Potential link between autism and vehicle pollution

[casebro]

That's within 1,000 feet of the freeway. A whole bunch of the population lives that close.

And the 86% increase in something that is rare to begin with? People get struck by lightening even when they are not standing on a mountain top.

 

[ria_rokz]

Yes, exactly. I can think of many factors that are correlated with living near a highway other than the two they apparently controlled for (sociodemographic factors and maternal smoking).

If they think it might be air pollution, they should simply measure air quality and see if it correlates with autism. If so, that probably explains this result. If not, this result becomes close to useless (unless there's some other theory they derived from it they can test).

Generally speaking it doesn't do any good to go around checking for correlations between every random pair of variables you can think of. You need a theory, otherwise such data are often worse than useless (because they lead to unwarranted and wrong conclusions that slow progress).

But I'll confess, I have't read the article...

According the article in the OP, "The study's findings are supported by previously-uncovered evidence that oxidative stress and inflammation contribute to autism development, the authors said". So perhaps that is the theory they are going by.

Another interesting point in the article is that "'We expect to find many, perhaps dozens, of environmental factors over the next few years with each of them probably contributing to a fraction of autism cases,' said Dr. Irva Hertz-Picciotto, CHARGE's principal investigator, in the press release. 'It is highly likely that most of them operate in conjunction with other exposures and/or with genes'" .

 

[sol invictus]

Just wondering, what is the average socio-economic status of people living near one of these freeways? I thought one of the articles said it was in San Francisco. I don't think I've ever even been on a freeway, never mind living near one. I kind of live in BFN. Most of the major roadways I have seen when I go to the city don't have any residences near them.

The press article you linked to says Los Angeles, San Francisco and Sacramento. Lots of people live within 1,000 feet of freeways in those cities - including a few quite expensive neighborhoods I can think of.

 

[sol invictus]

According the article in the OP, "The study's findings are supported by previously-uncovered evidence that oxidative stress and inflammation contribute to autism development, the authors said". So perhaps that is the theory they are going by.

Then they should simply go ahead and measure air pollution. Clearly that's considerably more involved and expensive than just correlating home address-freeway distance with autism - but it's also far more meaningful.

So at best this was a preliminary study that justifies funding a real study using air pollution, but it really shouldn't be news.

Another interesting point in the article is that "'We expect to find many, perhaps dozens, of environmental factors over the next few years with each of them probably contributing to a fraction of autism cases,' said Dr. Irva Hertz-Picciotto, CHARGE's principal investigator, in the press release. 'It is highly likely that most of them operate in conjunction with other exposures and/or with genes'" .

If autism rates really have increased sharply over the last decade I find that hard to believe. Genetics obviously hasn't changed, and if there were many cumulative environmental factors, why the sudden change?

A sudden increase of that magnitude suggests just the contrary - that there is one important factor, or at most a few. And incidentally I doubt it's overall air quality, which has not changed significantly (to my knowledge) over the last decade.

 

[ria_rokz]

The press article you linked to says Los Angeles, San Francisco and Sacramento. Lots of people live within 1,000 feet of freeways in those cities - including a few quite expensive neighborhoods I can think of.

That's what I was wondering. I guess I was assuming that the neighbourhoods that started out being expensive and close to the freeway would be older by now, and the more expensive ones would be built further away. On the other hand, maybe wealthy people want to be close to the freeway for convenience. I guess I am having a hard time picturing any houses that are less than 1/5 of a mile away from a freeway. 309 metres is less than two blocks away from my house. Wow.

 

[Emet]

If autism rates really have increased sharply over the last decade I find that hard to believe. Genetics obviously hasn't changed, and if there were many cumulative environmental factors, why the sudden change?

A sudden increase of that magnitude suggests just the contrary - that there is one important factor, or at most a few. And incidentally I doubt it's overall air quality, which has not changed significantly (to my knowledge) over the last decade.

From Science-Based Medicine:

The Increase in Autism Diagnoses: Two Hypotheses

http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/?p=95

 

[ria_rokz]

Then they should simply go ahead and measure air pollution. Clearly that's considerably more involved and expensive than just correlating home address-freeway distance with autism - but it's also far more meaningful.

So at best this was a preliminary study that justifies funding a real study using air pollution, but it really shouldn't be news.



