Post Your 2012 Predictions Here

[Ocelot]

This Thread will reappear...

Self-fulfilling prophecy^WP

 

[Brown]

11. A prominent celebrity comes out of the closet. This creates a stir for about a week, then nobody gives a darn.

Anderson Cooper seems to be getting a lot of press lately.

 

[Brown]

2. Discovery of the Higgs boson will be confirmed....

Confirmed: the Higgs boson does exist from the Sydney Morning Herald (among others). Another hit.

 

[Brown]

2. ...but there will be a discovery of a new problem with the Standard Model.

It's a little early, but there might be another hit in the making: The Higgs Boson could break physics:

If gossip on various physics blogs pans out, the biggest moment for physics in nearly two decades is just days away. The possible announcement on 4 July of the long-sought Higgs boson would put the last critical piece of the Standard Model of Physics in place, a crowning achievement built on a half-century of work by thousands of scientists. A moment worthy of fireworks.

But there's a problem: The Higgs boson is starting to look just a little too ordinary.

And a few reports are trickling out to the effect that there is certainly a newly detected boson, that it seems to be Higgs, but there is some significant doubt that it is a Higgs boson rather than something else ... which may suggest a problem with the Standard Model. More to come.

 

[Brown]

8b. ... The Republican candidate will pledge to nominate someone like Scalia.

Prior to the health care ruling, Mitt had said he would have nominated someone in the mold of John Roberts. From the CBS News Interview:

[CBS News Chief Political Correspondent Jan] Crawford: You say on your website that you would nominate justices in the mold of the Chief Justice, John Roberts. Now that he's voted to uphold this law, would you still, knowing what we know now, nominate a justice like John Roberts?

Romney: Well, I certainly wouldn't nominate someone who -- I knew -- was gonna come out with a decision I violently disagreed with or vehemently, rather, disagreed with. And he reached a conclusion I think that was -- not accurate and not -- an appropriate conclusion. But -- that being said, he's a very bright person. And I -- I'd look for -- individuals that have intelligence and believe in following the constitution.

Now the CBS web site doesn't print the full interview, but what CBS does print makes Mitt look like a blithering idiot. The statement "I certainly wouldn't nominate someone who -- I knew -- was gonna come out with a decision I violently disagreed with or vehemently, rather, disagreed with," is a jaw-droppingly stupid remark from a man who is not supposed to be all that stupid. And if Supreme Court nominees become an issue in the campaign, Mitt cannot afford to say, "Another Roberts, please!" without infuriating his base. So the odds on him speaking Nino's name with favor start to look pretty good.

 

[rcfieldz]

Syria

They will use chemical weapons....

 

[Dave Rogers]

Hey, time for a mid-term assessment. Let's see, now:

The latest winners of "The X Factor" will have the most incredible year of their lives, and appear on next year's series telling everybody how wonderful it was. However, one of the other acts will actually be more commercially successful.

Marcus Collins has had a top 10 album and single, and his cover of "Seven Nation Army" was actually pretty good. Anybody heard anything from Little Mix lately?

A new reality TV show will be aired in primetime, but ratings will be disappointing.

The Voice, anyone?

Leaked Home Office documents will trigger a minor political scandal culminating in the resignation of a Cabinet member, who will later rejoin the Cabinet in another role.

Chris Huhne seems unlikely to be back in the Cabinet, to be honest. Jeremy Hunt, culture secretary and well-known Spoonerism, is still hanging on by the skin of his teeth, which must be as thick as the skin on the rest of him. I'm claiming half a credit here.

Inclement weather conditions will paralyse the UK rail system and lead to several road closures, despite the fact (as pointed out by several commentators) that far worse weather passed without incident recently in Norway and Sweden.

Rain this time. It's usually snow, but fortunately I didn't specify that.

A poorly judged remark by Jeremy Clarkson will cause nationwide offence, and the resulting outcry will last at least three days. He will not be sacked from presenting "Top Gear" as a result.

So far this year he's upset the Indian High Commission, people with facial disfigurements, and China.

These are well tried and tested predictions by now, having come true every year since I first posted them in 2008.

I'm claiming 90% success, and it's only July.

