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Predictions of natural selection

Thanks for the post Kotatsu. I learned something new today.

No worries, I am glad to do this sort of thing. I understand there is a great deal of interest in evolutionary theory on this forum, but that only a small fraction of its members actually have access to the primary papers in which various result is posted, and thus have to rely on secondary reporting in more accessible science magazines, blogs, and such like. I try to take any opportunity I can get to reference the vast body of scientific literature that is spectacular for the people working with it, but not spectacular enough to be admitted in to the popular science press. There is a lot of exciting research going on that is more or less hidden to everyone except the scientists working on it, which is a great shame, really.

I am a bit ashamed to be unable to reference either of my two posts closer, but, as I mentioned above, if necessary, I am willing to do so when I coem back from my vacation in early August, though I'll likely have forgotten about this thread entirely by then...
 
Here are two examples of the general rule that natural selection lets you predict, before seeing it happen, that a population, given some kind of new selection stress, will adapt to it.

In Asia, only male elephants have tusks, but they don't all grow them at the same rate so they don't all get to the same size, and a few are essentially tuskless. Due to human hunting, big tusks have become a disadvantage, making the individual who has them more likely to get shot. It was predicted decades ago that this might be shifting the population toward smaller tusks and/or outright tusklessness in males. Sometime within the last few years, wildlife biologists have confirmed that this is indeed the case: tuskless males are now a larger percentage of the male elephant population, and, among those who have tusks, the average and maximum observed tusk sizes have decreased.

Monsanto wanted to make plants that could survive Roundup (a fast-acting herbicide that works on all plants by blocking photosynthesis but breaks down quickly so it doesn't have time to harm the surrounding environment). This would allow Roundup, a Monsanto product, to be used more widely, replacing various other narrow-spectrum herbicides which tended to remain active longer and thus disturb natural environments more (and which didn't kill 100% of weeds and sometimes could harm some of the crops). But they hadn't invented any kind of Roundup immunity in plants and had no idea how, so they decided to try to find it instead. Natural selection told them where to look: in photosynthesizing bacteria and algae which had been exposed to various concentrations of Roundup, because they were initially affected by it in the same way as plants but could evolve a response to it many times faster than plants could. It worked, and they began inserting the Roundup immunity gene they found into crop species, thus producing crop plants that could be sprayed with Roundup and be unharmed.

Also, Darwin's original book about natural selection contained some predictions based on it which have turned out to be right since then but weren't known at the time. Some were just about the existence of transitional fossils, such as extinct land mammals and semi-aquatic mammals connecting whales & dolphins to the rest of us as descendants of former terrestrial mammals. Another was that if a reliable and precise dating method were invented (since they had no idea what numbers of years to assign to things back then, before radiometric dating!), it would show that the relative ages between certain fossils came in the right order and had enough time between them. Another was that the mechanism for how traits are inherited and yet random variations occur (for natural selection to act on) was to be found in the organisms' chemical constitution, and indeed genetics is a complex application of chemistry. But my favorite one was that, when discussing the fact that large groups of plants seemed to be closely related to others in the wrong places, such as Africa and South America, he pointed out that we don't actually know that the continents have always been where they are now (everyone just assumed it must be so back then, so this was a subtle point of logic)... and that if anything his theory called for them to have moved and merged and split up before in order to yield the current distributions of organisms... which would not be commonly accepted by geologists for roughly a hundred years after he wrote it.
 
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I'm having a hard time understandingn this - could you explain why?
For the latter, a feature that has no function but that of serving a parasite is purely detrimental, and therefore its evolution is against the principle of natural selection, the only alternative being that it is an inactive version of a beneficial feature (either in other species or a past version of the same species). As for the former, I was incorrect in that it actually does tie more directly into common descent, but it nevertheless would be a problem for evolution if such a thing was found. Example: the "flagellar propeller" on a certain bacterium was at first glance a unique feature, but on slightly closer inspection it was found that the rotary portion consists of slightly modified parts commonly elsewhere.

It is a common creationist claim that evolution is not falsifiable. Ironically, we can easily falsify this claim in the above manner.
 
Is that the moth whose existence Darwin predicted by seeing the flower that it feeds on?
Even to point of predicting the exact length of it's tongue?

If so, I was hoping someone would bring that up, and yeah, I think it qualifies nicely. :)

Yep, the moth's called xanthopan morganii praedicta, every one who knows about orchids like angraecum sesquipedale knows that story. I think it also makes Darwin the only good "cryptozoologist" ever :D.

ETA: More confirmation of Darwin's theory applied to orchids

ETA2: The moth actually hadn't been observed to feed on the orchid until quite recently: In video goodness
 
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Endogenous retrovirus infection should parallel the fossil record.

eg: animals that have more recent common ancestors as indicated in the fossil record, should also have more shared endogenous retroviruses in their current genomes.