If autism rates really have increased sharply over the last decade I find that hard to believe. Genetics obviously hasn't changed, and if there were many cumulative environmental factors, why the sudden change?

A sudden increase of that magnitude suggests just the contrary - that there is one important factor, or at most a few. And incidentally I doubt it's overall air quality, which has not changed significantly (to my knowledge) over the last decade.

I am curious about the sudden change too, if what they have said is accurate. Although I will say, through my observations up here, that within the last decade more supports have become available in schools such as occupational therapists, speech therapists, and so on. I really think that this has allowed for better detection of disorders that are on the autism spectrum. I know of children who were diagnosed with PDD-NOS (Pervasive Developmental Disorder - Not Otherwise Specified) when really, if they were evaluated now, would probably end up on the autism spectrum. This comes from an area where many people do not have easy access to specialists, so sometimes physicians just do what they can. I know I'm in Canada, but are there areas like this in the states? Of course, these are just some thoughts I have on the subject and I really have no substantiation for it. That makes me think, I want to see if the rate rose similarly in Canada and other areas where they use the same criteria.

 

[sol invictus]

From Science-Based Medicine:

http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/?p=95

Yes, I fully agree that the null hypothesis ought to be that the "increase" in autism rates is an artifact - of changing standards for diagnosis, better coverage, and increased financial incentive (families with autistic children may be eligible for various forms of government aid).

But regardless, one would still like to understand what causes autism or makes it more likely to develop.

 

[ria_rokz]

From Science-Based Medicine:



http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/?p=95

I believe this article has been posted on another thread... in response to a question by DallasDad maybe? Thank you for reposting it, I'm going to save it this time. "In the 1990′s the diagnosis of autism was changed to autism spectrum disorder (ASD)". I wonder if, in some areas, teenagers and adults who had been diagnosed with other issues were re-evaluated and diagnosed with ASD, which would also contribute to an apparent increase in people with ASD.

 

[ria_rokz]

Yes, I fully agree that the null hypothesis ought to be that the "increase" in autism rates is an artifact - of changing standards for diagnosis, better coverage, and increased financial incentive (families with autistic children may be eligible for various forms of government aid).

But regardless, one would still like to understand what causes autism or makes it more likely to develop.

Agreed.

 

[Eos of the Eons]

That's within 1,000 feet of the freeway. A whole bunch of the population lives that close.

And the 86% increase in something that is rare to begin with? People get struck by lightening even when they are not standing on a mountain top.

Yeah. And, Not really. 86% more people live within 1000 feet of a "freeway", so therefore there are more people living near freeways with autism. Er, or was that 11% more live near freeways, I dunno. Either way, if you live within 10,000 feet from a freeway, is the rate of autism still less than 1/150, just like it still is if you live within 1000 feet of a freeway? Or, if you live in a busy area, as in within 1000 feet from a free way, are you just more likely to be diagnosed and get helps at school, etc.?

 

[Percent]

From Science-Based Medicine:



http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/?p=95

I believe this article has been posted on another thread... in response to a question by DallasDad maybe? Thank you for reposting it, I'm going to save it this time. "In the 1990′s the diagnosis of autism was changed to autism spectrum disorder (ASD)". I wonder if, in some areas, teenagers and adults who had been diagnosed with other issues were re-evaluated and diagnosed with ASD, which would also contribute to an apparent increase in people with ASD.

My husband, born in Berlin in '58 (what was the air pollution like in Germany? ), was officially diagnosed in the last decade. I know that he didn't say one word during the entire time of his elementary schooling in Wisconsin. English wasn't the issue as his father was American and they moved to Wisconsin when he was 6 months old. He simply didn't speak. There were other signs to the ASD, but at that time no one bothered.

Computer science was his liberation as an adult. He likes to make machines do his bidding and he communicates with them quite well.

I consider his autistic aspects to be, by and large, features not a disorder. It is nice, however, to know more about autism b/c it helps me to be more patient.

Anne

 

[Emet]

But regardless, one would still like to understand what causes autism or makes it more likely to develop.

I also agree. In the meantime (and I realize I may be wrong about this), I believe some children are being diagnosed earlier, and more effective earlier interventions are being instituted.