Dave

 

[MinnesotaBrant]

I have a kid. I couldnt have predicted that. All I did was tell her to lie down for a half hour after sex rather than try to remove every last bit of semen from her body immediately after sex like she usually does and she got pregnant.

 

[Brown]

The call to arms is made, revoked,
And made again without a blink...

The a Twitter account for the National Rifle Association included this message:

"Good morning, shooters. Happy Friday! Weekend plans?"

The message struck many as insensitive, being posted after the Denver shootings. The message was removed after a few hours. As of this this writing, the NRA has not apologized, but has explained that the person responsible was "unaware of events in Colorado."

Will the NRA issue similar messages without batting an eye? It seems likely, since the organization does not seem to "think" it did anything wrong.

 

[Brown]

Some may quibble, but here's my "score" after half a year.

1. A planet will be discovered less than a hundred light years away that has the "right" gravity, temperature and atmosphere for life to exist. HIT.
2. Discovery of the Higgs boson will be confirmed, but there will be a discovery of a new problem with the Standard Model. HIT.
2a. Nearly all media outlets will insist on calling the Higgs particle "The God Particle," and a group of scientists will politely ask that this naming convention be discontinued. The scientists will be personally insulted by various religious groups because of this. PARTIAL HIT.
3. China will unveil its plans to put men and women on the Moon. HIT.
4. A large tornado will rip through a metropolitan center. HIT.
5. War will break out in South America. UNDETERMINED (but conflict about the Falklands has made news).
6. A major Star Trek actor will "beam up" to the REAL final frontier. HIT.

7. The surprise Broadway smash hit will feature something outrageous, perhaps a fake but realistic depiction of a sexual act on stage. UNDETERMINED but there was a show called "Smash" that held some popularity.
8. The U.S. Supreme Court will uphold part of the US healthcare overhaul, but not all of it. HIT.
8a. At least one Supreme Court justice will suggest that, unless the US Constitution specifically authorizes the Congress to implement a national healthcare plan, the US Congress cannot do so, no matter what. HIT.
8b. Look for at least one Supreme Court justice to become ill, which will make bench appointments a prominent campaign issue. The Republican candidate will pledge to nominate someone like Scalia. UNDETERMINED.
9. A viral video will show someone doing something stupid and getting hurt, but apparently not hurt badly. The video will be shown repeatedly because many will think it is funny. But when the person shown in the video dies of injuries he suffered during the event, a debate will occur whether the video still ought to be shown. Some will liken it to a "snuff film." UNDETERMINED.
10. A longtime television series will come to an end. HIT.
11. A prominent celebrity comes out of the closet. This creates a stir for about a week, then nobody gives a darn. HIT.
12. An expression of extreme hatred will be made against Rachel Maddow. Extreme. Rachel will take it in stride. PARTIAL HIT.
13. A titantic "Oops" bigger than any made so far by Rick Perry will dog a well-known person for several months. HIT.

14. There is a person who has been discussed often on this Forum. That person will suffer a serious misfortune, and some members of the Forum will demonstrate Schadenfreude. HIT.
15. A controversy will surround an exhibit at a major museum. HIT.
16. The biggest crime of the year will take place in California, but the biggest crime will not be the crime that involves the greatest sum of money or that produces the most victims. UNDETERMINED.
17. An unforeseen economic crisis will threaten China. UNDETERMINED.
18. Another near-Earth object will be discovered less than a month before it makes a close pass by Earth, and it will pass well within the orbit of the Moon. HIT.
19. A major scandal will surround a well-liked public figure. UNDETERMINED but there have been quite a few incidents that qualify, and there may be more.
20. Canada will announce that the penny will be phased out. ENORMOUS HIT.

21. Those at risk in 2012 include C.D. & J.A. UNDETERMINED.
22. One of the most popular books of 2012 will feature a pig. HIT.

23. I sense trouble in 2012 for "John G." (yes, this is a reference to "Memento"). UNDETERMINED.
24. An elaborate fakery will get out of hand. HIT.
25. Many will celebrate an act of heroism (of the non-military sort) by an individual who will at first be quite humble ... but this will change when the book offers, speaking engagement offers and movie offers start to roll in. UNDETERMINED but there are candidates.

