot eventually. Any probably within 6 months.
 
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Bikewer said:
So, is the consensus that Hillary is the shoo-in candidate, provided she actually throws her hat in the ring?

I just saw an entire Metro bus painted with "Go Hillary!" graphics... Folks are sure expecting her to run.

I don't see much of anyone talking about anyone else at this point. Good idea? Hillary is arguably competent but she has an awful lot of baggage, and there is a pretty high degree of Hillary hate out there.. Especially amongst my (admittedly right-leaning) colleagues.
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I wouldn't say "shoo-in" because I don't think anyone is ever a "shoo-in" for president. Something could always derail a presidential campaign.

However, I will say that she as close as it gets this far before an election. I don't know of any comparable case where one candidate has been so far ahead in the polls this early in the election season. And that includes Hillary herself in 2008 of course. She almost won that time. It really was a hard-fought battle for the nomination, and she actually got more votes than Obama. He won by getting more superdelegates and because some of the states she won had their delegates cut in half for jumping line in the primary season.

I also don't really buy the idea that somebody who isn't on our radar at all yet will swoop in and steal the nomination like Obama did in 2008. And Obama was not a complete unknown before that either.

Here's good site to see the polls, btw:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16dem.htm
 
SezMe said:
Hey, hgc, at the risk of bending the innertubes with so many names, you might want to add Carly Fiorina to the list. Gag!
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1 page and 2 months ago, you suggested C. Fiorina, and I did add her then. Thanks for this link, since in it she launches the classic BS:

Well, when people ask you over and over again, you have to pause and reflect. So I’ll pause and reflect at the right time.
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Is she waiting for the right time to pause? What does the pre-pause activity look like?
 
hgc said:
1 page and 2 months ago, you suggested C. Fiorina, and I did add her then. Thanks for this link, since in it she launches the classic BS:



Is she waiting for the right time to pause? What does the pre-pause activity look like?
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I think she might be missing a little inflection.

"Are you running for president?", he asked, incredulously.
 
We have our first dot! And it's a dark horse, indeed. J. Webb, former senator from Virginia, has announced he will see the Democratic Party's nomination.

GOP
P. Ryan
C. Christie
M. Rubio
J. Bush
M. Bachmann
W. "M." Romney
S. Palin (ready-made for Jerry Springer)
M. Huckabee
T. Pawlenty
J. Thune
S. Walker
D. Trump, President of Never Gonna Run for President (and Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
R. Paul (le fils)
J. DeMint
N. Haley
S. Martinez
R. Santorum
M. Pence
C. Rice
R. "T." Cruz
P. "B." Jindal
J. Brewer
J. Kasich
B. Carson
R. "B." McDonnell
J. Huntsman
T. Nugent (Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
P. King
J. Bolton (Funny facial hair never wins)
H. Cain
J. Scarborough
M. Rogers
M. Blackburn
A. West
R. Perry
C. Fiorina
L. Graham (J. McCain's endorsement part of the package)

Dem
H. Clinton
J. Biden
M. Warner
M. O’Malley
A. Klobuchar
C. Booker
A. Villaraigosa
B. Schweitzer
K. Gillibrand
A. Cuomo
R. Emmanuel
M. Cantwell
E. Warren
Ju. Castro
D. Patrick
H. Dean
E.G. "J." Brown
J. Webb (overall first) •

Indeterminate
M. Bloomberg
J. Ventura
B. Sanders (switching soon to Dem list?)
 
Already?

Well I did say the following:

Puppycow said:
Prolly one of the lower-profile candidates will be the first to "officially" announce.
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Of course, these days everyone announces an exploratory committee first, so they can get 2 news cycles of attention instead of one.
 
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