Prediction - August 4th 2004

The Mighty Thor said:
As the date grows nearer it occurs to me that if, Ed forbid, something akin to 9/11 should happen on the predicted date, our Lunianarchy will no doubt be getting a visit from some real MIB who tend not to have a sense of psirony, and who will be asking some very serious questions of him and looking into his anarchy-prone personal lifestyle very closely. :(
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Got here late. As an aside, when I was in college (University of Illinois), the university newspaper ran a comic strip called "Go Die", and one of the main characters said something to the effect of "Oh yeah? Well, I'm going to go blow up the World Trade Center!". Either that day or the next was the 1993 attack on the WTC. Yes, the cartoonist did get a visit from the FBI or CIA (whichever one deals with these things), and for the rest of that week that character had a "Karnak" hat on and was making silly predictions.
 
Well, it's Thursday here, and no attacks. Well...perhaps an attack of the heebie-jeebies waiting for Luci's predictions to come true...
 
Zep said:
Well, it's Thursday here, and no attacks. Well...perhaps an attack of the heebie-jeebies waiting for Luci's predictions to come true...
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There is still 6.5 hours left of Aug. 4th here in California. There will be a mass insecticide tonight, but I don't think that counts.
 
It's still Wednesday here and nothing big to get Bush to delay the election yet. It depends where you are and I was wondering - doesn't august 4 cover about 24 hours, depending on time zone?
 
Now now, the 4th is not over yet.

In the meantime, suppose that we take the psychic warning seriously. Being a Prophet of Doom is such a risk free endeavor, it is no wonder that so many people profess the truth of it. If nothing happens, there will always be an 'out'. The creativity of prophets to spin interpretations is endless.

But back to the matter of risk.

Let's say there is a prediction that "X will happen at place Y"
Code: 
[b]Potential Outcomes:                                 Prophet Win/Lose[/b]
A  X happens at Y ---------------------------------Win
B  X does not happen ----------------------------Lose (see note below) 
C  X happens at (NOT Y) -------------------------Partial Win 
D  X might have happened at Y ----------------Win
E  X might not have happened -----------------Win
F  X might have happened at (NOT Y) ---------Win

Humm, so the odds are with the ability of a prophet to appear successful: Prediction is a pretty low risk activity. Might even be a NO risk activity because I have seen prophets of doom outright lose, and then deny the prediction was ever made. Or there is always the option of changing the prediction AFTER the event occurs. This last method is like shooting an arrow at a wall, and then drawing a bullseye around wherever it hit.

Adding to the success is the fact that most people do not take these predictions seriously, and so no accountability is required of the prophet:

We to not send prophets of doom a bill for reallocation of emergency equipment if the prediction fails to occur.

We do not require malpractice insurance in case a mistake is made and people are moved into danger instead of away from it.

We do not imprison prophets for causing panic or chaos resulting in injury of people seeking a place of safety.


Who owns the consequences of prophetic utterances?
Never the prophet of doom.









Fortunately I burned some incense and waved some sticks in the air, did a little dance and a holy song, asking (insert Deity of choice here) to intervene on our behalf. If we are safe by this time tomorrow it is only by Divine protection, if not, it was (insert Deity of choice here) 's will. Part of life's wonderful mystery, etc.
 
Anyone want to take beats on what his "out" is going to be?

My money is on
"I only said August 4th, I never said 2004"

Any other predictions ?
 
The dark side of this is that there is an entire population out there wishing for disaster to strike so their cherished beliefs can persist unchallenged.

My bet is that this thread would just be ignored till it drifts to the bottom. Pretending 'wrong' things never happened is a terrific success, look how it works for Sylvia.
 
luci appears to have been right!

WESTERN Bulldogs president David Smorgon conceded yesterday the club "made a mistake" in appointing Peter Rohde as coach.

Sacked yesterday after winning just eight of 41 games, Rohde has agreed to coach the rest of the season and will be paid out the final year of his contract, believed to be less than $200,000.
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I can't tell you how much emotional injury this sacking has caused to many people here...truly, a tragedy.
 
Am I right in assuming that everything East of the Atlantic is now Aug 5th? This is REALY going to cut down on Luci's odds.

This sorta reminds me of waiting for the ball to drop, and the fear surounding Y2K
  • People are waiting for a disaster to happen, even though we all know its a bunch of hype
  • It's much more boring than I thought it would be
  • I'm drunk and dancing to Prince songs
    [/list=a] I'm going to sleep, I hope were all still around when I wake up.
 
Count down.
The International Date Line at about the 180 meridian, will close out August 4 in about 5.5 hours. Unless you're on PST (Polynesian Savings Time).
After that, it will be August 5. No more, no less.
I predict when Luciintheskywithzircons fails to do anything, it will claim that, in fact, that it did.
Do "Ladybrook" ring a bell?
 
With a little over three hours to go, here's the news from the Alexandria, Virginia daily enews:

**************************************************
ALEXANDRIA POLICE INCIDENTS

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 4, 2004

BURGLARY:

3300 blk. of King St. 07-30/ 7:00 p.m. - 08-02/ 8:00 a.m. Someone entered the school's trailer by prying open the door. Once inside, the suspect vandalized the interior by painting graffiti on the walls and desks.

**************************************************

But we've got Zacarias Mousaui (or however you spell his name), the 20th September 11 hijacker, locked up here.* Maybe his al Queda buds are planning a bust-out.

*Last I heard, anyway. Could be in Guantanamo now, for all I know...
 
BTW, is it just me, or are the times in the messages on this forum all messed up...?
 
Luci..

Greatest Psi Artist EVER

In late breaking news…

The greatest attack ever planned by terrorists against Western targets was narrowly averted Today due to the intervention of Lucianarchy.

A few months ago Luci proclaimed his/her prediction on the JREF forums.

Knowing this would generate a HUGE amount of “positive” psi from all the sceptics there desperate for Luci to fail. This MASSIVE amount of energy generated by those HOPING for nothing bad to happen on August 4 2004 averted the attack.

Luci is being recommended for a Congressional Medal of Honour, Victoria Cross and Red Star (???)

I would recommend him/her for certification at the local looney bin!




BTW… Need I ask but does anyone find it amusing that the 4th ended up being a SINGULARLY slow news/attack day ?
 
Aussie Thinker said:
BTW… Need I ask but does anyone find it amusing that the 4th ended up being a SINGULARLY slow news/attack day ?
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It seems like NOTHING happened today. Oh, I won a book on ebay.
 
The west coast of the US is still in danger.

6:55PM Arizona Time and all is well.

(We really have our own Microsoft time zone!)
 
BTW… Need I ask but does anyone find it amusing that the 4th ended up being a SINGULARLY slow news/attack day ?
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Could it be that Luci is a reverse psychic?

Does anyone know where we can find a day-to-day death / injury tally for the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan? I'm interested in how today compares to the average.
 
Lisa Simpson said:
Well, my grandmother died today, but she was 96, so it was not unexpected.
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My sincere condolences anyway. I suppose somebody had to die today, but I am still sorry for your loss.
 
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