26. Two major Hollywood players will depart within a day of each other. UNDETERMINED.
27. A notorious crime will occur near a national monument. UNDETERMINED.
28. Scandal and rumors will plague a significant food supplier. HIT.
29. A troublesome computer virus will involve a penguin. PARTIAL HIT, since Roaring Penguin (an anti-virus supplier I'd never heard of) seems to be making a big ad campaign.
30. A significant corporate takeover attempt will bring about lawsuits. UNDETERMINED.
31. A prominent entertainer will decide to pursue a new career, and will get advice from Al Franken. HIT.
32. The number 2-1-8 or 2-8-1 will have some significance. HIT.
33. Pat Robertson will NOT admit that the Almighty gave him faulty information about the outcome of the 2012 presidential election, nor that the "source" of the "information" was something other than the Supreme Creator of the Universe Himself. UNDETERMINED.

The poetic predictions:

The call to arms is made, revoked,
And made again without a blink; PARTIAL HIT.
Can ugly be a leader's folk
When they see him on the brink? UNDETERMINED.

A sign shall come that shall be hailed
As an omen of great doom, UNDETERMINED.
The music ends as one is jailed,
No great myst'ry in the room. UNDETERMINED.

 

[Brown]

Again, some may quibble, but here's my scorecard so far:
1. A planet will be discovered less than a hundred light years away that has the "right" gravity, temperature and atmosphere for life to exist. HIT.
2. Discovery of the Higgs boson will be confirmed, but there will be a discovery of a new problem with the Standard Model. HIT.
2a. Nearly all media outlets will insist on calling the Higgs particle "The God Particle," and a group of scientists will politely ask that this naming convention be discontinued. The scientists will be personally insulted by various religious groups because of this. PARTIAL HIT.
3. China will unveil its plans to put men and women on the Moon. HIT.
4. A large tornado will rip through a metropolitan center. HIT.
5. War will break out in South America. UNDETERMINED. It may be noted that the "War on Drugs" is the top news story of 2012 for Latin America, and various other conflict-based stories are right up there as well.
6. A major Star Trek actor will "beam up" to the REAL final frontier. HIT.
7. The surprise Broadway smash hit will feature something outrageous, perhaps a fake but realistic depiction of a sexual act on stage. UNDETERMINED.
8. The U.S. Supreme Court will uphold part of the US healthcare overhaul, but not all of it. MAJOR HIT.
8a. At least one Supreme Court justice will suggest that, unless the US Constitution specifically authorizes the Congress to implement a national healthcare plan, the US Congress cannot do so, no matter what. HIT.
8b. Look for at least one Supreme Court justice to become ill, which will make bench appointments a prominent campaign issue. The Republican candidate will pledge to nominate someone like Scalia. PARTIAL HIT, PARTIAL MISS. Supreme Court appointments were discussed but, despite the efforts of some to make the issue a prominent one, the issue did not get as much attention as other issues. Romney did not pledge to nominate someone like Scalia, but Romney's principal adviser was one of Scalia's friends (and some said, mentors), Robert Bork. The health of several justices was discussed, but none became especially ill.
9. A viral video will show someone doing something stupid and getting hurt, but apparently not hurt badly. The video will be shown repeatedly because many will think it is funny. But when the person shown in the video dies of injuries he suffered during the event, a debate will occur whether the video still ought to be shown. Some will liken it to a "snuff film." UNDETERMINED. Unlikely to come about.
10. A longtime television series will come to an end. HIT. Actually, there are lots of hits here.
11. A prominent celebrity comes out of the closet. This creates a stir for about a week, then nobody gives a darn. HIT. Again, arguably several hits.
12. An expression of extreme hatred will be made against Rachel Maddow. Extreme. Rachel will take it in stride. PARTIAL HIT. As far as I know, nothing surpassed the vile suggestion that Rachel Maddow should never have been born.
13. A titantic "Oops" bigger than any made so far by Rick Perry will dog a well-known person for several months. HIT.
14. There is a person who has been discussed often on this Forum. That person will suffer a serious misfortune, and some members of the Forum will demonstrate Schadenfreude. HIT.
15. A controversy will surround an exhibit at a major museum. HIT.
16. The biggest crime of the year will take place in California, but the biggest crime will not be the crime that involves the greatest sum of money or that produces the most victims. UNDETERMINED.
17. An unforeseen economic crisis will threaten China. UNDETERMINED.
18. Another near-Earth object will be discovered less than a month before it makes a close pass by Earth, and it will pass well within the orbit of the Moon. HIT. In fact, this prediction came true again, just yesterday.
19. A major scandal will surround a well-liked public figure. HIT.
20. Canada will announce that the penny will be phased out. MAJOR HIT.
21. Those at risk in 2012 include C.D. & J.A. UNDETERMINED.
22. One of the most popular books of 2012 will feature a pig. HIT.
23. I sense trouble in 2012 for "John G." HIT. So ... how did the candidate who touted John Galt do in the 2012 election?
24. An elaborate fakery will get out of hand. HIT.
25. Many will celebrate an act of heroism (of the non-military sort) by an individual who will at first be quite humble ... but this will change when the book offers, speaking engagement offers and movie offers start to roll in. UNDETERMINED.
26. Two major Hollywood players will depart within a day of each other. HIT.
27. A notorious crime will occur near a national monument. PARTIAL HIT. The disrespect of the "Silence and Respect" notice at Arlington National Cemetery garnered notoriety.
28. Scandal and rumors will plague a significant food supplier. HIT.
29. A troublesome computer virus will involve a penguin. PARTIAL HIT.
30. A significant corporate takeover attempt will bring about lawsuits. UNDETERMINED. We might learn of such lawsuits in the coming years.
31. A prominent entertainer will decide to pursue a new career, and will get advice from Al Franken. HIT.
32. The number 2-1-8 or 2-8-1 will have some significance. HIT.
33. Pat Robertson will NOT admit that the Almighty gave him faulty information about the outcome of the 2012 presidential election, nor that the "source" of the "information" was something other than the Supreme Creator of the Universe Himself. HIT.

