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Presidential Primaries 2016

Early yet and Maryland hasn't started counting, but looks like Trump is going to sweep all five states, just a question of how large a margin, and Cruz may follow his thumping in New York by finishing third in all five races tonight.

Hillary leads in Delaware and Bernie in RI, both by substantial margins, and they've called Maryland for Clinton before a single vote has been counted (must be some very convincing exit polls there). But CT is still close, giving Sanders hopes for two wins tonight, albeit if he loses PA (only 2% of the vote so far, all from Philly) Clinton will get the lion's share of delegates again tonight.

I'm following on: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results Some nice detail work there.
 
Sanders has RI, Clinton PA, MD, DE and they are about tied in CT but while Sanders is 1% ahead, that's going to flip given the counties that are 100% in vs those that aren't. It's moot though, they'll split the delegates 50:50 in CT.

Clinton will have roughly 255 more delegates going by the current proportions. Including her superdelegates who have no reason to switch to Sanders she ends up with ~2203 delegates tonight. She needs 180 to reach a majority.

They are tied in Indiana currently in the polls. Sanders is ahead in W Virginia (with only one poll from Feb). Kentucky is an unknown given the one poll is a year old but with 90% white, Sanders will likely win. Same with Oregon. If Clinton does poorly in those three states and ties in Indiana, she'll still only need ~100 more delegates by June 7th.

Fortunately for the country, Sanders is not giving any indication of running as an independent. He no doubt knows better than to turn the country over to Trump or Cruz.

Unfortunately for Sanders donors, he's going to keep telling them he has a path to win until June 7th. Apparently he's not above lying to his donors to keep the money coming in. That an interesting development.
 
According to 538 projections, Trump has won 111 out of 118 pledged delegates. In all likelihood, most of the other delegates from Pennsylvania will end up supporting Trump at the convention too. Many of them promised to vote according to how their district voted or according to the statewide vote, and I think all the districts went for Trump. According to the betting odds, his odds of being the nominee went up over 5%.

Trump: 'It's over'

Donald Trump declared himself the “presumptive nominee” of the Republican Party after he won five Northeastern states in a landslide and set his sights on taking down Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

"I consider myself the presumptive nominee, absolutely," the real estate mogul said in a speech at Trump Tower in New York, after he won Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island and Connecticut. “As far as I am concerned, it’s over,” he declared.
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He also hinted that he'll change his tone as a general election candidate and preemptively defended the evolution. “I may act differently, but my thought process is the same," he said.
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IOW, don't be fooled by his "pivot" when it comes.
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
I missed Sanders' town hall but Clinton is having a killer night. I don't for the life of me understand how people can ignore the incredible competence and experience Clinton has and just judge her on gossip and innuendo. I truly don't.
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Pretty sure no one is ignoring Clinton's competence and experience.

A lot of people would simply prefer competence and experience used for the benefit of people other than Chevron, Wal-Mart, and Goldman Sachs. I'm entirely sure President Clinton will fulfill her obligations to them with an experienced competence second to none. I just don't think it's a good thing.
 
Can you feel it?

Nationalism is returning both here in the U.S. and over in the soon to be abolished E.U.

No matter what happens re: Trump himself, he's an indicator.
 
quixotecoyote said:
Pretty sure no one is ignoring Clinton's competence and experience.

A lot of people would simply prefer competence and experience used for the benefit of people other than Chevron, Wal-Mart, and Goldman Sachs. I'm entirely sure President Clinton will fulfill her obligations to them with an experienced competence second to none. I just don't think it's a good thing.
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But her entire record is not one of only benefitting big money. That's a complete distortion of her actual record.


It's moot now, according to the pledged delegate and superdelegate counts on the NYTs delegate tracking site, Clinton needs about 200 delegates and Sanders needs 1,000. There are about 1,200 delegate left. Sanders needs almost all of the remaining delegates, an impossibility at this point.
 
quixotecoyote said:
Pretty sure no one is ignoring Clinton's competence and experience.

A lot of people would simply prefer competence and experience used for the benefit of people other than Chevron, Wal-Mart, and Goldman Sachs. I'm entirely sure President Clinton will fulfill her obligations to them with an experienced competence second to none. I just don't think it's a good thing.
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Like she did when she was the one of the most liberal US Senators and voted the same as Bernie Sanders the vast majority of the time.
 
Tony Stark said:
Like she did when she was the one of the most liberal US Senators and voted the same as Bernie Sanders the vast majority of the time.
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At this point Clinton's got it pretty wrapped up, I think we'll get a chance to see.

I predict an even greater dissonance for the "Hillary is really a liberal" crowd than when Obama got elected and the beat went on for foreign military ********, 'war on terror' privacy infringement, lack of transparency, lack of justice system attention to financial sector misdeeds, and so forth.
 
quixotecoyote said:
At this point Clinton's got it pretty wrapped up, I think we'll get a chance to see.

I predict an even greater dissonance for the "Hillary is really a liberal" crowd than when Obama got elected and the beat went on for foreign military ********, 'war on terror' privacy infringement, lack of transparency, lack of justice system attention to financial sector misdeeds, and so forth.
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I think people are going to find Obama did a bit more than it looks like he's done. Both Bill and Hillary know how to get things done, more so than Obama did in his first term (he's unquestionably competent now).

The key is going to be that landslide which will change the Senate and at least dent the House. I also think Paul Ryan may be more willing to break the stupidity of the GOP obstructionism, especially after the mess the Party is in at the moment. Mitch McConnell needs to go.

Obama's nomination of a moderate SCOTUS justice is going to take a tiny bit of wind out of the GOP fear mongering sails if the Democrats play their cards right. Not that they will, great campaign tactics are not historically their strongpoint.
 
Final count: Clinton won PA, DE and MD by very big margins. She won CN by a clean, surprising 5%. Sanders won RI by a 12% margin.

It is over. :talk008: :bigclap :scorgi :alc: :alc:
 
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Fun article about John Boehner speaking at Harvard.

http://www.stanforddaily.com/2016/04/28/john-boehner-talks-election-time-in-office/

When specifically asked his opinions on Ted Cruz, Boehner made a face, drawing laughter from the crowd.

“Lucifer in the flesh,” the former speaker said. “I have Democrat friends and Republican friends. I get along with almost everyone, but I have never worked with a more miserable son of a bitch in my life.”
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While stating that he disagreed with Sanders on all the issues, the former Speaker also called Sanders a nice guy and the most honest politician in the race.
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His views on the other candidates were more mixed.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
Can you feel it?

Nationalism is returning both here in the U.S. and over in the soon to be abolished E.U.

No matter what happens re: Trump himself, he's an indicator.
Click to expand...

So we have a future of endless warfare and persecution of minorities who are not part of "the Nation" before us?

Ever hear of a website called Stormfront? They would love you over there.......
 
Skeptic Tank said:
Can you feel it?

Nationalism is returning both here in the U.S. and over in the soon to be abolished E.U.

No matter what happens re: Trump himself, he's an indicator.
Click to expand...

So we have a future of endless warfare and persecution of minorities who are not part of "the Nation" before us?

Ever hear of a website called Stormfront? They would love you over there.......
 
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