Popocatepetl may erupt

AdMan said:
There are communities near the volcano that may be in danger and could be evacuated, but Mexico City itself is 40 miles away.
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Pyroclasic flows can reach that far.
Individual pyroclastic flows, worldwide, range in length from less than one to more than 200 kilometers, cover areas from less than one to more than 20,000 square kilometers, and have volumes from less than 0.001 to more than 1000 cubic kilometers. Pumiceous pyroclastic flows with volumes of 1-10 cubic kilometers can reach distances of several tens of kilometers from a vent and travel downslope at speeds of 50 to more than 150 kilometers per hour, their velocity depending largely on their volume and on the steepness of slopes over which they travel. Pyroclastic flows and their deposits commonly contain rock debris and gases with temperatures of several hundred degrees Celsius. Most pyroclastic flows consist of two parts: a basal flow of coarse fragments that moves along the ground, and a turbulent cloud of finer particles (ash cloud) that rises above the basal flow. Ash may fall from the cloud over a wide area downwind from the basal flow.
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Mt St Helens lateral blast flow went about 20 miles, not 40. I would think a flow of 200 km would be from a supervolcano.

Lahars (mudflows) are probably the biggest threat and it can be seen in the geology where they have flowed in the past. The next biggest threat is ash and over time that can cause deaths from respiratory damage.
 
the Popocatepetl is not in Canada,
rather in Mexico, Mexico, Mexico!
Canada, Málaga, Rimini, Brindisi
Canada, Málaga, Rimini, Brindisi
 
Well Popocatepetl is an active volcano as is Orizaba if I recall correctly. Both dominate the landscapes around them.

I think that if Popocatepetl erupts it could potentially be bad, if the ash falls in Mexico DF, it could make poor air quality truly miserable. If something toxic like sulfer dioxide (in huge quantities) pours into the bowl of Mexico DF, that could potentially kill millions of people.

Now Pompeii scenarios a little less likely, it is only 5 miles from Vesuvius. Unlike Popocatepetl, which is little farther away, however a side blow out like Mt. St. Helen's with sufficient force and in the right direction could do some damage and if there was a huge earth quake as well, then that could again kill millions.
 
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Cool! Pity it's so slow...Though I imagine I'd soil myself if I happened to be watching when it blew.
 
Here is a much faster access to the same webcam.

http://www.iwasabducted.com/cenapred/livecam.htm

This is the Cenapred live web cam that monitors volcanic activity at Mt. Popocatépetl. Feel free to watch the volcano at your leisure and perform your own analysis. This page will automatically reload every 60 seconds for the latest cam picture. Simply right click on the image to save your photo. Can you spot any UFOs? If you can photograph a UFO (no insects, please), send your photo to us.
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Wow! Now volcanoes attract UFO's?
 
AdMan said:
I had to look it up.

I thought alfaniner had lost it. :D
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We learned it in junior high school. The Geographical Fugue. Although as teenagers we called it the Geographical Fudge. And thought the "Titicaca" part was hilarious.
 
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Here's the hazard map for Popo that was released in 2001: http://www.buffalo.edu/news/fast-execute.cgi/article-page.html?article=53370009
That map is being circulated all over the place right now as Popo is in the news, but I can't find the legend that goes with it. Best I can tell, thin red-purple lines are probably pyroclastic flows, and red and yellow blobs are lahars (proximal and distal). Blue blobs appear to be populated areas.

Dancing David said:
Now Pompeii scenarios a little less likely, it is only 5 miles from Vesuvius. Unlike Popocatepetl, which is little farther away, however a side blow out like Mt. St. Helen's with sufficient force and in the right direction could do some damage and if there was a huge earth quake as well, then that could again kill millions.
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A MSH-style lateral blast is possible, of course, but that hasn't been the dominant mode of activity at Popo for quite a while-- the last collapse like that was approximately 23,000 years ago. There's a really good overview in Macías (2007): http://www.geo.mtu.edu/EHaz/ConvergentPlatesClass/Delgado/01_SPE422_06 Macias GSA Special paper.pdf
 
volcano said:
Here's the hazard map for Popo that was released in 2001: http://www.buffalo.edu/news/fast-execute.cgi/article-page.html?article=53370009
That map is being circulated all over the place right now as Popo is in the news, but I can't find the legend that goes with it. Best I can tell, thin red-purple lines are probably pyroclastic flows, and red and yellow blobs are lahars (proximal and distal). Blue blobs appear to be populated areas.


A MSH-style lateral blast is possible, of course, but that hasn't been the dominant mode of activity at Popo for quite a while-- the last collapse like that was approximately 23,000 years ago. There's a really good overview in Macías (2007): http://www.geo.mtu.edu/EHaz/ConvergentPlatesClass/Delgado/01_SPE422_06 Macias GSA Special paper.pdf
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Pshhh,
23,000 years, a mere blink of the eye.

;)
 
Dancing David said:
Pshhh,
23,000 years, a mere blink of the eye.

;)
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True, it wasn't all that long ago in geologic time :)
If that was the last time Popo erupted, then I'd be a bit more concerned-- but there's been a lot of eruptive activity between then and now (with another major collapse), suggesting that the current eruptive regime is a bit less... energetic. Still a big ol' dangerous volcano, though, even if it doesn't self-destruct, and worth watching very closely.
 
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