 

[Stellafane]

What the hell:

(1) There will be a major US sports scandal involving refs.
(2) SETI will detect an intriguingly ambiguous external signal.
(3) There will be an extremely high-profile incident in which one celebrity attempts to murder another.
(4) One of the most respected and beloved people on earth will do something really heinous.
(5) The food at the Summer Olympics will cause an international incident.

#1. Complete HIT (see NFL replacement refs).
#2. MISS, as far as I know.
#3. MISS, unless one takes an extremely loose definition of "celebrity."
#4. This may be true, but I haven't heard about it, so MISS. (As I recall, the whole Joe Paterno thing had already happened by the time I made these predictions.)
#6. Another MISS.

Had I stopped at the first prediction, I'd have been fine. Other than that, my predictions turned out to be terrible.

 

[Brown]

21. Those at risk in 2012 include C.D. & J.A.

It has just been reported that actor Charles Durning has passed.

Had the prediction said "J.K.", instead of the similar-sounding "J.A.", the prediction would have been a stunner. (Actor Jack Klugman passed a day previously).

 

[Puppycow]

It has just been reported that actor Charles Durning has passed.

Had the prediction said "J.K.", instead of the similar-sounding "J.A.", the prediction would have been a stunner. (Actor Jack Klugman passed a day previously).

You're clearly better at this "psychic" thing than Sylvia Brown.

Sylvia Browne predicted that MS would be cured in 2012. The common cold would be cured in 2010. Obama would not be re-elected. There would be a tsunami in Florida this fall. Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie will break up. She has predicted that for four straight years.

Read more: http://www.cracked.com/blog/4-dangerously-influential-dimwits/#ixzz2GY1n8jtd

 

[Brown]

You're clearly better at this "psychic" thing than Sylvia Brown.

I agree, and I plan to say so repeatedly. Not because I am a braggart (or perhaps not JUST because I'm a braggart), but because I maintain that making good predictions does not require any paranormal or supernatural talent, and I have so demonstrated in front of all the world. I further maintain that I am a better predictor than many (perhaps all) of the "pros." I am a better predictor than Sylvia Browne, but I don't think that is saying much, so I'll go further: I am a better predictor than Nostradamus.

Most of Nostra-dumbass's predictions were not restricted to a particular time frame, and those that were so restricted turned out to be wrong. My predictions for 2012 were basically bounded to a single year. My hit rate was very good for 2012, with several partial hits, several complete hits and several predictions that were (if I may be modest for a moment) astonishingly accurate, far more accurate than anything Nostra-dumbass supposedly predicted.