I believe this article has been posted on another thread... in response to a question by DallasDad maybe? Thank you for reposting it, I'm going to save it this time. "In the 1990′s the diagnosis of autism was changed to autism spectrum disorder (ASD)". I wonder if, in some areas, teenagers and adults who had been diagnosed with other issues were re-evaluated and diagnosed with ASD, which would also contribute to an apparent increase in people with ASD.

That might have been me...

One interesting (IMO) anecdote:

A friend adopted an infant, and he appeared developmentally delayed. Her pediatrician was not alarmed, but a friend suggested the child might be autistic. He was evaluated at Johns Hopkins at 19 months of age, and diagnosed.

The state she resided in had all sorts of programs that have been very helpful.

He is now in kindergarten (mainstreamed), and has a team of specialists to continue assisting him. Since he is doing well, at some point in time, he will probably test well and lose the additional help. If he falls back, then he will get help again.

 

[ria_rokz]

My husband, born in Berlin in '58 (what was the air pollution like in Germany? ), was officially diagnosed in the last decade. I know that he didn't say one word during the entire time of his elementary schooling in Wisconsin. English wasn't the issue as his father was American and they moved to Wisconsin when he was 6 months old. He simply didn't speak. There were other signs to the ASD, but at that time no one bothered.

Computer science was his liberation as an adult. He likes to make machines do his bidding and he communicates with them quite well.

I consider his autistic aspects to be, by and large, features not a disorder. It is nice, however, to know more about autism b/c it helps me to be more patient.

Anne

Thank you for sharing, that's really interesting. So, potentially, they are diagnosing adults.

I have to agree; my husband has ADHD and I don't consider it a disorder for him either. The way it affects him makes him who he is. And as you said, knowing about ADHD makes it easier to understand his motivation when he does things that are really frustrating, lol.

 

[Percent]

<snip> makes it easier to understand his motivation when he does things that are really frustrating, lol.

...like putting the cat in a bucket...?

Anne

 

[ria_rokz]

...like putting the cat in a bucket...?

Anne

LOL Well, the cat put herself in the bucket; but maybe it was to get away from him...

 

[ria_rokz]

I also agree. In the meantime (and I realize I may be wrong about this), I believe some children are being diagnosed earlier, and more effective earlier interventions are being instituted.



That might have been me...

One interesting (IMO) anecdote:

A friend adopted an infant, and he appeared developmentally delayed. Her pediatrician was not alarmed, but a friend suggested the child might be autistic. He was evaluated at Johns Hopkins at 19 months of age, and diagnosed.

The state she resided in had all sorts of programs that have been very helpful.

He is now in kindergarten (mainstreamed), and has a team of specialists to continue assisting him. Since he is doing well, at some point in time, he will probably test well and lose the additional help. If he falls back, then he will get help again.

Yes, early intervention seems to be quite helpful - as much as in training the parents as the child!

Erk... my 19 month old son is somewhat delayed, but none of the people we've seen seem worried about it. I think I just know too much and worry about it. He certainly doesn't show a lot of the "typical" early signs of autism, but I still wonder sometimes.

 

[Dancing David]

The initial study that showed the supposed "link" between vaccines and autism was at least as flawed as this one, and Wakefield never actually said there wasn't a link between the two. So, anyone who believed that link should be just as likely to jump on this bandwagon, yes?

There are very cautious in what they say.

Are you driving a bandwagon? I don't think the author of the study is.

 

[Dancing David]

That's within 1,000 feet of the freeway. A whole bunch of the population lives that close.

And the 86% increase in something that is rare to begin with? People get struck by lightening even when they are not standing on a mountain top.

That is a huge issue I have, giving an odds spread is really strange, rather than a sample of people who bear children, and what percetage of children develop autism within x of a highway.

Given the low sample numbers, this is hardly anything yet.

 

[Dancing David]

I believe this article has been posted on another thread... in response to a question by DallasDad maybe? Thank you for reposting it, I'm going to save it this time. "In the 1990′s the diagnosis of autism was changed to autism spectrum disorder (ASD)". I wonder if, in some areas, teenagers and adults who had been diagnosed with other issues were re-evaluated and diagnosed with ASD, which would also contribute to an apparent increase in people with ASD.

Exactly, Aspergers is now called 'high functioning' autism.