They do.
 
I remember hearing that Tiktaalik was discovered because paleantologists knew where to dig thanks to the predictions of evolution, maybe someone could elaborate on that?
 
I remember hearing that Tiktaalik was discovered because paleantologists knew where to dig thanks to the predictions of evolution, maybe someone could elaborate on that?
The best source for this is the web site of the people who discovered it, especially the detailed description of the search.
The basics are that they were looking for a transitional form between land animals and fish. Fossils for land animals (tetrapods) start to appear ~363 million years ago. Fossils for lobe-finned fish first appeared ~390 million years ago. Lobe-finned fish and tetrapods fossils are laid in fresh water stream and so the obvious place for the development of a transitional form is in fresh water. Thus they went looking strata with the following criteria:
  1. Exposed (so that they can find the fossils)
  2. Fresh water deposits
  3. 380-363 million years old
  4. Not already explored.
 
Here are a couple:
1. The theory of natural selections says that those who survive to reproduce will pass on traits. This means that even if the trait is detrimental to the individual it will be passed on because it is survival of those that reproduce which matters.
-diseases that kill the host, say cholera, they don't care that they kill the host. All that matters is that they survive to reproduce and infect others.
-in some herding animals that have 'harems' the dominant males gets to reproduce, but they spend a whole lot of energy maintaining and defending the 'harem', this is often very detrimental to the survival of the dominant male.
-genetic conditions that kill slowly or after the organism has reproduced occur in populations and are not selected out
-spiders where the male mating organ falls off during mating

2. Diversity of genetic material should start high and decrease over time as speciation occurs. Due to contingent history speciation will decrease the diversity of the genetic material in the genome.
-bacteria have the greatest diversity of genetic material, then it continues to decrease through fungi, plants and animals


And please point out any glaring errors i have made
 
The best source for this is the web site of the people who discovered it, especially the detailed description of the search.
The basics are that they were looking for a transitional form between land animals and fish. Fossils for land animals (tetrapods) start to appear ~363 million years ago. Fossils for lobe-finned fish first appeared ~390 million years ago. Lobe-finned fish and tetrapods fossils are laid in fresh water stream and so the obvious place for the development of a transitional form is in fresh water. Thus they went looking strata with the following criteria:
  1. Exposed (so that they can find the fossils)
  2. Fresh water deposits
  3. 380-363 million years old
  4. Not already explored.


Cheers!
 
Another complication is that 'evolution' as a theory has changed over time, and this is because some of the predictions have failed.

Specifically, Darwin was a Larmarckist. However, over the years of comparing Lamarckism with observation, Darwin concluded that features are probably not obtained through the efforts of a parent passed onto an offspring.

He hypothesized that offspring must be different than their parents in mixed and unpredictable ways, rather than exclusively in ways beneficial to the parent (confirmed - Lamarckist Evolutionary theory shelved).

Also, he predicted that inheritable factors had to be discreet, rather than fluid. ie: genes for a trait were either passed or they weren't like marbles, rather than passing an infinitely divisible quantity of the trait, like mixing paint (confirmed - germ fluid Evolutionary theory shelved - although it produced a failed offspring called "germ plasm" theory).

So, we can talk about germ plasm theory, which had testable hypotheses that failed. The theory was that traits dilute over generations. The prediction was that traits would dissipate over generations (refuted). Mendelian genetics predicted that if traits are inherited through a particulate/discreet mechanism instead, they should propagate forever unless selected for/against, in which case, the trait would expand/diminish from the overall population (confirmed).
 


Another example, this is pretty cool - the evolution of disease virulence as predicted by natural selection.

Understanding these things may be able to lead us to learning how to better deal with these diseases.
 
I don't know that I can address the OT but my favorite example to throw out to creos is the skink family of lizards. Some species in this family are taking pretty much the same evolutionary path that snakes took. Some are long with short legs, some are very long with very short legs and some are really long with only stubs of legs left. There are some great photos of these on the internet. My favorite is the one with that's really long and looks like a snake, except that it has only small stubs for legs. I've yet to see a creo that could explain that.

One tried by saying it was ridiculous, that DNA is never lost. I told him to look at the blind fish in caves. They've lost their eyeballs. All they have are empty sockets covered with translucent skin. So why would god create a fish with eye sockets but no eyeballs.

But really, you can't win. No matter how much scientific evidence give them, they just shrug it off and quote their circular arguments from their old book of myths.

Be careful and remember what Will Rogers said, "Never argue with an idiot, he'll pull you down to his level and beat you with experience."
 

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