Some of my predictions were SO accurate that I surprised myself. The predictions of some nearly exact events or quotes seemed eerie, even to me. The recent death of Charles Durning (he was indeed the exact C.D. I had in mind) caused me to have a momentary feeling of, "Hey, maybe I REALLY have some sort of special ability." What I'm saying is, I understand how some people can become convinced that they possess supernatural talents, even if they don't.

How did I do it? I actually used several techniques. I expect to write an essay shortly discussing some of the techniques that I used.

I can't predict whether or not it will happen in 2013, but perhaps I may make a presentation at an Amazing Meeting about how I became a successful predictor of the future.

 

[Brown]

Here is the current status of my poetic predictions:

My predictions (poetic, but referring to genuine predictions that will or will not occur):
The call to arms is made, revoked,
And made again without a blink; HIT
Can ugly be a leader's folk
When they see him on the brink? MISS

A sign shall come that shall be hailed
As an omen of great doom, HIT
The music ends as one is jailed,
No great myst'ry in the room. PARTIAL HIT.

As I noted previously, the NRA made a call to arms following a mass shooting in Aurora, took it back, then made the call again after Newtown. By the way, there is a related prediction that seems pretty close:

16. The biggest crime of the year will take place in Connecticut, but the biggest crime will not be the crime that involves the greatest sum of money or that produces the most victims.

The second half of the first rhyme referred to Fidel Castro, who made news in 2012, but did not make the kind of news that many were hoping he'd make.

The omen of great doom in 2012 could be the near-Earth object passes, including computations that a worrisome object would NOT in fact hit the planet in the next few decades. It could also be the end of the Mayan calendar, or the discovery that planet-wide ice-melting is occurring faster than had been modeled.

"The music ends" seems an eerie prediction, in view of the number of musical talents that died this year. One might also suggest that the reference to music ending and jailing might indicate that the predicted event was the incarceration of musical group Pussy Riot. Or maybe it refers to the arrest of Snoop Dogg. It's no mystery why Snoop Dogg got busted.

 

[Brown]

I have since discovered that many of my "undetermined" predictions indeed were dead-on hits or very good partial hits. At least one prediction that I called a partial hit turns out to have been a solid hit. There were only two outright misses (which might not really be misses at all, in that the events may have occurred but may not have been widely reported). I should mention that I count what appears to be at least one outright one miss as a hit, by application of interpretation techniques that have been applied to the quatrains of Nostra-dumbass. If they're fair for him, they're fair for me.

My success rate seems to be, conservatively, 75 percent; but a colorable argument could be made that my success rate was as high as 95 percent.

Yet I do not claim that such a performance would have warranted granting me a million dollar prize for some sort of truly magical ability. I leave it for a later time--and perhaps another thread--to discuss how one might develop a protocol by which one could be tested to determine whether a predictor indeed had a magical ability to predict the future.

 

[rcfieldz]

New predictions

Is this where the 2013 predictions go? Or is there going to be a new thread with the title: Post Your 2013 Predictions Here.

 

[IMST]

Is this where the 2013 predictions go? Or is there going to be a new thread with the title: Post Your 2013 Predictions Here.

'13 thread here: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=249498

 

[Brown]

How did I do it? I actually used several techniques. I expect to write an essay shortly discussing some of the techniques that I used.

I can't predict whether or not it will happen in 2013, but perhaps I may make a presentation at an Amazing Meeting about how I became a successful predictor of the future.

I have now prepared a presentation in which I have identified ten of the most important techniques that I used (and some that I did not use). This presentation would be suitable for the Amazing Meeting.

There is nothing special in the notion that there are ten techniques; indeed, one early draft of the presentations identified fewer than ten techniques, and a later draft identified more than ten. Also, there is considerable overlap of the techniques, and they often work together in concert. I plan to explain how several of the techniques worked to produce a solid--even stunning--hit. But when you deconstruct how the prediction was made, the hit doesn't seem quite so stunning after all.

If indeed I give this presentation at the 2013 Amazing Meeting, there is likely to come a point in which I will ask the audience to confirm that the predictions in question were were made, and really were published, prior to the events predicted. "Are there any forum members out there?" I might ask, and then ask for forumites to confirm: "These were REAL predictions, right?"